Does Donald Trump Have a Path to 270?

[Luis Gonzalez]

Does Donald Trump Have a Path to 270?
As things stand now, Trump’s electoral math is unworkable.
by Tim Alberta   August 30, 2016
For The National Review

Labor Day traditionally sounds a gun that starts the general election in earnest — vacations are over, kids are back in school, and voters are finally tuning in to a presidential race that’s competitive coming out of the party conventions.

This year feels very different.

With two prolonged primary seasons, two deeply polarizing nominees, and two conventions that were moved up by a month (from late August to late July), voters have been unable to escape the shadow cast by a bizarre and historic race for the White House. And with the GOP nominee trailing badly in nearly every national and battleground-state poll, conventional wisdom has jelled earlier than in any cycle since 1996: The election is already over.

The question this Labor Day, then, isn’t who has the pole position heading into the home stretch, but whether Donald Trump has any realistic path to defeating Hillary Clinton on November 8.

The answer, barring unforeseen and politically transcendent developments, is no.

To be sure, there are still major opportunities for Trump to score points at Clinton’s expense, none more significant than the three presidential debates, the first of which is scheduled for September 26 at Hofstra University in New York. But even if he turned in a series of virtuoso performances that changed some voters’ minds, Trump would still be hampered by the one thing he cannot change: the Electoral College.

Democrats entered 2016 with a decided advantage in the race to accumulate the 270 electoral votes (EVs) needed to win the White House. A bloc of 18 states, plus the District of Columbia, has voted Democratic in each of the past six presidential elections. Together, what political scientists call the ” blue wall” comprises 242 EVs, meaning that Clinton needs to win only another 28 from any combination of competitive battleground states in order to secure the presidency.

Making the map (and math) even friendlier to Democrats is the fact that several long-time Republican strongholds — Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado — have drifted leftward over the past decade. All three were carried by Barack Obama in 2008, and only North Carolina was taken back (barely) by Mitt Romney in 2012. Virginia and Colorado together account for 22 electoral votes; Clinton is leading Trump in both states by vast margins. Those two victories would bring her within six electoral votes of the White House.

In other words, Trump has virtually no margin for error. 

In order to reach 270, the Republican nominee must first protect the 206 EVs won by Romney in 2012. This alone will be a tall task, and even if Trump manages to pull it off, he’ll still need another 64 EVs, necessarily including at least one victory in a state that Democrats haven’t lost in decades.

With the aid of polling trends and demographic data, here then is a look at Trump’s potential paths to 270 — and an explanation of why Clinton appears certain to win in November.

Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/439466/donald-trump-electoral-map-paths-270-impossibly-narrow

[Suppressed]

At sites where bad news is banned, they are ignorant of how dire things are for the Orange Guy Who's Sick of Winning?

[Luis Gonzalez]

At sites where bad news is banned, they are ignorant of how dire things are for the Orange Guy Who's Sick of Winning?

He's no longer trying to win because he knows that he won't win.

He's working on delegitimizing the US electoral system to excuse his loss in the eyes of his followers.

 

[Oceander]

He's no longer trying to win because he knows that he won't win.

He's working on delegitimizing the US electoral system to excuse his loss in the eyes of his followers.

 

It's just one disaster after another.  The electoral system - and the peaceful change of power - is one of the signature achievements of this country.

I weep for the world we are leaving to my daughter and her peers.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Guys, the author meant 270 pounds, not electoral college votes.

[LMAO]

At sites where bad news is banned, they are ignorant of how dire things are for the Orange Guy Who's Sick of Winning?

@Suppressed

Any particular sites you're referring to 

[kevindavis007]

No..

[Smokin Joe]

Guys, the author meant 270 pounds, not electoral college votes.

Nah. 270 pounds would require him to keep his mouth closed. Not gonna happen.

Actually, I thought 270 was his compass heading. Orient chart with north at top and that would have him moving due left...

[Jazzhead]

Pence's elucidation regarding Trump's charge that the election is rigged bears examination.  Pence is right - the mainstream media has abandoned all pretense of neutrality in this election,  and is constantly pressing the meme that those who support Trump are irredeemable,  possibly as evil as the candidate himself.   In many places,  one cannot express oneself publically as a Trump supporter without being shamed.    One of my neighbors,  a couple of doors down from me, is the only one in the hood who's put up Trump signs.  And most mornings when I go out at dawn to walk my dog,  the Trump signs have been pulled down and tossed into the bushes.   My neighbor keeps putting the signs back up,  and overnight they keep coming down.

