Immigration Policy Opinion and the 2016 Presidential Vote
Issue relevance in the Trump-Clinton election
By James G. Gimpel on December 4, 2017
Summary Points
Approaching the 2016 election, immigration policy polarized opinion by partisan identity more than at any other time in contemporary history.
Election surveys suggest that immigration policy opinion was responsible for moving crossover voters to Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election, improving his performance over Mitt Romney in 2012.
Contrary to the post-election conclusions of Romney advisers, Romney would likely have done better, not worse, by campaigning more vigorously for immigration control.
Women were more likely to be moved to vote for Trump as a result of immigration policy opinion than men. Working class men were more likely to support Trump than Romney, but the difference is not associated with immigration policy per se.
Voters at higher levels of education voted for Trump over Romney when they were more conservative on immigration.
Democratic voters supported Trump more than Romney when they were more conservative on immigration.
Trump did worse than Romney among some groups who held liberal immigration views, including higher income Republicans.
https://cis.org/Report/Immigration-Policy-Opinion-and-2016-Presidential-Vote
