Why Didn’t the US Shoot Down That North Korean Missile?

[TomSea]

Why Didn’t the US Shoot Down That North Korean Missile?

 The military’s record of hitting intermediate-range missiles is less than perfect. That makes the decision to attempt an intercept much harder.

This story has been updated to reflect recent developments overnight.

North Korea launched another medium-range missile on Monday, this one right over Japan. Despite Defense Secretary Jim Mattis’ threats to shoot down missiles aimed at Guam and President Donald Trump’s Pyongyang-aimed bluster, the United States and Japan let it fly. Why? 

After the test, Trump on Tuesday said that “all options are on the table,” as every president has said for decades. But the Pentagon is still reluctant to use some of the most obvious options, such as shooting down a missile above the earth’s atmosphere with another missile fired from a ship.

The United States has 33 Aegis warships (three more are slated to arrive next year) that can launch an interceptor to hit a mid- or intermediate-range missile like the Hwasong-12 that North Korea sent over Hokkaido. Sixteen of those warships are currently in the Pacific.

Continued: http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2017/08/why-didnt-us-shoot-down-north-korean-missile/140620/?oref=d-river

[Free Vulcan]

Surprised Japan hasn't built or contracted for some missile defense hardware.

[jpsb]

Shooting down an ICBM is not an easy thing to do. Also we only have so many interceptors so was waste one or more when the missile is no threat to us or or allies. Not to mention how embarrassing it would be to try and miss.

[Suppressed]

Shooting down an ICBM is not an easy thing to do. Also we only have so many interceptors so was waste one or more when the missile is no threat to us or or allies. Not to mention how embarrassing it would be to try and miss.

Yeah, even in controlled tests, we have a pretty high failure rate.

[driftdiver]

Yeah, even in controlled tests, we have a pretty high failure rate.

I think the hit rate is 50 to 60%

[kidd]

North Korea has yet to demonstrate that it has any re-entry or detonation technology.

Furthermore, North Korea does not have any tracking capability, such as satellites or ground-based radar outside of its own borders. North Korea relies on line-of sight for validation of its tests. Or the obvious placement of a navy vessel where they intend to fire.

This last test was a Japanese issue of airspace, but there was little threat to the Japanese themselves. By NOT shooting the test missile down, the United States gains greater resolve from its Japanese ally.

[Suppressed]

Furthermore, North Korea does not have any tracking capability, such as satellites or ground-based radar outside of its own borders. North Korea relies on line-of sight for validation of its tests. Or the obvious placement of a navy vessel where they intend to fire.

Note that they have about 20 Romeo-class subs, and some have been operating off Japan recently.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/31/politics/north-korea-ejection-test-submarine-activity/index.html

US officials also noted that a North Korean Sang-O submarine was operating in the Yellow Sea and the length of its deployment was notable. Two Romeo submarines were detected in the waters off Japan -- each one operating in the area for about a week.

[Oceander]

Also, shooting down the missile would have been an overt, aggressive act, particularly if done over open water (couldn't have pieces of dead missile landing on civilians), which would have put the US in a bad position. 

[Smokin Joe]

To everything there is a season.

[montanajoe]

I think a joint test with either South Korea  or Japan would further our interests far more than taking a 50/50 shot of successfully knocking down a Nork test.

If we are going to do something, short of war, then showing cooperation with the allies in the region, having real time telemetry from both vehicles, and most importantly intimidating Kim without giving him the opportunity of being to able say the US tried and failed to stop me is far preferable....

[Oceander]

I think a joint test with either South Korea  or Japan would further our interests far more than taking a 50/50 shot of successfully knocking down a Nork test.

If we are going to do something, short of war, then showing cooperation with the allies in the region, having real time telemetry from both vehicles, and most importantly intimidating Kim without giving him the opportunity of being to able say the US tried and failed to stop me is far preferable....

[edpc]

Surprised Japan hasn't built or contracted for some missile defense hardware.

They have.  We have our missile defense radar station near Tsugaru.  They also have Patriot PAC-3 missiles and Kongo class guided missile destroyers with the SM-3 and Aegis system.

