Russian ambassador to Turkey assassinated.

[TomSea]

After shooting the ambassador, he repeated the infamous phrase of former al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden "you will not have security, even in your dreams until we live it in reality in our countries."

He was then killed by the police.

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2016/12/19/Watch-Moment-Russian-ambassador-shot-dead.html

[verga]

Nope....what will Putin do is the question...

You can bet he won't be setting up a Tee time at the nearest golf course,

[r9etb]

Not good, that's for sure.  And Turkey is a member of NATO.  Will NATO stand behind Turkey if Russia attacks, even in a limited manner?

Doubtful. 

[verga]

Not good, that's for sure.  And Turkey is a member of NATO.  Will NATO stand behind Turkey if Russia attacks, even in a limited manner?

Another question is what will the UN do?

[Maj. Bill Martin]

Not good, that's for sure.  And Turkey is a member of NATO.  Will NATO stand behind Turkey if Russia attacks, even in a limited manner?

I'm hopping that the NATO alliance will act as a brake on Russia responding to this directly.  I think @TomSea may be right -- the Russian response will be to use this incident as leverage to take a more free hand in Syria, and basically dare Turkey to up the ante by confronting them.

[TomSea]

Some of these conflicts are just like our position over there, if you are present over there, something like this may happen.

This seems very vivid because of the way it has been meticulously recorded, the Russian ambassador was giving a speech.

For all we know, what this guy did might make him a hero to millions of the ME Muslim population, obviously the Russians can be very angered over this and saber rattling could occur.

[Hoodat]

My church just shot a video yesterday to help secure the release of a Christian pastor being held there on trumped up charges of terrorism.  This definitely ups the ante.

[Oceander]

I'm hopping that the NATO alliance will act as a brake on Russia responding to this directly.  I think @TomSea may be right -- the Russian response will be to use this incident as leverage to take a more free hand in Syria, and basically dare Turkey to up the ante by confronting them.

Good points.  Thanks. 

[TomSea]

What happened
The Russian Su-24, an all-weather attack aircraft, was shot down by Turkish F-16s in the Turkey-Syria border area on 24 November 2015.


The plane crashed in the mountainous Jabal Turkmen area of the Syrian province of Latakia, killing the pilot.
A Russian marine involved in a helicopter rescue attempt was killed when the helicopter came under fire.
The navigator in the jet, Capt Konstantin Murakhtin, survived the crash and was taken to Russia's Hmeimim airbase in Latakia by Syrian government forces.


Turkey said planes were warned 10 times during five minutes via an "emergency" channel and asked to change direction.
The Russian defence ministry insisted that the aircraft remained within Syria's borders throughout its mission and did not violate Turkish airspace and received no warnings.


Strained relations

The incident strained relations between Moscow and Ankara, with Mr Putin saying he had been "stabbed in the back".
The Russian leader also accused Mr Erdogan of collaborating with so-called Islamic State.
Russia hit Turkey with a raft of sanctions, banning import of Turkish foodstuffs and stopping Russian package holidays to Turkey.
Mr Erdogan offered to meet Mr Putin in person but Moscow refused and the pair have not spoken to each other since.
---------------------------------------------------


Russia and Turkey were already at a state of alert. Both were already militarizing in preparation for a conflict.

This above is an old story, Putin and Erdogan met in August at a minimum, I don't know how many meetings they have had or if that is the only time.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/09/world/russia-putin-turkey-erdogan-meeting/index.html
All of those economic sanctions and so forth, ended months ago.

[musiclady]

Am I alone, thinking of Obama calling both sides and lecturing them to stay calm, etc.?

And both hang up, dismissing Obama as a nobody in terms of their problems of today.

And of course not fearing his hollow threats, or intending to consider his advice.

Nah............. he won't do anything. 

His protectors probably won't even tell him, and we know he doesn't even know as much about international news as we do.

[musiclady]

This won't be good for anyone.

Understatement of the day.

[geronl]

Wow.  Just Wow!

Putin will not step back and let this slide like Obama did.  Blood, a lot of blood, will flow over this one as it should.

Putin might have arranged this as a pretext

[geronl]

My church just shot a video yesterday to help secure the release of a Christian pastor being held there on trumped up charges of terrorism.  This definitely ups the ante.

I am not sure how they'd be related

[mountaineer]

My church just shot a video yesterday to help secure the release of a Christian pastor being held there on trumped up charges of terrorism.

Here's the TBR thread on that situation.

