Author Topic: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It’s Automation.  (Read 4261 times)

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Online Weird Tolkienish Figure

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Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It’s Automation.
« Reply #25 on: December 22, 2016, 03:11:48 pm »
I think we can see some trends that will continue into the future:

1) unskilled labor is less and less popular to do (hence the importation of unskilled laborers, and at least partially because of welfare no one really needs to work),
2) there are fewer and fewer jobs that one can go into right out of high school and make a living at.  Auto factories, coal mines, steel mill, etc.  You've now got to have some additional training and possibly certification, licensure.  And, that also means you have to commit to take a certain path. Goes against the whole "follow your dreams" culture.
3) we see a large, very large percentage of the population now jobless and many of whom will continue to be jobless.


 :shrug:  WHere's the evidence of this?


Unemployment rate is under 5%. Labor participation rate is a thing but remember that baby boomers are retiring, and that is showing up in those stats.

Offline Bigun

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Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It’s Automation.
« Reply #26 on: December 22, 2016, 03:15:57 pm »
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/21/upshot/the-long-term-jobs-killer-is-not-china-its-automation.html?_r=0

Just as the automobile decimated buggy whip manufacturing and the power loom screwed spinners and weavers!

NO, my friends, it is NOT automation that is the problem! That would be our idiotic tax code and tremendous over regulation!
"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

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Offline Sanguine

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Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It’s Automation.
« Reply #27 on: December 22, 2016, 03:19:34 pm »
:shrug:  WHere's the evidence of this?


Unemployment rate is under 5%. Labor participation rate is a thing but remember that baby boomers are retiring, and that is showing up in those stats.

The "unemplyoment rate" is meaningless and more a propaganda tool than a measure of anything  significant.  The U-6 was 9.3 last month, and that doesn't even count all of the potential worker whom the government pays to not work. 

And, the employment rate is horrible:



https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000

And, finally, if you look you can find a number of stories about baby boomers NOT retiring in this economy, because they face an uncertain economic future and they are valued in the workplace.

Offline Bigun

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Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It’s Automation.
« Reply #28 on: December 22, 2016, 03:20:05 pm »
What's funny is all this talk of automation and not only is the unemployment rate lower than 5% but productivity growth has been shrinking for quite some time now. We've actually hit a wall with automation IMO. That which can be easily automated with computers already has been. Very challenging now to continue this trend.

Talk of a 5% unemployment rate is just further proof that "Liars sure can figure!"
« Last Edit: December 22, 2016, 03:21:19 pm by Bigun »
"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
- J. R. R. Tolkien

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Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It’s Automation.
« Reply #29 on: December 22, 2016, 03:20:26 pm »
I think we can see some trends that will continue into the future:

1) unskilled labor is less and less popular to do (hence the importation of unskilled laborers, and at least partially because of welfare no one really needs to work),
2) there are fewer and fewer jobs that one can go into right out of high school and make a living at.  Auto factories, coal mines, steel mill, etc.  You've now got to have some additional training and possibly certification, licensure.  And, that also means you have to commit to take a certain path. Goes against the whole "follow your dreams" culture.
3) we see a large, very large percentage of the population now jobless and many of whom will continue to be jobless.



First, Unless one compares employment figures against historical data, present observations are meaningless in terms of the net effect of automation.  Second, lifespans have increased dramatically but retirement is still in the mid 60s in the US (and lower in some European countries), so unless one filters out those who aren't working because they're retired - a number of people that is much larger than at any time in history - the number of unemployed is a false measure of those who cannot find work.  Third, welfare benefits are significant enough that at any given moment there is a significant number of people who could be working, but aren't because they don't have to.  Without controlling for those two factors the unemployment figures are meaningless. 

Finally, it is much, much more likely that government regulation has put more people out of work than any amount of automation. 

Automation is a short term disruptor, but a long term benefit.  Anyone who thinks otherwise should contemplate going back to the labor intensive, unautomated days of subsistence farming.  Automation in farming has been a massive boon to the economy and we don't have millions of permanently unemployed youth who, but for that automation, would be gainfully employed reaping wheat or cotton by hand. 

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Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It’s Automation.
« Reply #30 on: December 22, 2016, 03:20:50 pm »
Talk of a 5% unemployment rate is just proof further proof that "Liars sure can figure!"


 :shrug:  What figures do you have then?

