Author Topic: No Peak Oil For America Or The World  (Read 4619 times)

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Offline thackney

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Re: No Peak Oil For America Or The World
« Reply #25 on: March 07, 2017, 07:52:42 pm »
All this romance of hydrates is so warm and mushy I hate to interfere, but, placing my engineer cap back on, to date there is no production of this anywhere in the world and will likely not be for quite some time.

An esoteric dialogue, as Dr. Cooper would say, and not practical at least until the day we are all on this thread in the ground and quite cold.

No commercial production, but test wells have flowed on the Alaskan North Slope.  Just trying to expand the technology to make it economical.  Just like they were doing with horizontal drilling, hydraulic fracturing and others in years past.

We have already proven the reserve and the technology.  Just the trying to get the cost down now.
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Offline thackney

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Re: No Peak Oil For America Or The World
« Reply #26 on: March 07, 2017, 07:58:47 pm »
All this romance of hydrates is so warm and mushy I hate to interfere, but, placing my engineer cap back on, to date there is no production of this anywhere in the world and will likely not be for quite some time.

An esoteric dialogue, as Dr. Cooper would say, and not practical at least until the day we are all on this thread in the ground and quite cold.

Recovery of Thick Deposits of Massive Gas Hydrates from Gas Chimney Structures, Eastern Margin of Japan Sea: Japan Sea Shallow Gas Hydrate Project
https://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Oil-Gas/methane%20hydrates/MHNews-2017-Jan.pdf

GMGS4 Gas Hydrate Drilling Expedition in the South China Sea
https://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Oil-Gas/methane%20hydrates/MHNews-2017-Jan.pdf#page=7

Laminar Versus Massive Nature of Hydrate-Bearing Sands in Well GC955-H: Insights from Rock Physics Modeling
https://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Oil-Gas/methane%20hydrates/MHNews-2017-Jan.pdf#page=15

Reservoir Systems in the Offshore of India: Results of the India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02
https://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Oil-Gas/methane%20hydrates/MHNews_2016_Spring.pdf

Gas Hydrate Occurrences in the Black Sea – New Observations from the German SUGAR Project
https://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Oil-Gas/methane%20hydrates/MHNews_2015_December.pdf#page=6

Initial Interpretation of Results from the Iġnik Sikumi Gas Hydrate Exchange Field Trial
https://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Oil-Gas/methane%20hydrates/MHNews_2015_April.pdf#page=10
Life is fragile, handle with prayer

Online Smokin Joe

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Re: No Peak Oil For America Or The World
« Reply #27 on: March 07, 2017, 09:57:32 pm »
So like the active layer on top of the permafrost, it is the cycle of time from cooling winter to warming summer that makes the difference.  There is too much mass of water to lose enough heat to freeze the arctic waters solid during the winter before the cycle of heating begins and melting goes on to summer.

During the ice age, the warming period is far smaller and the cooling is deeper and longer.  Perhaps I'm too focused on the Arctic but this seems to prevent the release of more methane from hydrates.  We found on the north slope that molecular structure is rather stable, trapping the methane and taking significant energy input to collapse the lattice.
Think Global, and don't ignore the pressure factor. As the seas drop because the water is tied up in miles thick ice sheets on the continents, the pressure comes off the hydrates (shorter water column above them). The hydrates in the continental margins get above the gas/water curve (especially in the tropics where temps are warmer), and de-gas, raising methane levels in the atmosphere. Global warming, in spite of high albedo from the ice sheets nearer the poles.
During the thaw, sea levels rise again, hydrostatic pressures on the continental margins are high enough to sustain hydrate formation again, more CH4 goes into hydrates, and the process slows and finally peaks out, ending the warming cycle.

