Why Utah Voting for McMullin Does Not Help Hillary Clinton- Infographic

[ABX]

Now here's a question for the forum...


What will happen when faithless electors actually change an election?

21 states do not legally prevent an elector from voting for someone else.  It has happened before, just on a very small scale. Nothing that shifted power in recent history.

[Doug Loss]

I don't see why Scenario #2 necessarily results in Hillary losing.  For that to happen, either Trump or McMullin would have to win in the House, and I'm not sure that's so certain.

Trump himself is very unpopular among some people, and among some members of Congress as well.  If push came to shove, I'm not sure we could count on a party-line vote by the GOP to choose Trump over Hillary.  There might be enough defections that Hillary would actually win.

If that is possible, then for Scenario #2 to be a sure thing, we'd have to count on all those Republicans voting for McMullin.  And I'm not so sure of that either.  Sure, a lot of Republicans would prefer him to Hillary.  But I also think a number of them would be extremely uncomfortable with the idea that some guy who is virtually unknown by 90% of the country, only really ran in one state, and only won in one state dominated by a single religious minority, should be chosen as President.  Some of the RINO's might believe that is sticking a finger in the eye of all the voters in the other 49 states.  In fact, I personally believe that McMullin winning a fight in the House is the least likely alternative should it make it that far.

I'm not saying that is definitely what would happen.  But at the same time, I don't think there's any guarantee that forcing the House to choose between Hillary, Trump, and McMullin is an easy "Hillary loses" scenario.

That's not quite how it works.  If the election is thrown to the house, the vote is by state, with all the representatives for each state voting to determine how their state's vote will be cast.  This means that the number of Republicans and Democrats isn't the determinative factor, but the number of each in each state's representation.

[jmyrlefuller]

That's not quite how it works.  If the election is thrown to the house, the vote is by state, with all the representatives for each state voting to determine how their state's vote will be cast.  This means that the number of Republicans and Democrats isn't the determinative factor, but the number of each in each state's representation.

And that's where 2010 was the ace in the hole. Because of gerrymandering following the 2010 statehouse routs, the GOP was able to squeeze out more Republican districts in each state. That's also bad news for Trump, because in the primaries, his strongest states were blue states in the Northeast that will almost certainly vote Clinton in that scenario.

Combine that with McMullin's inside connections as a policy hack for the House GOP, and the odds of a President McMullin look a lot better. Perhaps that's why the Trump caucus is scared all of a sudden.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

And that's where 2010 was the ace in the hole. Because of gerrymandering following the 2010 statehouse routs, the GOP was able to squeeze out more Republican districts in each state. That's also bad news for Trump, because in the primaries, his strongest states were blue states in the Northeast that will almost certainly vote Clinton in that scenario.

Combine that with McMullin's inside connections as a policy hack for the House GOP, and the odds of a President McMullin look a lot better. Perhaps that's why the Trump caucus is scared all of a sudden.

Trump has long odds and because of that McMullin has long odds.

[starstruck]

I believe it would be the newly seated House, not the current one, that would vote for President.  And in that case, we may not have all 33 states.  It may be a lot closer, and the number of Republicans unwilling to vote for either Trump or McMullin could be enough to swing it.

Again, I'm not saying that is what would happen.  I'm just saying it's not a slam dunk that Hillary would lose in that circumstance.

And I'm saying if the Electoral vote was pretty much a toss up I don't see that big of a state shift in the house.

[Idaho_Cowboy]

Of course he is..McMullin is a #Nevertrump puppet whose sole purpose is stopping him.

Dude, the math is hard, but it ain't that hard.