[Suppressed]

I think a joint test with either South Korea  or Japan would further our interests far more than taking a 50/50 shot of successfully knocking down a Nork test.

We've been doing joint missile defense testing with Japan already.
https://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/1074767/us-japan-intercept-ballistic-missile-in-test/

[Suppressed]

They have.  We have our missile defense radar station near Tsugaru.  They also have Patriot PAC-3 missiles and Kongo class guided missile destroyers with the SM-3 and Aegis system.

Yup.  In fact, some argue they are better suited for it than we are:

Japan Can Repel A North Korean Missile Better Than The U.S. Or South Korea
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphjennings/2017/08/30/this-country-can-best-repel-a-rogue-north-korean-missile/#19d4d5b32d79

[edpc]

Yup.  In fact, some argue they are better suited for it than we are:

They've probably done their own tweaks to the system hardware and software on the Patriots and SM-3.

Given the threat and activity, we've got eyes on the areas of known missile activity.  Some of the NK missiles are mobile, but they still have to be launched from prepped sites.  They can't be fired off on any old dirt road. 

Within two minutes of launch, we have the trajectory, impact area, and firing solution plotted.   While we are watching them, other interested parties like Russia and China are watching us. There is no reason to give away valuable technical data, unless the incoming missile is a true threat.

A successful intercept probability is increased with the presence of our Aegis ships with SM-6 and SM-3, their ships with SM-3, and their land based PAC-3s.  If the North Koreans decided to launch at Guam, they would have to run that gauntlet, then get through THAAD based on Guam.

[Fishrrman]

Each time the NORKs launch a missile, one of their subs should simply disappear without a trace.

In time they'd get the message.

[TomSea]

OPINION   
It's time to shoot down North Korean missiles
by Washington Examiner | Aug 29, 2017, 6:50 PM

Early Tuesday morning, North Korea fired an intermediate range ballistic missile over Japan's northern Hokkaido island. It broke up shortly afterwards over the western Pacific Ocean.

With this provocation, North Korean tyrant Kim Jong Un has blunted American optimism that he might be willing to trim his ballistic saber rattling. It is clear that further U.S. action is required to force him into constructive diplomacy. The time has come for the Trump administration to take action.

An invasion of North Korea would entail an immense loss of life and is clearly not on the cards. But there are measures a long way short of such hostilities that could prove effective and which President Trump should now employ. He should issue a clear statement of policy that the U.S. military will from now on shoot down North Korean intermediate or intercontinental ballistic missiles if Kim launches them in a way that poses a threat to America and its allies.

Continued: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/its-time-to-shoot-down-north-korean-missiles/article/2632898

[TomSea]

No, I don't think it is because of Bannon, still, it might be worth a mention.

Excerpted:

OPINION   
North Korea just fired a missile over Japan. Is Steve Bannon to blame?
by Philip Wegmann | Aug 29, 2017, 9:30 AM

...

"There's no military solution here," the former Breitbart CEO said in an out-of-the-blue interview with the liberal magazine the American Prospect. "There's no military solution [to North Korea's nuclear threats], forget it." Bannon said, supposedly off the record. "Until somebody solves the part of the equation that shows me that ten million people in Seoul don't die in the first 30 minutes from conventional weapons."

For all its nuclear posturing, North Korea has thousands of artillery pieces positioned north of the Demilitarized Zone and trained directly at Seoul. Any move against that regime would trigger a devastating, concentrated artillery barrage rivaling the WWI bombardments of the Somme or Verdun.

So maybe Bannon's technically right. Still, there are things that you don't say out loud while dealing with a madman. His remarks could only embolden an already aggressive regime. Perhaps his loose lips loosed an intercontinental ballistic missile?

Continued: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/north-korea-just-fired-a-missile-over-japan-is-steve-bannon-to-blame/article/2632811

[DB]

A military solution is to cut the head off the snake.

It requires enough intelligence to know where he's going to be. Then stealth drone him. The drone should have no markings or evidence of origin. He dies, no one really knows who did it.

I suppose there's an alternative route...

Put a $1,000,000,000 bounty on his head for anyone to collect. Somebody would figure it out... It would be cheaper than war.