‘No Good Options’ on North Korea Is a Myth

[TomSea]

Excerpted:

‘No Good Options’ on North Korea Is a Myth

    By William Tobey
    July 7, 2017 - 8:28 am
   
‘No Good Options’ on North Korea Is a Myth

...

So if neither military nor diplomatic means are viable, are there no good options? The North can be deterred from launching a major attack, as it has been for over six decades, by the threat of an overwhelming response. Moreover, as the economic divergence between the prosperous South (the only country in the last 20 years to join the ranks of the developed world) and the pitiable North (where squalor pervades) continues to grow, so too will eventually irresistible pressures for change. Skeptics answer that we have hoped for decades that the North would collapse, but remain disappointed. The same was said of the Soviet Union in the 1980s. Moreover, as we bide our time, it is the North that suffers, not the United States or its allies. In the meantime, there are several concrete steps we must take to defend ourselves from the attacks that are emanating from the North, or might emerge in the future.

We need both better cyber defenses and an offensive strategy that will deter attacks and respond to North Korean assaults, exacting retribution for cases like the Sony hack. We should increase monitoring and interdiction efforts to guard against the possibility that North Korea could export part of its growing stocks of fissile material and nuclear weapons — for example, requiring inspection of North Korean aircraft and ships seeking to transit sovereign airspace or waters. Missile defenses against both theater and long-range systems should be further improved. We should more vigorously sanction Pyongyang’s proliferation and illicit activities, including selective secondary sanctions on Chinese entities. Here, the efforts against Iran’s nuclear program provide a model. Seoul should consider deploying a system akin to Israel’s Iron Dome defense against artillery and rocket forces, especially one based an advanced technologies like laser weapons. In sum, the United States should seek to contain North Korea tightly until peaceful reunification and denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula becomes possible. All of this is best done in cooperation with allies and other nations.

Continued: http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/07/07/no-good-options-on-north-korea-is-a-myth/

FP, Foreign Policy has a paywall; but come out with some interesting viewpoints, hence, an excerpt.

There are no good options in dealing with North Korea.   

FP; often I don't agree with their analysis, just posting.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

"Seoul should consider deploying a system akin to Israel’s Iron Dome defense against artillery and rocket forces, especially one based an advanced technologies like laser weapons. .

That sentence confirms that the writer of that piece is utterly clueless.  The NK's have at least a thousand artillery and rocket tubes within range of Seoul, capable of firing (more or less) simultaneously, a couple of times a minute.  There is no conceivable way for Iron Dome or anything else to put a discernable dent in that kind of barrage.  It would be a tremendous waste of time and effort.

The way to stop a barrage like that is by attacking the tubes that are firing, not trying to shoot down projectiles that are already in the air.

[HonestJohn]

That sentence confirms that the writer of that piece is utterly clueless.  The NK's have at least a thousand artillery and rocket tubes within range of Seoul, capable of firing (more or less) simultaneously, a couple of times a minute.  There is no conceivable way for Iron Dome or anything else to put a discernable dent in that kind of barrage.  It would be a tremendous waste of time and effort.

The way to stop a barrage like that is by attacking the tubes that are firing, not trying to shoot down projectiles that are already in the air.

More like 10,000 artillery pieces alone, in hardened bunkers, pre-aimed for Seoul.  Bunkers like these, dug into the native granite that makes up the Korean peninsula:



And artillery pieces are dumb weapons, with no guidance or propellant, so any sort of laser version of the Iron Dome will need to have the power to punch through an iron round and cook off the explosive... for tens of thousands of rounds per minute.  We could try and hit each one, individually, providing the North Koreans are polite enough to leave their blast doors open after they fire... but we'll have to shoot a missile into each opening, for bombing won't do squat when the hills are made of granite (one of the harder rocks).

This author has no clue as to what the situation is regarding North Korea.

[TomSea]

I'm sure the author has some clue as to artillery on the ground. Still, isn't the same as a nuclear weapon that this is all about.

[TomSea]

Bolton:

The former U.S. diplomat argued that reunification of North Korea and South Korea was necessary in order to resolve the hostility between the two nations.

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/341138-bolton-north-korea-a-very-ugly-piece-of-baggage-for-china

That's got be nearly a zero chance of that happening.  We could likewise say Bolton doesn't know what he is talking about as well.

Article was posted in this forum too.

[skeeter]

More like 10,000 artillery pieces alone, in hardened bunkers, pre-aimed for Seoul.  Bunkers like these, dug into the native granite that makes up the Korean peninsula:



And artillery pieces are dumb weapons, with no guidance or propellant, so any sort of laser version of the Iron Dome will need to have the power to punch through an iron round and cook off the explosive... for tens of thousands of rounds per minute.  We could try and hit each one, individually, providing the North Koreans are polite enough to leave their blast doors open after they fire... but we'll have to shoot a missile into each opening, for bombing won't do squat when the hills are made of granite (one of the harder rocks).

This author has no clue as to what the situation is regarding North Korea.

The North Koreans must assume we will be polite enough to respond to their 65 year old bombardment plan by NOT delivering explosives in kind to their capital city and command & control centers. We have tactical options now that were unavailable a few decades ago.

[TomSea]

A "conventional war" at that can happen at any time, I gather.

[HonestJohn]

The North Koreans must assume we will be polite enough to respond to their 65 year old bombardment plan by NOT delivering explosives in kind to their capital city and command & control centers. We have tactical options now that were unavailable a few decades ago.

You are operating under the assumption that:

1. the North Korean leadership has no plans to evacuate their leadership from Pyongyang before they initiate hostilities

2. that they give two <bleeps> about civilian casualities

3. that the US military will target civilians

[skeeter]

You are operating under the assumption that:

1. the North Korean leadership has no plans to evacuate their leadership from Pyongyang before they initiate hostilities

2. that they give two <bleeps> about civilian casualities

3. that the US military will target civilians

No need to target civilians. And I suppose the Nork leadership might not really care if they have any infrastructure nor means to control their military or country, as long as they're safe in their caves.