Don’t Believe the Hype About Jon Ossoff

[Frank Cannon]

https://newrepublic.com/article/141945/dont-believe-hype-jon-ossoff

Don’t Believe the Hype About Jon Ossoff
The Democrat might steal a Republican congressional seat in Georgia. Or not. Either way, the election won't reveal much about the Trump resistance.
By Graham Vyse
April 11, 2017

There’s a hell of a lot riding on Democrat Jon Ossoff’s virgin bid for elected office. The 30-year-old former congressional aide and documentary filmmaker is running in a special election for Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District—a seat once held by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and recently vacated by Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price. This affluent suburban district outside Atlanta used to be solidly Republican—it hasn’t sent a Democrat to Congress since 1979, and Mitt Romney carried the district by 23 points in 2012—but Hillary Clinton nearly beat President Donald Trump there in last November’s election. Now, buoyed by a record $8.3 million in fundraising thanks to help from House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and other national Democrats, Ossoff has turned his race into a tossup—and potentially the party’s first big victory of the Trump era.

Republicans are increasingly worried about their ability to hold the seat against a man who urged his supporters to “Make Trump Furious” in his first major email fundraising pitch. Should Ossoff win—either by clearing 50 percent in the first round of voting on April 18, when nearly 20 candidates face off, or winning the expected June 20 runoff—there’s no question his victory would be a rare ray of hope for a demoralized minority party in dire need of young talent.

But many in the national media, and some on the political left, think this race has even bigger implications. New York magazine recently labeled Ossoff the “Trump-Hate Weather Vane,” with writer Olivia Nuzzi calling Ossoff’s campaign “an experiment of sorts, a Trump-backlash trial balloon that might ... tell us just how much the president has reshaped the electoral map. It may also tell us that Democrats will have to do a whole lot more than just ride the wave of Trump hate to have a real chance of puncturing House Republicans’ red wall in 2018.” The New York Times similarly called the race “an early test of Democrats’ ability to capitalize on Mr. Trump’s polarizing presence,” reporting that “the contest is viewed as a major test of whether a wave of left-wing activism since Mr. Trump’s inauguration will produce change at the ballot box.” CNBC and Vox wrote much the same, and David Nir—political director for the liberal blog Daily Kos, a primary driver of Ossoff’s national fundraising—told CNN the race “very well could be a test case for the future of Democratic targeting.” “It’s a bellwether for what the Democratic Party is going to be about,” Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez told the network, which described him as “almost giddy about the prospects for the race.”

Exciting as Ossoff’s victory would be for Democrats early in Trump’s presidency—and for national media outlets in an off-year with few compelling elections—there’s plenty of reason to doubt his campaign will be a predictor of the party’s success, or failure, in turning anti-Trump sentiment into electoral gains. That Democrats across the country are investing so much money and emotional energy in Ossoff says more about the party than it does about this particular race.

Stacey Abrams, the Democratic minority leader of the Georgia House, understands the temptation to put so much weight on the upcoming special election. “You have this veteran of the conservative movement who gets called up to the White House to serve,” she said of Price, “and in walks this charismatic, smart, attractive young man, who carries with him the hopes and dreams of Democrats across the country.” But Abrams, who says Ossoff’s race “certainly has the ability to act as a barometer for our national affairs,” nonetheless argues “it’s dangerous to try to use one moment as emblematic of an entire national mood.”

The danger for Democrats, specifically, is that a loss could advance the narrative that the Trump resistance is weaker than expected. As Politico reported last month:

    Just a few high-profile losses in races framed as referendums on the Trump agenda, Democrats fear, and the currently heightened level of engagement and hope might fall off the cliff.

    “I would caution heavily against resting the entire future of a party on the outcome of a special election,” warned Rebecca DeHart, the Georgia Democratic Party’s executive director.

“These special elections can be flukey,” Kyle Kondik, managing editor of the election analysis website Sabato’s Crystal Ball, told me. “I’m always necessarily leery of attaching too much importance to these specials, particularly since the midterm is so far away.” Historically, Kondik notes, some special elections for Congress have foreshadowed midterm gains for both parties. After Gerald Ford left the House to be vice president in 1973, Democrat Richard Vander Veen managed to win his solidly Republican district in Michigan. Sabato’s Crystal Ball described that election as “an electrifying victory that foreshadowed the Democratic Watergate landslide of November 1974.” More recently, former Representative David Jolly won a narrow victory in his Florida district in 2014, foreshadowing Republican pickups that fall.

But there have also been plenty of special elections that foreshadowed nothing, such as the Democratic victory of former Representative Mark Critz from Western Pennsylvania in May of 2010. The Associated Press reported at the time: “An aide to the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha won a special election to fill the final months of his boss’s term—a nationally watched contest considered a potential bellwether for this fall’s midterm election.” Democrats got demolished in the midterms later that year.

The way Kondik sees it, the Ossoff campaign is “this perfect storm where Democrats who are still shell shocked from Donald Trump’s victory are looking for some outlet for their rage.” Democratic challengers in 2018 are unlikely to raise the amount that Ossoff has, and they will face sitting members of Congress with the advantage of incumbency. “It’s different when you’re running in an open seat than when you’re challenging, say, a Barbara Comstock or Ileana Ros-Lehtinen,” Kondik said, naming a pair of Republican congresswomen from districts Hillary Clinton won last fall. “There are some pretty talented Republican incumbents in these frontline seats.”

More at link.

[Frank Cannon]

After all the MSM hype about a huge backlash against Donny with the Estes race, I took a look around to see what else the Left is fabricating into some sort of anti Trump event. This Ossoff guy is on their radar and another know nothing loser who is running in a red district. The irrational Left have funneled $8 mill into his House race which is absurd.

[EC]

Good find. They are desperate for anything they can spin as a win, aren't they.

[Frank Cannon]

Good find. They are desperate for anything they can spin as a win, aren't they.

The Left is despondent tonight because once again they were pumped up that they would rout in that Kansas race. I noted this guy being brought up on a couple of the Leftists posts as a big deal coming up next week. Tom Price won that seat last time by a huge margin. 62-38%. Makes me curious why in the hell anyone would think that is a pick up for the Rats in that solid a red district. This article pretty much says what I have been thinking. The Left is so demoralized they are looking for any shred of legitimacy they can.

[EC]

I'm all in favor of them wasting their money on hopeless races. Donors start to feel ripped off after a few elections with no return on their investment. Makes them less willing to pry open the wallet when it would make a difference.

I can see why they'd go for it in this case though. Their #resistance thing is fragile (as you'd expect from something that relies on snowflakes) and, without a big win of a concrete kind, is going to fade, just like the Occupy movement faded. While the Left in general has historically taken a very long term, incremental approach to getting what they want, which like it or not worked, the shock troops are now very much the instant gratification generation. If it doesn't happen right now, they get bored and stressed and quit.