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Danger Zone: Will North Korea Take the Highway to Nuclear War?

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DemolitionMan:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/danger-zone-north-korea-highway-230900579.html

Analysts agree North Korea is quite serious in its threat to shoot down American warplanes, even if they are flying in international airspace. The threat came in response to President Donald Trump’s latest challenge to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) via Twitter, in which he doubled down on his proclamation that the North’s days were numbered if they continued to provoke and threaten the United States.

On September 26, intelligence indicated that officials sent a small number of fighters, external-fuel tanks, and air-to-air missiles to an air base on the east coast of the country, ostensibly to place itself in a better position to intercept and target U.S. planes flying in the area. This move shows Pyongyang is serious about at least projecting an image of a willingness to follow through on its threat.

So, what happens if North Korea were to shoot down a U.S. military aircraft? What is quite clear is how the United States might respond; less clear is if the United States will respond at all.

DPRK attacks on U.S. aircraft, though rare, have happened. The last one occurred December 18, 1994; an Army OH-58 Kiowa helicopter patrolling the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) was downed, resulting in the death of one pilot and the capture of the other (he was released shortly thereafter). The most egregious violation, however, occurred April 15, 1969. A Navy EC-121 Warning Star intelligence aircraft was shot down by a North Korean fighter jet over the Sea of Japan, killing all thirty-one crewmembers.

In neither case did the U.S. retaliate. The downing of the helicopter in 1994 was far too low-level of an incident and was largely the result of pilot error. Therefore, both sides were inclined to de-escalate rapidly and move on from the incident.

After the downing of the EC-121 in 1969, however, the Nixon administration considered major response options, including a nuclear strike, against North Korea. Many factors intervened, however, and the blatant act of aggression by Pyongyang went unanswered. The administration was “ashamed” of the incident and vowed to never allow such an attack to go unanswered. For the rest of Nixon’s term, the North Koreans never again provoked the United States.

There have also been many close calls, the most recent instances coming in the previous decade. On October 20, 2000, two U.S. aircraft participating in an exercise accidentally flew into the DMZ, a move which could have easily sparked a violent reaction from the North. On March 4, 2003, an Air Force RC-135S Cobra Ball intelligence plane was intercepted by four DPRK fighters over the Sea of Japan. Though the North Koreans demonstrated hostile intent, the RC-135S continued on its way and escaped, unharmed.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/danger-zone-north-korea-highway-230900579.html

DB:
If Trump makes it clear he's not going to tolerate more threats of annihilation from NK and is going to do something about it, China is going to have to choose. Keep their proxy and what follows or remove little kim and take his WMD eliminating any need for the US to go in and deal with it on China's border. I don't think they're willing to have SK and the US take control of NK.

I also think that if China takes out NK eliminating the threat they will be seen internationally as the heroes.

We'll see.

DemolitionMan:

--- Quote from: DB on October 06, 2017, 09:53:31 am ---If Trump makes it clear he's not going to tolerate more threats of annihilation from NK and is going to do something about it, China is going to have to choose. Keep their proxy and what follows or remove little kim and take his WMD eliminating any need for the US to go in and deal with it on China's border. I don't think they're willing to have SK and the US take control of NK.

I also think that if China takes out NK eliminating the threat they will be seen internationally as the heroes.

We'll see.

--- End quote ---

I agree.

DemolitionMan:

--- Quote from: DemolitionMan on October 06, 2017, 09:55:50 am ---I agree.

--- End quote ---

Those radiation packs make me a little queasy though. Meaning that they know something we are not privy to.

Fishrrman:
DB wrote:
"I don't think they're willing to have SK and the US take control of NK."

Not without sufficient quid-pro-quo. But for the right price, they could be bought.

I assert that China would readily give up North Korea to "the South" -- in exchange for Taiwan in return.

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