Storms Expose Just How Huge Model Uncertainty Can Be…Even With 6-Hour Forecasts!

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Storms Expose Just How Huge Model Uncertainty Can Be…Even With 6-Hour Forecasts!

By P Gosselin on 6. October 2017

Last Wednesday evening, Florida State University graduate student Levi Cowan showed at his Tropical Tidbits site his analysis of what was later to develop into tropical storm Nate in the Gulf of Mexico.

His analysis exposed the great differences – thus huge uncertainty – between the US GFS and the European ECMWF models for the early projected tracks of Nate.

Levi shows the two different model projections below:

http://notrickszone.com/2017/10/06/storms-expose-just-how-huge-model-uncertainty-can-be-even-with-6-hour-forecasts/#sthash.w9ctbJTm.hDZrfq11.dpbs