Rasmussen: White House Watch: Trump Edges Ahead

[mystery-ak]

Thursday, October 20, 2016

It’s too early to measure the impact of last night’s final presidential debate, but Republican Donald Trump now has a three-point lead nationally on Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online White House Watch survey finds Trump with 43% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Clinton’s 40%. Six percent (6%) still prefer Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, and three percent (3%) favor Green Party nominee Jill Stein. Another three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Clinton and Trump were tied yesterday at 42% apiece. Clinton held a seven-point lead at the beginning of last week just after the airing of an 11-year old video showing Trump making graphic sexual remarks, but she began losing ground after the second presidential debate. The lead has been shifting back and forth since late last week.

Rasmussen Reports updates its White House Watch survey daily Monday through Friday at 8:30 am Eastern based on a three-day rolling average of 1,500 Likely U.S. Voters. Last night’s surveying was completed prior to the candidates’ final debate in Las Vegas.

Among the 87% of voters who say they are now sure how they will vote, it’s Trump 48%, Clinton 46%. Four percent (4%) of these voters choose Johnson, two percent (2%) Stein. Among the voters who say they still could change their minds between now and Election Day, it’s Trump 36%, Clinton 30%, Johnson 23% and Stein 11%.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 17-19, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_oct20

[HAPPY2BME]

"It does not take a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brush fires of freedom in the minds of men." -- Samuel Adams (1722-1803)‡

[SirLinksALot]

National Polls are not what I look at... it is the State-by-State BATTLEGROUND POLLS that will decide the next President.

What's happening at the Electoral College level? That is what those interested should be looking at....

[HAPPY2BME]

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online White House Watch survey finds Trump with 43% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Clinton’s 40%. Six percent (6%) still prefer Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, and three percent (3%) favor Green Party nominee Jill Stein. Another three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

============================

Jill Stein Would Choose Donald Trump Over Crooked Hillary Clinton

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rwdPrbrbFLI

[cato potatoe]

If Trump loses by the expected margin, I sure hope this is the last election we hear from Rasmussen Pyrite Polling.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

If Trump loses by the expected margin, I sure hope this is the last election we hear from Rasmussen Pyrite Polling.

IBD also has him ahead. Most other polls have him behind.


 


Polling is all over the place this year.

[andy58-in-nh]

Rasmussen does not discuss or reveal his polling methodologies, which have long been different from those of other public pollsters.
His assumptions are clearly at odds with the majority of his peers; one reasonably suspects he assumes a higher percentage of GOP voters will turn out this year than in the last 2 Presidential elections, and perhaps that we will see lower black and Hispanic turnout in urban centers.

Also, there is an open debate amongst political researchers this year about how many of Trump's core supporters will turn out - it will almost certainly be an increased number of such voters (blue collar, no college, suburban and rural) over the past two election cycles, but no one knows for certain how much of an impact this will have.

We'll find out in a couple of weeks.

[TomSea]

Even if these are all not the most prestigious polls, Trump leads in

People's Pundit Daily: https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/latest-polls/election-2016/us-presidential-election-daily-tracking-poll/

Rasmussen

IBD

USA LA Times

So, that's 4 of them. All probably not counted in the RCP averages.

[SirLinksALot]

Even if these are all not the most prestigious polls, Trump leads in

People's Pundit Daily: https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/latest-polls/election-2016/us-presidential-election-daily-tracking-poll/

Rasmussen

IBD

USA LA Times

So, that's 4 of them. All probably not counted in the RCP averages.

However, conventional "wisdom" ( note the quotes) have already concluded that Trump has lost the elections