In this morning's WSJ,  I see a photo of a firebombed GOP office in Carolina,  with the story reporting graffiti exhorting "Nazi Republicans leave town or else".   

The mainstream media's campaign of shame is likely driving Trump voters underground.   I think it's quite likely that if the polls show Trump within 5 points or so of Clinton,  Trump could win.   If you're labeled a deplorable and irredeemable,  maybe you lash out that the election is rigged - or maybe you just clam up until you enter the voting booth.       

[Smokin Joe]

Pence's elucidation regarding Trump's charge that the election is rigged bears examination.  Pence is right - the mainstream media has abandoned all pretense of neutrality in this election,  and is constantly pressing the meme that those who support Trump are irredeemable,  possibly as evil as the candidate himself.   In many places,  one cannot express oneself publically as a Trump supporter without being shamed.    One of my neighbors,  a couple of doors down from me, is the only one in the hood who's put up Trump signs.  And most mornings when I go out at dawn to walk my dog,  the Trump signs have been pulled down and tossed into the bushes.   My neighbor keeps putting the signs back up,  and overnight they keep coming down.

In this morning's WSJ,  I see a photo of a firebombed GOP office in Carolina,  with the story reporting graffiti exhorting "Nazi Republicans leave town or else".   

The mainstream media's campaign of shame is likely driving Trump voters underground.   I think it's quite likely that if the polls show Trump within 5 points or so of Clinton,  Trump could win.   If you're labeled a deplorable and irredeemable,  maybe you lash out that the election is rigged - or maybe you just clam up until you enter the voting booth.       

In this area, Trump signs are prominently displayed and left unmolested.
I'm no Trump supporter, but I see the peaceful, even passive expression of political opinion as a fundamental right, and would call to task anyone messing with any sign showing support of any candidate. If they disagree, they can put up their own sign on their property.

[Jazzhead]

In this area, Trump signs are prominently displayed and left unmolested.
I'm no Trump supporter, but I see the peaceful, even passive expression of political opinion as a fundamental right, and would call to task anyone messing with any sign showing support of any candidate. If they disagree, they can put up their own sign on their property.

Of course - that's just simple respect for our democratic process and the right of every citizen to voice his opinion.   And that respect is being denied Trump supporters, at least in my neck of the woods.   I've heard folks speculate about a hidden vote for Trump.   As the MSM becomes more hysterical in its hatred for Trump and its disdain for his supporters,  I think the credibility of polling is being fundamentally affected.   

[Smokin Joe]

Of course - that's just simple respect for our democratic process and the right of every citizen to voice his opinion.   And that respect is being denied Trump supporters, at least in my neck of the woods.   I've heard folks speculate about a hidden vote for Trump.   As the MSM becomes more hysterical in its hatred for Trump and its disdain for his supporters,  I think the credibility of polling is being fundamentally affected.   

Well, about the credibility of polling...
Long, long ago, on a site a few clicks away, people used to mob polls in an effort to change the outcome. Sometimes it was effective enough the poll results were discarded.

Considering the apparent amount of paid trollery out there this year, it wouldn't surprise me that the polls had been 'botted' or otherwise messed with, too. A common part of human nature is the desire to be on the winning side, no matter which side that is, just so they 'win'. I expect the polls are routinely manipulated to try to influence that class of voter, as are signs and ads.

The Bolsheviks did this in early 20th century Russia, naming themselves the "Majority Party", even though they were not. It works...people are still susceptible to it.

[LMAO]

Pence's elucidation regarding Trump's charge that the election is rigged bears examination.  Pence is right - the mainstream media has abandoned all pretense of neutrality in this election,  and is constantly pressing the meme that those who support Trump are irredeemable,  possibly as evil as the candidate himself.   In many places,  one cannot express oneself publically as a Trump supporter without being shamed.    One of my neighbors,  a couple of doors down from me, is the only one in the hood who's put up Trump signs.  And most mornings when I go out at dawn to walk my dog,  the Trump signs have been pulled down and tossed into the bushes.   My neighbor keeps putting the signs back up,  and overnight they keep coming down.

In this morning's WSJ,  I see a photo of a firebombed GOP office in Carolina,  with the story reporting graffiti exhorting "Nazi Republicans leave town or else".   

