I don't know about the polls, all I know is that a lot of my acquaintances that were solidly NeverTrumps at one time have come around in the past few weeks. So at the very least Trump seems to be solidifying the base. Now it's up to the independents.
I've seen about 10-20 percent of my Never Trump acquantances shift with all the Hillary criminality lately, I've also seen some on the fence, but at the same time, that doesn't make up for the ones who have said that T crossed uncrossable lines for them in the past few months on various issues.
At this point, I don't want to predict a thing. This is a bizarre election cycle. I still think Trump has a chance due to the pop culture, LIV voting bocks who usually never turn out, but do now because they watched a reality show.