Of course, other factors such as volcanic activity, cosmic impacts, plate movement, ocean circulation, and especially solar output would affect the cycle, too, perhaps even more than the methane. 
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: No Peak Oil For America Or The World
« Reply #28 on: March 07, 2017, 10:18:38 pm »
Recovery of Thick Deposits of Massive Gas Hydrates from Gas Chimney Structures, Eastern Margin of Japan Sea: Japan Sea Shallow Gas Hydrate Project
https://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Oil-Gas/methane%20hydrates/MHNews-2017-Jan.pdf

GMGS4 Gas Hydrate Drilling Expedition in the South China Sea
https://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Oil-Gas/methane%20hydrates/MHNews-2017-Jan.pdf#page=7

Laminar Versus Massive Nature of Hydrate-Bearing Sands in Well GC955-H: Insights from Rock Physics Modeling
https://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Oil-Gas/methane%20hydrates/MHNews-2017-Jan.pdf#page=15

Reservoir Systems in the Offshore of India: Results of the India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02
https://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Oil-Gas/methane%20hydrates/MHNews_2016_Spring.pdf

Gas Hydrate Occurrences in the Black Sea – New Observations from the German SUGAR Project
https://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Oil-Gas/methane%20hydrates/MHNews_2015_December.pdf#page=6

Initial Interpretation of Results from the Iġnik Sikumi Gas Hydrate Exchange Field Trial
https://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Oil-Gas/methane%20hydrates/MHNews_2015_April.pdf#page=10
Spoken like a true scientist.  You would do @Smokin Joe proud. I may need to say  for those bankers among us: NOTHING PROVEN only speculation.
No punishment, in my opinion, is too great, for the man who can build his greatness upon his country's ruin~  George Washington

Offline thackney

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Re: No Peak Oil For America Or The World
« Reply #29 on: March 07, 2017, 10:22:00 pm »
NOTHING PROVEN

Methane flowing from wells drilled into hydrates formations is nothing proven?

This is not theory, it is a working (but so far expensive) result.
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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: No Peak Oil For America Or The World
« Reply #30 on: March 07, 2017, 10:33:44 pm »
Methane flowing from wells drilled into hydrates formations is nothing proven?

This is not theory, it is a working (but so far expensive) result.
Where are the reserves on a company's books that say it is proven?

A proven lab test is one thing, but a reserves engineer wants real meat.
No punishment, in my opinion, is too great, for the man who can build his greatness upon his country's ruin~  George Washington

Online Smokin Joe

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Re: No Peak Oil For America Or The World
« Reply #31 on: March 08, 2017, 12:09:43 am »
Where are the reserves on a company's books that say it is proven?

A proven lab test is one thing, but a reserves engineer wants real meat.
Spoken like a production hand!  :laugh:

Stepping away from the 'how it all works' theory of planetary temperature regulation, I think we have more accessible, more economical sources of natural gas onshore or in conventional reservoirs offshore--and will have for some time.

The trick that I see is to not become too reliant on any one form of energy, and to explore for and at least test the economics of reserves beyond the known sources of conventional fuels we are currently utilizing. If nothing else we'll know what we need to know to produce them what tools and methods will need to be developed/improved, and what price point/utilization level that will become economical to do.

It'd be neater than grits to have some form of slicked up 'magic' energy source that would run vehicles and heat homes and power industry but we don't. Until then, some means will be more practical than others for specific applications, and we'll need some sort of balance.

While no one wants soot filled skies laced with toxins, at some point the environmental jihad needs to fold its tents and take a sabbatical. Perhaps it could concentrate on cleaning up past problems in such a way as to recover usable resources in a manner that would either defray costs or even show a profit.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline thackney

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Re: No Peak Oil For America Or The World
« Reply #32 on: March 08, 2017, 01:49:27 am »
Where are the reserves on a company's books that say it is proven?

A proven lab test is one thing, but a reserves engineer wants real meat.

It isn't proved reserves yet because it is not economic yet.  As I said it is proved technical recoverable.  It is tech still in its infancy.  But pretending this is only theory instead of drilled wells that produced gas is silly.  The first couple attempts at directional drilling wasn't likely economic as a stand alone activity.
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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: No Peak Oil For America Or The World
« Reply #33 on: March 08, 2017, 02:14:38 am »
It isn't proved reserves yet because it is not economic yet.  As I said it is proved technical recoverable.  It is tech still in its infancy.  But pretending this is only theory instead of drilled wells that produced gas is silly.  The first couple attempts at directional drilling wasn't likely economic as a stand alone activity.
Sorry, but there is not a category established as yet for 'proved technical recoverable'.

