One reason the climate models are all off is that none of them actually account for the degree to which soot from coal burning, esp. in China, but also in India and Russia, has change the Arctic albedo.
A very recent paper documents this:
Tedesco, M., Doherty, S., Fettweis, X., Alexander, P., Jeyaratnam, J., and Stroeve, J.: The darkening of the Greenland ice sheet: trends, drivers, and projections (1981–2100), The Cryosphere, 10, 477-496, doi:10.5194/tc-10-477-2016, 2016.
The darkening of the Arctic ice sheet (by "light absorbing impurities" as the abstract of that paper calls soot), unlike the CO2-induced warming hypothesis, explains the asymmetry between the Arctic, which is undoubtedly warming, and Antarctic, where temperatures have been, for the most part, dropping of late.
The problem is, politically, this doesn't give the EU, the UN or the Feds in the US an excuse to seize control of energy production and use, since the solution to the problem of Anthropogenic Arctic Warming is for the Chinese, Russians and Indians to pass and enforce analogues of the American Clean Air Act.