What is bothersome is the actual reports coming out of the NHC vs. the graphics of the cones and wind speeds they are posting. The forecasters are not in agreement. During Charley they were ALL wrong. Some still say the west coast of FL will get the direct hit, others say the east. Then they sum it up by saying to consider the margin of error of 225 miles on day 5. Seriously?? Florida is only 160 miles wide at its broadest point. So in other words they don't really have a clue.
..."The UKMET, UK Ensemble mean, and the NAVGEM are the
models showing the latest turn, and they forecast Irma to move into
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula. The ECMWF and ECMWF Ensemble mean are in the
middle of the model pack and show Irma moving over the southeastern
portion of the Florida Peninsula. The GFS, Canadian, and GFS
Ensemble mean show the earliest turn and show Irma moving east of
the coast of Florida toward the southeastern United States. The
new forecast track will best follow the ECMWF, as well as the
Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and
it calls for the center to move over portions of the southeastern
Florida Peninsula between 72-96 h and then across the Atlantic into
southern South Carolina by 120 h. Users are again reminded not to
focus on the exact track since the average NHC track errors at days
3, 4, and 5 are about 120, 175, and 225 miles, respectively.