Author Topic: Why the Sumatra earthquake was so severe  (Read 3156 times)

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Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: Why the Sumatra earthquake was so severe
« Reply #25 on: June 01, 2017, 07:11:08 pm »
Interesting information, thanks to all. That being said, until we can reliably purge all of the fanatically anti-conservative ('Crat) participants from science agencies, organizations, any conclusion, conjecture, warning, prediction, explanation or hypothesis must be taken with a grain of salt the size of the Rock of Gibraltar.

See, there is a new scientific axiom at work in our modern world- leftists lie. Constantly, enthusiastically and without the slightest remorse. Leftists who happen to work in technical fields are among the worst of all leftist liars because they believe that they will not be challenged to substantiate their lies by many with the ability to comprehend the technical elements involved.
In all fairness, even liberals can do good science. Agenda driven liberals, those out to prove a point at the expense of all else, will be far more likely to ignore the data and draw unsupported conclusions, especially if there is money and/or prestige involved. 

Doing good science is about half just letting the evidence answer the question, no matter what you thought the answer might be. The rest is asking the right questions, and being able to acquire good and unbiased data. A little luck doesn't hurt, either.

As an undergrad, we'd take field trips and start with a half dozen ideas how a particular sequence of rocks came to be, depositional environments, etc. We'd start eliminating those hypotheses the evidence refuted, or just did not support,  and sometimes we'd be left with a blank slate and start over. Usually we got down to a couple of possibilities, and we'd take sides and try to prove or disprove the one we embraced for the moment. If you found evidence that shot down your own idea, you actually got more cred, and when we were done, we had an answer, more often than, not that fit everything before us.

Then we'd go down the road and hit another outcrop and see if it still worked.

Sometimes, like in the cyclothems of Eastern KY, it didn't. Back to the drawing board...sometimes for a more complex model, sometimes for a simpler one, and commonly drawing on the sediments in modern depositional environments to work backwards to figure out what it was like where we stood long, long ago.  Fascinating, fun, but not married to a specific hypothesis, and always listening to the story the rocks had to tell, and trying to figure out that language as you go.

But sooner or later, you end up someplace where the only correct answer is "I don't know".

It is why I found geology to be fun, an ongoing brain-teaser, that is everywhere on this planet, and with some changes in fundamental rules, on other planets, too. We'll never have all the answers, and with each one there are more questions. So, there is the ever present paradox: The more we learn, the less we know.  :laugh:

Or, to quote Albert Einstein:
Quote
As the diameter of a circle of light increases, so does the circumference of the darkness around it.

How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline LateForLunch

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Re: Why the Sumatra earthquake was so severe
« Reply #26 on: June 01, 2017, 07:57:15 pm »
In all fairness, even liberals can do good science. Agenda driven liberals, those out to prove a point at the expense of all else, will be far more likely to ignore the data and draw unsupported conclusions, especially if there is money and/or prestige involved. 

Doing good science is about half just letting the evidence answer the question, no matter what you thought the answer might be. The rest is asking the right questions, and being able to acquire good and unbiased data. A little luck doesn't hurt, either.

As an undergrad, we'd take field trips and start with a half dozen ideas how a particular sequence of rocks came to be, depositional environments, etc. We'd start eliminating those hypotheses the evidence refuted, or just did not support,  and sometimes we'd be left with a blank slate and start over. Usually we got down to a couple of possibilities, and we'd take sides and try to prove or disprove the one we embraced for the moment. If you found evidence that shot down your own idea, you actually got more cred, and when we were done, we had an answer, more often than, not that fit everything before us.

Then we'd go down the road and hit another outcrop and see if it still worked.

Sometimes, like in the cyclothems of Eastern KY, it didn't. Back to the drawing board...sometimes for a more complex model, sometimes for a simpler one, and commonly drawing on the sediments in modern depositional environments to work backwards to figure out what it was like where we stood long, long ago.  Fascinating, fun, but not married to a specific hypothesis, and always listening to the story the rocks had to tell, and trying to figure out that language as you go.

But sooner or later, you end up someplace where the only correct answer is "I don't know".

