7 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2018

[mystery-ak]

7 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2018
By Ben Kamisar and Lisa Hagen - 08/22/17 03:20 PM EDT

Next year’s midterm elections will provide Republicans with a major opportunity to build their majority in the Senate — if they can overcome President Trump’s dismal approval rating and internal party rancor.

The 2018 Senate map heavily favors Republicans, who will only defend eight seats, including just two of which are considered vulnerable right now. By comparison, Democrats have to defend 25 seats, including 10 in states that Trump won in 2016.

Despite the rough landscape, Democrats received a handful of breaks in the early months of 2017. But with so few offensive opportunities, Democrats will have to thread the needle in deep-red states just to tread water.

As the summer months tread on, here are the seven most vulnerable Senate seats of the 2018 midterm elections as they stand now.

    Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.)

Heller is the only Republican up for reelection in 2018 who represents a state that Hillary Clinton won last November. Making matters worse for Heller, he’s had a rough 2017.

His public wavering during the recent healthcare debate will hurt Heller in a state he won with only 46 percent of the vote in 2012, especially since his state accepted ObamaCare’s Medicaid expansion. By the end of the GOP ObamaCare repeal push, a poll from the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling found him with a 22 percent approval rating.

Democrats are largely falling in line behind Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), a strong challenger with backing from former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, the dean of Nevada Democrats. Rep. Dina Titus (D-Nev.) is still weighing a bid, but Democrats’ near-uniform support for Rosen could squeeze Titus out of the race and give the party more time to focus on Heller.

In the meantime, Rosen and Democratic groups have hammered Heller on his healthcare position. Perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian will challenge Heller in the GOP primary from the right, a fight that could hurt Heller with the Republican base. But as an incumbent, Heller will have heavy reinforcements from Washington Republicans who are committed to helping one of their own.

more
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/347394-the-7-most-vulnerable-senators-in-2018

[Wingnut]

The 2018 Senate map heavily favors Republicans, who will only defend eight seats, including just two of which are considered vulnerable right now. By comparison, Democrats have to defend 25 seats, including 10 in states that Trump won in 2016.

A Rats rough year in 2018! Bless their little dnc fundraising hearts who will try and fund them to victory!

[Free Vulcan]

Great time for conservatives to take a shot at some of these like Heller in the primary.

[RoosGirl]

I so wish Florida would finally dump Bill Nelson, but I don't see it happening.

[Applewood]

Gonna lose a lot more than 7 seats if the Republicans don't shape up.

[truth_seeker]

Great time for conservatives to take a shot at some of these like Heller in the primary.

It may be the case, voters in this Hillary state will only go as far as Heller type Republican.

[Cyber Liberty]

This is about Flake.

Flake pulled strings with the Maricopa County attorney to get his kid off animal cruelty charges of killing 23 dogs in his kennel's care.  I don't hear much about Green Acres these days....

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Gonna lose a lot more than 7 seats if the Republicans don't shape up.

Did you actually read the article?

The 7 seats referred to are 2 Republicans and 5 Democrats.

So you are saying that the two GOP lose and the 5 Democrats win and at least 5 more GOP get upset?

You do realize do you not that there are only 8 total Senate positions up in 2018 held by the GOP?

So you are predicting that the Dems essentially sweep the entire election?

Glad you are not predicting the weather either.

[montanajoe]

I would be surprised if Testor  loses. He is ranking member on the Senate Veterans Affairs committee. They have got a couple a bills through that Trump signed, the GOP guy just won the auditor seat last November...there are a lot of Vets up here and I'm doubtful most would think any of the folks running on the GOP side will serve their interest better than Testor...

[libertybele]

The 2018 Senate map heavily favors Republicans, who will only defend eight seats, including just two of which are considered vulnerable right now. By comparison, Democrats have to defend 25 seats, including 10 in states that Trump won in 2016.

A Rats rough year in 2018! Bless their little dnc fundraising hearts who will try and fund them to victory!

It should be, but I'm not counting out the DEMS yet in 2018 and I don't think we should get too comfortable in assuming that the Rats will lose in 2018 unless the GOP starts doing something; mainly repealing Bammycare and building the wall. The GOP could become over confident and complacent as they've done in the past and actually lose some seats. Also, every seat in the House is up for re-election.  2020 could be a whole different ballgame though. The GOP will they be defending the oval office and 21 seats will be up for grabs in the Senate.  However, as mandated by the Constitution a census will be taken in 2020 and right now it is projected that the 'rust belt' states that won Trump the election may actually lose electoral votes, though TX and FL where he won may actually gain electoral votes. Colorado and North Carolina should gain some electoral votes as well.  Redistricting is going on as well, but I wouldn't count out the Rats in 2018 just yet.

I'm hoping we can get rid of some of the RINO's in 2018 and 2020 (like McConnell)!!

[libertybele]

I so wish Florida would finally dump Bill Nelson, but I don't see it happening.

He's a relic that's been around forever, so it's going to be tough to unseat him.  Rumor has it though that Rick Scott may run for his Senate seat.  Ron De Santis is running for governor and I'm hoping the Majority Whip, Dane Eagle (though he's not declared yet) will run as well.  Two very good conservatives. Florida should turn more conservative.

[aligncare]

If Bob Menendez (D), New Jersey's senior senator, currently on trial for corruption, is found guilty, then Chris Christy will appoint a republican to his seat.

2018 could turn out to be a seminal year that could have a lasting impact on our political future.

http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/08/22/as-menendez-trial-begins-corruption-case-brings-high-stakes-114054

[RoosGirl]

He's a relic that's been around forever, so it's going to be tough to unseat him.  Rumor has it though that Rick Scott may run for his Senate seat.  Ron De Santis is running for governor and I'm hoping the Majority Whip, Dane Eagle (though he's not declared yet) will run as well.  Two very good conservatives. Florida should turn more conservative.

