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Author Topic: Forecasting U.S. Crude Oil Production (Webinar)  (Read 1185 times)

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Offline thackney

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Forecasting U.S. Crude Oil Production (Webinar)
« on: November 21, 2017, 03:22:31 pm »
Forecasting U.S. Crude Oil Production
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/workshop/crude_production/
November 16, 2017

Key takeaways

• The November Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) is forecasting U.S. oil
production for December 2017 at 9.7 million barrels per day (b/d)

• U.S. oil production grew 340,000 b/d in H1 (first half) 2017 and is forecast to
grow by 336,000 b/d in H2 (second half) 2017

• Production in the Permian grew by 214,000 b/d in H1 2017 and is forecast to
grow by 257,000 b/d in H2 2017

• Hedging activity has likely increased with rising WTI prices

• Increased frack sand usage increases well productivity but slows well
completions
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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: Forecasting U.S. Crude Oil Production (Webinar)
« Reply #1 on: November 21, 2017, 03:29:37 pm »
In article, I noticed that the new wells coming on from Sept to Dec 2017 alone are bringing in new production of 1.5mmbpd.  That is a tremendous amount.

I also note limited decline in the unconventionals outside Permian in spite of limited new drilling/completions.  Tite zones really give stability over the long term.
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Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: Forecasting U.S. Crude Oil Production (Webinar)
« Reply #2 on: November 22, 2017, 02:00:22 am »
Bakken wells tend to lose 80% off their IP over the first two years, but stabilize after that. The80% drop in rig count here happened about 2 1/2 years ago, so most of the wells drilled during the 'big' boom have stabilized, and wells drilled since have been filling the gap with new production. There is a slowly declining DUC well population around 725 at present in the Bakken.
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Offline MajorClay

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Re: Forecasting U.S. Crude Oil Production (Webinar)
« Reply #3 on: November 22, 2017, 02:48:35 am »
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Offline thackney

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Re: Forecasting U.S. Crude Oil Production (Webinar)
« Reply #4 on: November 22, 2017, 12:40:39 pm »
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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: Forecasting U.S. Crude Oil Production (Webinar)
« Reply #5 on: November 22, 2017, 02:50:53 pm »
Quote from: thackney on November 22, 2017, 12:40:39 pm
Duc's are now tracked and updated each month:

   Drilled but uncompleted wells (DUC)
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/#tabs-summary-3
I can hardly believe they continue to add to the inventory.

With +7300 wells, that represents at an average say of $4mm per frac, almost $30 billion in business.

A lot of money.

So if any able bodied folks need a job and are willing to do so under fairly harsh conditions(like winter in ND), get some expertise on well fraccing and you will find a ready and willing company to work for.
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Offline thackney

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Re: Forecasting U.S. Crude Oil Production (Webinar)
« Reply #6 on: November 22, 2017, 04:05:22 pm »
Quote from: IsailedawayfromFR on November 22, 2017, 02:50:53 pm
I can hardly believe they continue to add to the inventory.

With +7300 wells, that represents at an average say of $4mm per frac, almost $30 billion in business.

A lot of money.

So if any able bodied folks need a job and are willing to do so under fairly harsh conditions(like winter in ND), get some expertise on well fraccing and you will find a ready and willing company to work for.

Yes, I don't know how to explain the continued rise.



https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/xls/duc-data.xlsx
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