Online Weird Tolkienish Figure

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Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It’s Automation.
« Reply #31 on: December 22, 2016, 03:23:11 pm »
The "unemplyoment rate" is meaningless and more a propaganda tool than a measure of anything  significant.  The U-6 was 9.3 last month, and that doesn't even count all of the potential worker whom the government pays to not work. 


Golly shucks! It's all a great big conspiracy isn't it?

Quote
And, finally, if you look you can find a number of stories about baby boomers NOT retiring in this economy, because they face an uncertain economic future and they are valued in the workplace.


I know plenty of BB's who have retired and are now counted as NOT WORKING by the LP rate. You can find a lot of stories about anything.


Offline Bigun

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Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It’s Automation.
« Reply #32 on: December 22, 2016, 03:25:08 pm »

 :shrug:  What figures do you have then?

I mean that if the current government unemployment rate were calculated like it was pre-Obama it would be somewhere in the region of 10% and if we went back to the traditional (50's - 70's) method of making that calculation it would be higher yet!
"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
- J. R. R. Tolkien

Online Hoodat

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Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It’s Automation.
« Reply #33 on: December 22, 2016, 03:26:47 pm »
As an engineer who works in the automation field, I can attest to the large number of plants who remain in business employing thousands of workers because of automation.  Without it, they would be out of business.
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Online Weird Tolkienish Figure

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Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It’s Automation.
« Reply #34 on: December 22, 2016, 03:27:20 pm »
I mean that if the current government unemployment rate were calculated like it was pre-Obama it would be somewhere in the region of 10% and if we went back to the traditional (50's - 70's) method of making that calculation it would be higher yet!


Post proof. I believe the way UE rate is calculated is set by the ILO, international labor organization.


But feel free to dispute.

Offline Bigun

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Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It’s Automation.
« Reply #35 on: December 22, 2016, 03:55:09 pm »

Post proof. I believe the way UE rate is calculated is set by the ILO, international labor organization.


But feel free to dispute.

What difference does it make who determines the method if the method is continually changing?  If you want a clear picture of things you must compare them in exactly the same way.
"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
- J. R. R. Tolkien

Online Weird Tolkienish Figure

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Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It’s Automation.
« Reply #36 on: December 22, 2016, 03:57:56 pm »
What difference does it make who determines the method if the method is continually changing?  If you want a clear picture of things you must compare them in exactly the same way.


Do you have a link or something?


Anyway, I won't convince you. Believe what you want.

Offline Cripplecreek

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Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It’s Automation.
« Reply #37 on: December 22, 2016, 04:08:38 pm »
As an engineer who works in the automation field, I can attest to the large number of plants who remain in business employing thousands of workers because of automation.  Without it, they would be out of business.

It often changes the work but doesn't really put people out of work unless they're unwilling to change.

I will say that educational requirements for working with most automation is overrated. I'm a high school drop out who ended up as a paint room foreman who had to deal with all the operations and maintenance on a pair of robotic painters (Not to mention all other paint room operations etc. It was all on the job training. I started at the bottom and took an interest. After a while the boss started having me help do little adjustments or part replacements. From there the boss started having me do those little things for him and then he started asking me to come in on a Saturday to help with big jobs like overhauls or major program changes.

The boss was in a car accident that put him out of work for six weeks and when he returned I had been moved up to his position as 2nd shift foreman  and they gave him the job of foreman over all 3 shifts.

Online Weird Tolkienish Figure

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Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It’s Automation.
« Reply #38 on: December 22, 2016, 04:11:40 pm »
NO, my friends, it is NOT automation that is the problem! That would be our idiotic tax code and tremendous over regulation!


 :thumbsup:


This I do agree with.

Offline Sanguine

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Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It’s Automation.
« Reply #39 on: December 22, 2016, 04:14:00 pm »
@Cripplecreek, I'm not saying post secondary SHOULD be necessary - I'm just saying it more and more so is.

@Weird Tolkienish Figure, WTF?  I gave you numbers and a link, and you're still asking for them? 

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Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It’s Automation.
« Reply #40 on: December 22, 2016, 04:17:19 pm »

Do you have a link or something?


Anyway, I won't convince you. Believe what you want.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2012/02/09/dont-be-fooled-the-obama-unemployment-rate-is-11/#122b46543d23

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unemployment

If you manipulate the data you can come up with almost any result you want!