You will need to convince the SEC of that argument.

Until then, it is known as something else, possibly as a resource, but most definitely not 'proved'.

This is a nomenclature problem we in industry fight all the time.  I have spent many hours in conferences with auditors on this subject.

No punishment, in my opinion, is too great, for the man who can build his greatness upon his country's ruin~  George Washington

Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: No Peak Oil For America Or The World
« Reply #34 on: March 08, 2017, 02:21:13 am »
Spoken like a production hand!  :laugh:

Stepping away from the 'how it all works' theory of planetary temperature regulation, I think we have more accessible, more economical sources of natural gas onshore or in conventional reservoirs offshore--and will have for some time.

The trick that I see is to not become too reliant on any one form of energy, and to explore for and at least test the economics of reserves beyond the known sources of conventional fuels we are currently utilizing. If nothing else we'll know what we need to know to produce them what tools and methods will need to be developed/improved, and what price point/utilization level that will become economical to do.

It'd be neater than grits to have some form of slicked up 'magic' energy source that would run vehicles and heat homes and power industry but we don't. Until then, some means will be more practical than others for specific applications, and we'll need some sort of balance.

While no one wants soot filled skies laced with toxins, at some point the environmental jihad needs to fold its tents and take a sabbatical. Perhaps it could concentrate on cleaning up past problems in such a way as to recover usable resources in a manner that would either defray costs or even show a profit.
You are correct on all points, and that was my (apparently poor) way of expressing it.

We have so much oil and gas in conventional and easy-to-extract unconventional oil and even more so gas, that it is many, many years before we must address seriously the issue of methane hydrates.

They are there but in difficult environments, and there is absolutely no need to direct much in the way of resources in either the private or public sector to analyze ways to produce.

Sufficient I believe now is a modest effort to identify and quantify some of the more lucrative deposits for exploitation for our grandkids use.
No punishment, in my opinion, is too great, for the man who can build his greatness upon his country's ruin~  George Washington

Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: No Peak Oil For America Or The World
« Reply #35 on: March 08, 2017, 02:32:58 am »
Spoken like a production hand!  :laugh:

Oh, BTW, it has been almost 40 years since I have been called a production hand.  I have been in reservoir and or economist for a long long time.

Guess that is a compliment compared to some of the things I have been called (like conservative, always-trying-to-kill-projects, etc.)
No punishment, in my opinion, is too great, for the man who can build his greatness upon his country's ruin~  George Washington

Online Smokin Joe

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Re: No Peak Oil For America Or The World
« Reply #36 on: March 08, 2017, 02:34:21 am »
It isn't proved reserves yet because it is not economic yet.  As I said it is proved technical recoverable.  It is tech still in its infancy.  But pretending this is only theory instead of drilled wells that produced gas is silly.  The first couple attempts at directional drilling wasn't likely economic as a stand alone activity.
I'm not sure of the origin of that, whether someone was drilling a relief well or whether they were 'reaching over' (for whatever reason).  Most of the development was offshore, IIRC, where the costs are relatively small compared to the rest of the operation, and being able to drill (directionally) multiple wellbores from one platform is a real force multiplier.
The early Bakken horizontal wells targeted the shales instead of the Middle Bakken (mid-80's) and didn't work out so well, either.
Just a decade and a half later, the Bakken boom started, but we had already been using horizontal drilling everywhere from the Bowman Red River 'B' play, to the Nisku/Birdbear A (Belle Lake Pasture), to the Ratcliffe interval (Nesson Anticline) already (carbonate reservoirs), and that is just in the Williston Basin in North Dakota.