It is why I found geology to be fun, an ongoing brain-teaser, that is everywhere on this planet, and with some changes in fundamental rules, on other planets, too. We'll never have all the answers, and with each one there are more questions. So, there is the ever present paradox: The more we learn, the less we know.  :laugh:

Or, to quote Albert Einstein:

"I am certain that there is too much certainty in the world." - Dr. Michael Crichton

https://www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/5194.Michael_Crichton
GOTWALMA Get out of the way and leave me alone! (Nods to General Teebone)

Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: Why the Sumatra earthquake was so severe
« Reply #27 on: June 01, 2017, 09:25:38 pm »

Using that information: Oregon State University researchers determined:
Using interval analysis, basically determining the average time between earthquakes and attempting to apply that to the last historically known earthquake there (1700, by Japanese records of harvested rice crops destroyed in the warehouses by the tsunami) the zone is considered 'overdue' for a major earthquake, but probabilities for one in the next 50 years are given at 40 percent. Because stresses build over time, even though the mechanisms which cause that buildup are not necessarily constant and steady, the time interval is one indicator of increasing risk, with the assumption that stress on the fault zone has increased, much as it has in the past.
thx.  my daughter lives up in Seattle so I am always nervous for her.

If a quake strikes, I hope she has already vacated the place, and Microsoft stays, so we can be an Apple country.

Quote
Now, one of the flaws in the concept of uniformitarianism is that though processes operate under the same fundamental physical laws, processes don't necessarily operate at the same speed or intensity over time, and that is what makes predictions so problematical. That said, the general indication is that earthquake risk for the region is increasing, and with the historical frequency for major earthquakes higher (with slightly less severe earthquakes) in the south part of the zone, that is where the next earthquake seems more likely.

As yet, the experts won't predict an earthquake at some given time and place, mainly because they could easily end up in a 'cry wolf' situation. Failure to predict would make them the subject of potentially life-threatening animosity, predictions that did not manifest themselves would cost millions or billions in lost revenues and likely many lives in the ensuing panic, so they just don't go there. I don't blame them.

Here , for those who are interested is a link to the study abstract with other links to reference studies and the main paper (USGS): Turbidite Event History—Methods and Implications for Holocene Paleoseismicity of the Cascadia Subduction Zone
that is the same attitude that meteorologists have, use statistics but do not overly rely upon them.

My dad was a meteorologist his entire life, and I recall that wisdom from him.
No punishment, in my opinion, is too great, for the man who can build his greatness upon his country's ruin~  George Washington

Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: Why the Sumatra earthquake was so severe
« Reply #28 on: June 01, 2017, 10:32:22 pm »
thx.  my daughter lives up in Seattle so I am always nervous for her.
That's normal, and big cities have their share of dangers just being what they are. I hope your worries are ever proven unnecessary, for both your sakes. 
Quote
If a quake strikes, I hope she has already vacated the place, and Microsoft stays, so we can be an Apple country.
Yep, if she is slow there's going to be a line. If where she is is stable and secure the exfiltrating herd may prove to be more dangerous an environment than hunkering down.[upote]
that is the same attitude that meteorologists have, use statistics but do not overly rely upon them.

My dad was a meteorologist his entire life, and I recall that wisdom from him.
[/quote]He's right. Even the stockbrokers got it: "Past performance is no guarantee of future returns."
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: Why the Sumatra earthquake was so severe
« Reply #29 on: June 02, 2017, 03:33:24 am »
I never claimed to be a scholar or a gentleman.
NO worries.  No one would ever make that claim for you.
Quote

A smart ass ......?

You betcha.
You betcha.
No punishment, in my opinion, is too great, for the man who can build his greatness upon his country's ruin~  George Washington

Offline LateForLunch

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Re: Why the Sumatra earthquake was so severe
« Reply #30 on: June 02, 2017, 03:32:51 pm »
My dad was a meteorologist his entire life,

Wow! He could read minds?

GOTWALMA Get out of the way and leave me alone! (Nods to General Teebone)

Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: Why the Sumatra earthquake was so severe
« Reply #31 on: June 02, 2017, 05:09:14 pm »
Wow! He could read minds?


He could sure read mine at times.
No punishment, in my opinion, is too great, for the man who can build his greatness upon his country's ruin~  George Washington