Why the Presidential Race Will Stay Competitive
On the issues, Hillary is losing.
By Jeffrey H. Anderson — October 17, 2016
For all of the recent talk about inevitability, the presidential race is still very much up for grabs. As of Sunday afternoon, the Real Clear Politics average of recent polls shows Hillary Clinton with just 48 percent support in a two-way race (to Donald Trump’s 42 percent). In a four-way race, RCP shows her with 45 percent support (to Trump’s 39 percent). The website FiveThirtyEight’s “polls-plus forecast” gives Clinton an 83 percent chance of winning — so roll a die, and one side comes up Trump.
Moreover, post-debate polls find the candidates running neck-and-neck in Ohio. They find Clinton leading by only 3 points in New Hampshire and 5 points in Colorado. (Clinton is ahead by double-digits, however, in post-debate polling in Michigan.) Rasmussen’s post-debate polling finds Trump up by 2 points, whereas he was down by 5 points in Rasmussen’s (mostly) pre-debate polling. Rasmussen is only rated as a C+ poll by FiveThirtyEight, but the 7-point swing from pre- to post-debate is notable.
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