I worked a couple Cozette/Corcoran wells in Colorado, in that time, too, so the drilling mechanics were fairly well understood (but still were refined considerably) and production techniques are different for every formation and developed by experimentation at some level, too.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: No Peak Oil For America Or The World
« Reply #37 on: March 08, 2017, 03:04:25 am »
I'm not sure of the origin of that, whether someone was drilling a relief well or whether they were 'reaching over' (for whatever reason).  Most of the development was offshore, IIRC, where the costs are relatively small compared to the rest of the operation, and being able to drill (directionally) multiple wellbores from one platform is a real force multiplier.
The early Bakken horizontal wells targeted the shales instead of the Middle Bakken (mid-80's) and didn't work out so well, either.
Just a decade and a half later, the Bakken boom started, but we had already been using horizontal drilling everywhere from the Bowman Red River 'B' play, to the Nisku/Birdbear A (Belle Lake Pasture), to the Ratcliffe interval (Nesson Anticline) already (carbonate reservoirs), and that is just in the Williston Basin in North Dakota.

I worked a couple Cozette/Corcoran wells in Colorado, in that time, too, so the drilling mechanics were fairly well understood (but still were refined considerably) and production techniques are different for every formation and developed by experimentation at some level, too.
All those references to 80s horizontal wells have made me come clean and expose myself.

I was in my office in 1982 in London when some Elf engineers from their lab outside Paris approached me to ask whether my company had any interest in a new technology they had investigated in their lab in drilling wells horizontally.   I told them point blank ( and maybe even laughed) and told them no, I could not visualize the need to do so.

Anyway, history reveals my view did not prevail nor did those of my industry colleagues as the spawn of wells drilled that way multiplied.

Although most I have been in contact with have marked me as forward-leaning, in that case I most certainly was not.
No punishment, in my opinion, is too great, for the man who can build his greatness upon his country's ruin~  George Washington

Online Smokin Joe

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Re: No Peak Oil For America Or The World
« Reply #38 on: March 08, 2017, 06:02:29 am »
All those references to 80s horizontal wells have made me come clean and expose myself.

I was in my office in 1982 in London when some Elf engineers from their lab outside Paris approached me to ask whether my company had any interest in a new technology they had investigated in their lab in drilling wells horizontally.   I told them point blank ( and maybe even laughed) and told them no, I could not visualize the need to do so.

Anyway, history reveals my view did not prevail nor did those of my industry colleagues as the spawn of wells drilled that way multiplied.

Although most I have been in contact with have marked me as forward-leaning, in that case I most certainly was not.
I had worked three directional wells when I got my first opportunity to work a horizontal well in 1990. I jumped at the chance. Ten years before that, you'd have been cut off by the bartender if you'd even suggested the idea. The vast majority of jobs I have worked since have been horizontal wells. The downside is that I enjoy exploration wells, and absolutely love finding new pay horizons. Horizontal wells, while challenging in their own way, don't do much to scratch that itch. You are committed from spud to drilling in a specific rock formation, and even the little you may see on the way down is usually ignored by the folks who have tunnel vision set for that one pay zone. Oddly enough, what got me into the Bakken boom (very early) was informing the company I was working for that they had what people were looking for in the Bakken, while we were drilling for a Red River target (vertical well). The Red River didn't pan out but another zone I had them test in the Stonewall did (500 BOPD flowing, IP) we came back and twinned that well and drilled their first Bakken Horizontal  (in 2000). One rig the first year, two rigs the second, four the third...and by that time Elm Coulee Field (MT) was on the map. Heady times.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline thackney

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Re: No Peak Oil For America Or The World
« Reply #39 on: March 08, 2017, 12:27:21 pm »
Sorry, but there is not a category established as yet for 'proved technical recoverable'.

You will need to convince the SEC of that argument.

Until then, it is known as something else, possibly as a resource, but most definitely not 'proved'.

This is a nomenclature problem we in industry fight all the time.  I have spent many hours in conferences with auditors on this subject.

Will you please show me where I called this proved reserves?

I said the tech is there but still being improved to become economic.
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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: No Peak Oil For America Or The World
« Reply #40 on: March 08, 2017, 03:25:36 pm »
Will you please show me where I called this proved reserves?

I said the tech is there but still being improved to become economic.
Quote
It isn't proved reserves yet because it is not economic yet.  As I said it is proved technical recoverable.

It may be you were just saying the technology is a proven technology rather than proved reserves.

Sorry, but the word proved has a lot of meaning to a reserve auditor.
No punishment, in my opinion, is too great, for the man who can build his greatness upon his country's ruin~  George Washington