Florida Democrats hold 90,000 early vote lead, but will it carry Clinton to White House?

[Free Vulcan]

MIAMI — Election Day dawned in the nation’s biggest battleground state with Florida Democrats out-voting Republicans by about 90,000 early ballots cast before the polls opened Tuesday — a potentially big, but not insurmountable lead, that could help Hillary Clinton win the White House.

On a percentage basis, the Democratic advantage over Republicans was small as of Tuesday morning — 1.4 percentage points of the 6.5 million in-person early and mail-in absentee ballots.

Though the votes won’t be tallied until Tuesday night, party registration strongly correlates with support for the top-of-the-ticket candidates. So the early vote totals help gauge the relative campaign strengths of Clinton and Donald Trump heading into Election Day.

Still, about 22 percent of the early and absentee votes were made by independents, whose preference is almost impossible to divine from the shifting public-opinion polls.

Public-opinion surveys show a tight race, with a Quinnipiac University poll released Monday that had Clinton ahead of Trump by 46-45 percent, a statistical tie...

Read more at: http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/11/florida-democrats-hold-90-000-early-vote-lead-will-it-carry-clinton-to-the-white-house-107192

[GAJohnnie]

In 2012 it was 148,000 and Obama barely won the state

[Oceander]

Party registration may correlate, but it doesn't dictate, and in this year more than any other, party affiliation is like to be much less reliable as a guide to how the votes were cast.  I'm a registered republican and I did not vote for Trump, so my party affiliation would not by itself be a guide to how I actually voted. 

[dfwgator]

Party registration may correlate, but it doesn't dictate, and in this year more than any other, party affiliation is like to be much less reliable as a guide to how the votes were cast.  I'm a registered republican and I did not vote for Trump, so my party affiliation would not by itself be a guide to how I actually voted.

I suspect this election will be a record in cross-over votes, on both sides.

[Restored]

There is a huge crossover in this election. Lots of Republicans refusing to vote for the Game Show Host. Lots of Democrats voting for him.

It won't be enough for him

[Oceander]

I suspect this election will be a record in cross-over votes, on both sides.

It's quite possible.  In many respects this will go down in history as one of the worst elections in modern history.  In political science, however, it is likely to add some. It inconsiderable data on how voters make their choices and will be studied for years. 

[Free Vulcan]

From my experience in elections and campaigns, if the Dems don't beat you 2-to-1 or more in early voting, you're in the game. 90K is fairly marginal in a place like FL.