Hillary Clinton Does Not Have a Six-Point Lead Over Donald Trump
September 23, 2016 By Richard D. Baris
The 2016 Presidential Election is Testing My Faith in Aggregate Polling
For those of you who read and follow People’s Pundit Daily, particularly our election projection models, you know I am a true believer in the average of polls and aggregate data. I do not believe in “unskewing” the polls nor the practice of weighting polling results for party identification. Party identification, which is fluid, is not the same as party registration and respondents should dictate to pollsters what the party breakdown of the electorate will be, not the other way around.
That being said, the 2016 presidential election is testing my faith. First, there are too many polls and not enough pollsters. Simply put, the same firms that completely blew the 2014 midterm elections and, subsequently, the 2016 primary elections, are doubling down on being statistically stupid. Most clearly refuse to improve on their model’s assumptions and methodologies and, as a result, the aggregate polling is over the place.
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https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/news/elections/2016/09/23/hillary-clinton-does-not-have-a-six-point-lead-over-donald-trump/