The mainstream media's campaign of shame is likely driving Trump voters underground.   I think it's quite likely that if the polls show Trump within 5 points or so of Clinton,  Trump could win.   If you're labeled a deplorable and irredeemable,  maybe you lash out that the election is rigged - or maybe you just clam up until you enter the voting booth.       

What  ever one thinks of Donald Trump,  he is still a legitimate candidate chosen by his party. In a perfect world, the press would lay out the good and the bad of both candidates and let the voters make up their mind.  I would think the news regarding the wiki leaks should be at least just as important as were Donald Trump has had his hands.

 I do think he is going to lose this election but not because of press bias. He is going to lose it for just basic reasons of his own making plus money is the mothers milk of politics and he's trying to do it on the cheap.  And not working to unite his own party. If Trump was conducting himself like a serious candidate, the press bias would have little effect

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Pence's elucidation regarding Trump's charge that the election is rigged bears examination.  Pence is right - the mainstream media has abandoned all pretense of neutrality in this election,  and is constantly pressing the meme that those who support Trump are irredeemable,  possibly as evil as the candidate himself.   In many places,  one cannot express oneself publically as a Trump supporter without being shamed.    One of my neighbors,  a couple of doors down from me, is the only one in the hood who's put up Trump signs.  And most mornings when I go out at dawn to walk my dog,  the Trump signs have been pulled down and tossed into the bushes.   My neighbor keeps putting the signs back up,  and overnight they keep coming down.

In this morning's WSJ,  I see a photo of a firebombed GOP office in Carolina,  with the story reporting graffiti exhorting "Nazi Republicans leave town or else".   

The mainstream media's campaign of shame is likely driving Trump voters underground.   I think it's quite likely that if the polls show Trump within 5 points or so of Clinton,  Trump could win.   If you're labeled a deplorable and irredeemable,  maybe you lash out that the election is rigged - or maybe you just clam up until you enter the voting booth.       

This is absolutely the truth. And with a better candidate, people wouldn't be distracted by his antics and see how biased the press is. But Trump unfortunately is his own worst enemy. His biggest failures are nearly all entirely self inflicted.

[Jazzhead]

This is absolutely the truth. And with a better candidate, people wouldn't be distracted by his antics and see how biased the press is. But Trump unfortunately is his own worst enemy. His biggest failures are nearly all entirely self inflicted.

The tragedy is that this was such a winnable election for us this year.    We were poised to keep Congress and win the Presidency - a recipe for real change.   Instead,  the Dems will likely win it all - because we let our "anti-establishment" anger get the best of us,  and nominated a freak.   

[dfwgator]

The tragedy is that this was such a winnable election for us this year.    We were poised to keep Congress and win the Presidency - a recipe for real change.   Instead,  the Dems will likely win it all - because we let our "anti-establishment" anger get the best of us,  and nominated a freak.

I don't think it's a given that any of the other potential nominees would have defeated Hillary.    We've all known the slime the Clintons are, since back in 1992, and they've never lost an election.   Unless you count Hillary losing out to Obama, and that was because Obama was the media darling du jour.

[Oceander]

I don't think it's a given that any of the other potential nominees would have defeated Hillary.    We've all known the slime the Clintons are, since back in 1992, and they've never lost an election.   Unless you count Hillary losing out to Obama, and that was because Obama was the media darling du jour.

There are no guarantees but we would have been asymptotically close with someone by Rubio. 

[Suppressed]

@Suppressed

Any particular sites you're referring to 

@LMAO

 :nometalk:

[geronl]

I guess he'll have a month or two to bribe and threaten the electors.

[geronl]

I don't think it's a given that any of the other potential nominees would have defeated Hillary.    We've all known the slime the Clintons are, since back in 1992, and they've never lost an election.   Unless you count Hillary losing out to Obama, and that was because Obama was the media darling du jour.

Trump is as big a slime as they are, it doesn't seem to help. lol

[EC]

The hell you all worried for?

If he doesn't have a legit path to 270, he'll just apply eminent domain.

[Emjay]

He's no longer trying to win because he knows that he won't win.

He's working on delegitimizing the US electoral system to excuse his loss in the eyes of his followers.

 

Sadly enough, they will believe him.  What's more, they are gearing up to believe that the election will be stolen from him.  There's a little malaise over there.  Not many posts about his rallies... maybe 20 instead of 2000.

Not many political topics can be introduced at all since so few favor Trump.

So TOS is in the soup and clawing for enough donations to go on.