I read that Rick Scott may run, but I don't give him much chance of winning against Nelson.  A perfect candidate would be hard to beat Nelson and a lot of people blame him for the algae problems last year in South Florida from the Lake Okeechobee discharges, and that's a big deal here.

[libertybele]

I read that Rick Scott may run, but I don't give him much chance of winning against Nelson.  A perfect candidate would be hard to beat Nelson and a lot of people blame him for the algae problems last year in South Florida from the Lake Okeechobee discharges, and that's a big deal here.

I think Scott will unseat him.  Scott has been a popular governor and he turned around one of the worst economies in the nation. Florida was hit hard during the down turn and Scott was able to turn it around.  Florida's economy right now is booming; Florida's 2016 real GDP — was $815.1 billion, the fourth-largest in the nation behind No. 1 California, Texas and New York. Scott is also associated with more substantial name recognition than Nelson (though he's been around longer). Scott has a higher approval rating and he has a good relationship with Trump (which may or may not help him).  He'd have the insurance lobbyists and the pharmaceutical lobbyists backing him along with the other money machines. He's not exactly poor with an estimated net worth of $150 million. 

As for being blamed for the runoff of Lake O??? That's ridiculous.  That's been an ongoing problem for decades; and has been tossed back and forth in the state legislature, the South Florida Water Management District and the Army Corps of Engineers.  Improvements are coming as Senate Bill 10 passed this year addressing many of the problems and passed in the House as well.  Projects are underway and are being paid for by the Land Acquisition Trust Fund and the General Revenue Fund.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/floridas-economy-growing-faster-than-other-big-states-and-far-better-than/2325300

http://www.floridasportsman.com/2017/04/13/florida-senate-passes-sb-10-build-reservoir/

http://www.winknews.com/2017/05/02/lake-o-reservoir-bill-passes-house/

[Hoodat]

The 2018 Senate map heavily favors Republicans, who will only defend eight seats, including just two of which are considered vulnerable right now. By comparison, Democrats have to defend 25 seats, including 10 in states that Trump won in 2016.

Republicans will find a way to screw this up.  Who will be this year's Todd Akin?

[RoosGirl]

I think Scott will unseat him.  Scott has been a popular governor and he turned around one of the worst economies in the nation. Florida was hit hard during the down turn and Scott was able to turn it around.  Florida's economy right now is booming; Florida's 2016 real GDP — was $815.1 billion, the fourth-largest in the nation behind No. 1 California, Texas and New York. Scott is also associated with more substantial name recognition than Nelson (though he's been around longer). Scott has a higher approval rating and he has a good relationship with Trump (which may or may not help him).  He'd have the insurance lobbyists and the pharmaceutical lobbyists backing him along with the other money machines. He's not exactly poor with an estimated net worth of $150 million. 

As for being blamed for the runoff of Lake O??? That's ridiculous.  That's been an ongoing problem for decades; and has been tossed back and forth in the state legislature, the South Florida Water Management District and the Army Corps of Engineers.  Improvements are coming as Senate Bill 10 passed this year addressing many of the problems and passed in the House as well.  Projects are underway and are being paid for by the Land Acquisition Trust Fund and the General Revenue Fund.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/floridas-economy-growing-faster-than-other-big-states-and-far-better-than/2325300

http://www.floridasportsman.com/2017/04/13/florida-senate-passes-sb-10-build-reservoir/

http://www.winknews.com/2017/05/02/lake-o-reservoir-bill-passes-house/

I hope you are right.  Obviously I would love to see Nelson retired.

[Hoodat]

Nelson has has so much botox that he looks like he has been embalmed.

[Wingnut]

Nelson has has so much botox that he looks like he has been embalmed.

Even the worms wouldn't touch that stiff.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Nelson has has so much botox that he looks like he has been embalmed.

Pelosi needs that same treatment

[mountaineer]

     Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.)

In 2016, West Virginia went for Trump by a larger margin than any other state — 42 points.

That resounding victory hasn’t been lost on Manchin, who’s made it a point to try to work with the president and Senate GOP colleagues. Another factor counting in his favor: Manchin’s consistent record of winning statewide office in the West Virginia since 2001, despite the state’s rightward drift.

But Trump’s popularity in West Virginia has drawn interest from strong Republican candidates, and the winner will pose a serious threat to Manchin’s political future. And Democrats can’t be encouraged by Gov. Jim Justice’s decision to ditch them and become a Republican last month, a decision he announced with Trump at his side.

Rep. Evan Jenkins (R-W.Va.) and West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) are locked in another tough primary, as each tries to capture the mantle of being the “true conservative” in the race. The gloves have come off as Jenkins tries to frame Morrisey as late to the Trump bandwagon, while Morrisey focuses on Jenkins’s history as a Democratic state legislator.

Mojo's gungrabbing and flipflopping hasn't gone unnoticed by WV voters. In the upcoming GOP primary, Morrisey is a much better choice for conservatives. They're already duking it out.

 Don't know whether any Dem will challenge Joe in their primary.

[Wingnut]

Pelosi needs that same treatment

[RoosGirl]

You have to admit she represents her constituents perfectly.

[Wingnut]

You have to admit she represents her constituents perfectly.

Yes she does.

[Cyber Liberty]

Her BFF, Rosa DeLauro (Dumbass-CN).

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Good grief, that looks like the horror movie I was watching last night at midnight.

Turn it off, like I did.