The way it was traditionally calculated was people of working age divided by the number of people who were unemployed.  The devil is in the details in that the definition of employed is forever changing as is the number of people who are actually in the workforce.
"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
- J. R. R. Tolkien

Online Weird Tolkienish Figure

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Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It’s Automation.
« Reply #41 on: December 22, 2016, 04:18:24 pm »
@Cripplecreek, I'm not saying post secondary SHOULD be necessary - I'm just saying it more and more so is.

@Weird Tolkienish Figure, WTF?  I gave you numbers and a link, and you're still asking for them?


I didn't ask you for them, I wanted proof that Obama changed out UE rate was calculated.

Offline Bigun

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Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It’s Automation.
« Reply #42 on: December 22, 2016, 04:19:30 pm »

 :thumbsup:


This I do agree with.

I would actually add a third cause to that which is the SAD state of our education system currently!

https://fee.org/articles/the-failure-of-public-schooling-in-one-chart/
« Last Edit: December 22, 2016, 04:56:50 pm by Bigun »
"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
- J. R. R. Tolkien

Offline Cripplecreek

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Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It’s Automation.
« Reply #43 on: December 22, 2016, 04:24:50 pm »
@Cripplecreek, I'm not saying post secondary SHOULD be necessary - I'm just saying it more and more so is.

@Sanguine

Understood. A lot of places look for an education beyond high school as an indication of ambition or that the job prospect is a finisher. I know of a factory near me that requires 5 college credits before they'll even consider a hire and they don't care what the credits were for.

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Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It’s Automation.
« Reply #44 on: December 22, 2016, 04:26:18 pm »

Post proof. I believe the way UE rate is calculated is set by the ILO, international labor organization.


But feel free to dispute.

ILO has a definition of UE.  In the US, UE is calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statististics.  Here's a link to a change made in 94.  I know there was (at least) another significant one made pre-93 (I remember it from econ classes), but I can't find a link as they all talk about more recent changes.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2012/10/16/why-jack-welch-has-a-point-about-unemployment-numbers/#7a6f6d893438

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/unemploymentrate.asp
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Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It’s Automation.
« Reply #45 on: December 22, 2016, 04:34:51 pm »
ILO has a definition of UE.  In the US, UE is calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statististics.  Here's a link to a change made in 94.  I know there was (at least) another significant one made pre-93 (I remember it from econ classes), but I can't find a link as they all talk about more recent changes.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2012/10/16/why-jack-welch-has-a-point-about-unemployment-numbers/#7a6f6d893438

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/unemploymentrate.asp


The ILO "Normalizes" the data so international comparisons can be made. Otherwise you'd have each country using their own metric and international comparisons would be worthless.

Offline Emjay

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Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It’s Automation.
« Reply #46 on: December 23, 2016, 04:05:17 am »
I do not think automation is a major contributor to unemployment.

But what if it is?

You can't stop progress.
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Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It’s Automation.
« Reply #47 on: December 23, 2016, 08:25:29 pm »
I do not think automation is a major contributor to unemployment.

But what if it is?

You can't stop progress.
That's the problem we face. How are people supposed to support themselves (and, perhaps even more importantly for the long-term future of humanity, their families) when labor, the ages-old way of doing so, is no longer a viable way to do it?

Normally this would mean a return to subsistence living, but access to land would be a huge obstacle to that.
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Offline Sanguine

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Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It’s Automation.
« Reply #48 on: December 23, 2016, 08:43:55 pm »
That's the problem we face. How are people supposed to support themselves (and, perhaps even more importantly for the long-term future of humanity, their families) when labor, the ages-old way of doing so, is no longer a viable way to do it?


Yes, that is the question, and I think we are seeing the leading edge of the trend, in inner cities, and rural impoverished ares, and in Europe.  The non-necessity of work is not necessarily a good thing for people.

Online Weird Tolkienish Figure

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Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It’s Automation.
« Reply #49 on: December 23, 2016, 09:18:26 pm »
That's the problem we face. How are people supposed to support themselves (and, perhaps even more importantly for the long-term future of humanity, their families) when labor, the ages-old way of doing so, is no longer a viable way to do it?

Normally this would mean a return to subsistence living, but access to land would be a huge obstacle to that.


Then we will have finally entered into a post-scarcity economy and the cost of (nearly) everything will be next to nothing.


Food, energy, labor, the costs of all of these will be brought down by automation and competition.
« Last Edit: December 23, 2016, 09:18:50 pm by Weird Tolkienish Figure »