[TomSea]

Putin: Assassination of Russian envoy to Ankara attempt to ruin Turkish-Russian relations
http://www.turkishminute.com/2016/12/19/putin-assassination-russian-envoy-turkey-attempt-derail-syrian-peace-process/

Erdoğan briefs Putin on assassination of Russian ambassador to Turkey
http://www.turkishminute.com/2016/12/19/erdogan-briefs-putin-assassination-russian-ambassador-turkey/

Russian envoy shooting: What impact on Russia-Turkey ties? ·
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-envoy-shooting-impact-russia-turkey-ties-200701914.html

Five Things to Worry About After the Assassination of Russia’s Ambassador to Turkey
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/12/19/five-things-to-worry-about-after-the-assassination-of-russias-ambassador-to-turkey/?utm_content=buffer20b72&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

I don't think war is going to happen, discussed in the last link but all of this is quite a jolt.

[edpc]

While it's worth noting the shoot down of the Russian plane, recent comments of Erdogan cannot be overlooked.  At the end of November, he was quoted as saying in regards to Turkish forces in Syria, "We are there to bring justice. We are there to end the rule of the cruel Assad, who has been spreading state terror," Erdogan said.

Russia quickly asked for an explanation.  I don't recall any reports as to what occurred afterwards.

[TomSea]

While it's worth noting the shoot down of the Russian plane, recent comments of Erdogan cannot be overlooked.  At the end of November, he was quoted as saying in regards to Turkish forces in Syria, "We are there to bring justice. We are there to end the rule of the cruel Assad, who has been spreading state terror," Erdogan said.

Russia quickly asked for an explanation.  I don't recall any reports as to what occurred afterwards.

Turkey walked back the remarks as they say.

[TomSea]

Any number of groups could have wanted Russian ambassador dead
Ted Kemp   | @TedKempCNBC

Bremmer pointed out that Erdogan made a bad situation worse by imprisoning many of his own leading generals after a failed coup attempt rocked the country in July. Erdogan may have removed threats to his own power by arresting military leaders and thousands of other people, but he also made his army less effective.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/19/who-shot-russias-ambassador-to-turkey-it-could-be-a-lot-of-people.html

[TomSea]

We had a general killed in Afghanistan and we've put up with a lot of these sorts of incidences, this one today just seems very high-profile.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

I don't think war is going to happen, discussed in the last link but all of this is quite a jolt.

The real issue is Turkey is a NATO member and any war or spite with Russia could drag the USA in.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Nope....what will Putin do is the question...

If this was the US ambassador dead I know what our President would do - go play a round of golf or attend a fundraiser.

[skeeter]

If this was the US ambassador dead I know what our President would do - go play a round of golf or attend a fundraiser.

Or send a 'shout out' to Dr Joe Medicine Crow.

[TomSea]

It sure feels like an outrage was crossed today and other events, I don't know if we are on the precipice of anything but this problem of terrorism once again rears its head. These things seem to happen a bit when one gets in these internecine conflicts one might say. We are at a very fascinating point in time right now and I would not be alarmed but we need to watch it.

Europe | The Great War
In Sarajevo, Divisions That Drove an Assassin Have Only Begun to Heal
By JOHN F. BURNS JUNE 26, 2014


...

“To me, what is happening across Bosnia today, and what is happening in many other parts of the world, is very much like the beginning of the 20th century,” said Vera Katz, a scholar at the University of Sarajevo’s History Institute. “Seeing how some of our communities have made Princip into a mythical figure has made me think that we have hardly moved on at all.”

The archducal couple were on their way to a civic reception in the yellow-and orange-banded city hall, an endowment of the Hapsburg era that borrowed from Moorish Spain, when the violence began, with a conspirator tossing a homemade bomb from a bridge over the Miljacka River. It bounced off the folded canopy of the archduke’s car before exploding.

What ensued stands as a monument to imperial folly and to the role of chance and mischance in history. Shortly before 11 a.m., the couple left the reception, deeply shaken by the bombing but determined to see the day’s formalities through. With the archduke in a military tunic and helmet, and the duchess in a dress of white filigreed lace with a matching hat and parasol, they headed back along the lightly guarded Miljacka embankment — and, 500 yards on, to their fateful encounter with Princip.

Continued: https://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/27/world/europe/in-sarajevo-gavrilo-princip-set-off-world-war-i.html?_r=0

[HonestJohn]

Am I alone, thinking of Obama calling both sides and lecturing them to stay calm, etc.?

And both hang up, dismissing Obama as a nobody in terms of their problems of today.

And of course not fearing his hollow threats, or intending to consider his advice.

Obama's gone in about a month.

What's Trump going to do?

He's already panned NATO as obsolete and our own allies as worthless unless they cough up more dough for defense.

Is he going to back those worthless allies and the obsolete NATO?  Do you even want him to?

After all, Putin's 'our buddy' now.

[Hoodat]

Here's the TBR thread on that situation.

Yep.  That's him.  He and his wife have visited our church several times.  Currently, a member of our church is on the ground in Turkey trying to hold his together.

Thanks for the link.