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The U.S. Elections: The Future of Financial Regulation and the Impact on Financial Institutions

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EC:
@massadvj  @kartographer  @DCPatriot

Comments? You guys know more about this sort of stuff.

massadvj:

--- Quote from: EC on October 22, 2016, 01:44:03 pm ---@massadvj  @kartographer  @DCPatriot

Comments? You guys know more about this sort of stuff.

--- End quote ---

I expect more bank regulation and global financial manipulation no matter what.  Near-zero interest in the USA and below-zero interest elsewhere, combined with massive deficits and subsequent monetization of that debt throughout the world, is not something that lends itself to any government being able to deregulate.  Quite the contrary.  The banks and regulators will continue their choke hold on the global economy, else every pension in the world would be in jeopardy.

There really is no escape at this point except by massive disruption through hyper-inflation or collapse of the system.  The only question is when.  Probably not in a year.  But 20 years?  50?  No one knows.  When it happens, it will happen in one big momentous event, similar to 2008.

I see a scenario where the financial markets collapse, and in order to "save" them the government confiscates all pensions and folds them into Social Security.  That will be done in a single day, and most of the pensioners will have already lost so much of their wealth at that point, they will be "grateful" for the government intrusion, begging congress to act. 

All of this is beyond the control of the POTUS, as it was George W. Bush.  Whoever is president at the time it happens will lose popularity and have to sell it.  But the people who pull the levers (central bankers and treasuries) will ultimately control the world economy, as they have with progressively more intrusion since WWI.

The only difference between us and Venezuela is public confidence in our system, which is irrationally positive right now.

My advice is to make sure you have hoarded one year's income in gold and silver, plus own your home mortgage-free.  If you have that, you cannot really be harmed by anything.

mountaineer:
The other speaker at the seminar was an equity strategist who discussed the stock market and what to expect. She said she's still bullish but cautious. She doesn't expect the next recession before 1-3 years, and it should be mild.

She observed that China's growth rate is slowing down, as evidenced by a reduction in energy consumption there.

She said the Fed is "dying to raise interest rates" and probably will do so in December 2016. Historically, while they raise rates too much, she said, it takes a year for the economy to feel the effects of a rate hike.

What should we worry about? Inflation might get worse (right now, 0 - 2%). Longterm, debit will be up, taxes will go up, productivity will go down.

As for the election, she said if the S&P 500 is up in the three months leading to the election, the incumbent party wins.

rodamala:

--- Quote from: mountaineer on October 24, 2016, 10:32:03 am ---
She said she's still bullish but cautious. She doesn't expect the next recession before 1-3 years, and it should be mild.


--- End quote ---

That statement discounts pretty much everything she is saying.  The insinuation is that there is a "next" recession, but asides from a phoney baloney stock market rise after essentially 2 downturns, there is no rebound from THE LAST RECESSION.

Any GDP "growth" is a simple matter of government spending expansion, which NEVER CONTRACTS.

Face it, we are on the 8th year of the 0bama "Summer Recovery".  Until businesses start making REAL things here, it's all virtual wealth creation.

Invest in lead ingots and tins of Friskies Liver Pate dinner.

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