I know it's the NYT, but it's a fair assessment.A declaration by Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson that the United States would consider pre-emptive military action against North Korea raises a question that has dogged American military planners for 20 years: How could this be made to work?
The United States has long threatened force. The sincerity of such threats has always been ambiguous, as they are often meant less to prepare for war than to act as a deterrent to North Korea and a reassurance of the commitment by the United States to South Korea.
But there is a reason that, even as North Korea’s weapons programs have passed red line after red line, the United States has never followed through.
Almost any plan would bring a high risk of unintended escalation to all-out war, analysts believe. It would place millions of South Korean and Japanese civilians in the cross hairs of North Korean weapons with few guaranteed benefits.
That officials would even raise a pre-emptive attack shows the growing severity of the crisis, but the problems associated with any such plan demonstrate why that crisis has remained unsolved for two decades.
Three Unappealing Choices
A pre-emptive attack can generally mean one of three things. Mr. Tillerson, in keeping with past American statements, did not clarify which of those options were on the table but ruled none of them out.
Here is a brief guide to each:
1. A Single Strike to Halt a Missile Launch
How it would work: Mike Mullen, a former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in September at the Council on Foreign Relations that such an attack would be more “self-defense” than pre-emption.
If North Korea appears poised to launch a nuclear-armed missile, he said, American strikes could “take out launch capabilities on the launchpad or take them out once they’re launched.”
The challenge: It may not be so easy as hitting launchpads out in the open. In wartime, North Korea would probably use mobile launchers, hidden around the country in locations such as tunnels. Striking every launcher before it could be used would be difficult.
The risk: This would almost certainly be too late to prevent all nuclear missiles from getting off the ground and, given that missile defense is no guarantee, through to their targets.
More:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/18/world/asia/us-north-korea-weapons.html
