Democrats Can't Write Off the Last Senate Race

[libertybele]

Democrats Can't Write Off the Last Senate Race

The 2016 elections aren't quite over yet. No, I'm not talking about the millions of ballots still being counted that will eventually lock in Donald Trump's exact Electoral College win while continuing to increase Hillary Clinton's raw vote lead above the 1.2 million where it currently stands, although those are important too. No, I'm talking about the U.S. Senate runoff election in Louisiana, scheduled for Dec. 10.

Louisiana's unusual electoral system features an "all comers" election on Nov. 8, followed by a runoff between the top two finishers, regardless of party. This year, there was no strong favorite for the open senate seat, and Republican State Treasurer John Kennedy and Democratic Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell wound up in the runoff, despite taking only 25 percent and 17 percent of the vote, respectively.

Kennedy is certainly a heavy favorite to win. Louisiana has become a very Republican state, with Trump winning by a whopping 20 percentage points. Nine Republican candidates combined for 61 percent of the vote in the Nov. 8 senate blanket primary, while seven Democrats received only 34 percent of the vote. Local experts give Kennedy a large advantage.

On the other hand ... Democrat John Bel Edwards easily won Louisiana's gubernatorial election just last year. Runoff elections are typically very-low-turnout affairs, where strong passions on one side can produce unusual outcomes -- and it's certainly possible that a reaction for or against Trump's election could produce an unexpected one-sided turnout surge.

National Democrats are apparently playing down the election, which has received practically no attention at all in the national media. I think that's an odd choice. ...

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-11-16/democrats-can-t-write-off-the-last-senate-race-in-louisiana

[Maj. Bill Martin]

Democrats Can't Write Off the Last Senate Race

The 2016 elections aren't quite over yet. No, I'm not talking about the millions of ballots still being counted that will eventually lock in Donald Trump's exact Electoral College win while continuing to increase Hillary Clinton's raw vote lead above the 1.2 million where it currently stands, although those are important too. No, I'm talking about the U.S. Senate runoff election in Louisiana, scheduled for Dec. 10.

Louisiana's unusual electoral system features an "all comers" election on Nov. 8, followed by a runoff between the top two finishers, regardless of party. This year, there was no strong favorite for the open senate seat, and Republican State Treasurer John Kennedy and Democratic Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell wound up in the runoff, despite taking only 25 percent and 17 percent of the vote, respectively.

Kennedy is certainly a heavy favorite to win. Louisiana has become a very Republican state, with Trump winning by a whopping 20 percentage points. Nine Republican candidates combined for 61 percent of the vote in the Nov. 8 senate blanket primary, while seven Democrats received only 34 percent of the vote. Local experts give Kennedy a large advantage.

On the other hand ... Democrat John Bel Edwards easily won Louisiana's gubernatorial election just last year. Runoff elections are typically very-low-turnout affairs, where strong passions on one side can produce unusual outcomes -- and it's certainly possible that a reaction for or against Trump's election could produce an unexpected one-sided turnout surge.

National Democrats are apparently playing down the election, which has received practically no attention at all in the national media. I think that's an odd choice. ...

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-11-16/democrats-can-t-write-off-the-last-senate-race-in-louisiana

My guess is that they're playing it down because they expect to lose, and they don't want to add to the GOP momentum by playing up the race as being important.

Just a guess, though....