CBS News Battleground Tracking Poll: Clinton leads in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, as email questions linger

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SOURCE: CBS NEWS

URL: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-hillary-clinton-leads-donald-trump-north-carolina-pennsylvania-email-questions-linger/

by: Anthony Salvanto


The presidential race heads into the home stretch with Clinton in the lead, but questions linger for both her and for Donald Trump.

For Clinton, it is whether she can move historically high unfavorable numbers, and turn that polling lead into actual votes; for Trump, it is whether he can change the minds of enough voters beyond his durable base, and take back key battleground states in which he trails. It is a race in which at least one-third of each candidates’ voters say they’re motivated mostly by opposition to the other candidate, and one-quarter feel they’re merely settling for a choice between candidates they aren’t happy with. It is not so much that voters are undecided between the two – few actually are - but rather that they appear unconvinced by either one.

This week, Clinton leads in two new polls of states that Trump needs to win, given his current electoral map: Clinton leads in Pennsylvania fairly comfortably by eight points, 45 percent to 37 percent, and she is up four in North Carolina, 46 - 42 percent.





More broadly, when we look across all states that may be in play -- or could come into play this fall depending on the race – that’s now 13 total - Clinton holds an overall two-point lead across them.
battleground-map.jpg

For Clinton, doubts about her explanations of the email server continue to weigh on her. Forty-six percent across the battlegrounds say those explanations are changing and getting less believable. The same percentage say those explanations remain the same. Only 7 percent feel the explanations are getting more believable.

Voters are more apt to feel her campaign is driven a lot by her own desire to be president – 77 percent - more than by a sincere desire for a better America, at 30 percent. And 51 percent feel that her campaign is driven by doing what donors and party leaders want. Trump does a little better by comparison on motivation, with 59 percent saying it is his own desire and 37 percent -- higher than Clinton -- driven by his desire for a better country. He is much lower than Clinton on being seen as driven by donors and party leaders: just 10 percent feel he’s driven a lot by that.

In a week that saw Donald Trump’s trip to Mexico and speech on immigration, more voters (47 percent) across the battlegrounds feel his policy on immigration has not changed, while 37 percent say he has changed policies to become easier on those in the U.S. illegally. Neither of those views appears to have done much to his vote share, though it illustrates the difficulty he may have satisfying both his base and trying to broaden his appeal on the topic. Conservatives are not more likely than anyone else to see softening on immigration policy – so, if he was trying to assure them with his Arizona speech after the Mexico trip, perhaps he did. His voters who feel he has held steady are relatively more enthusiastic about him, in general, than those who feel he has changed.

More generally, both candidates’ outreach to minority groups is met with cynicism, and partisanship plays a dominant role in these views. Majorities of voters feel Clinton and Trump’s outreach to minority groups is based more on a search for votes than actual attempts to help people: 65 percent say the former of Trump, 64 percent of Clinton. Moreover, voters see each of the candidates appealing to some racial groups over others, but they don’t agree on who is doing the dividing. Democrats think Trump is while Republicans think Clinton is.

The map overall continues to favor Clinton, and the demographic patterns are the same as we’ve seen before and seen elsewhere, in this regard reflecting a somewhat stable race: Clinton relies on younger voters, African American voters, on moderates, and on doing relatively well with those with college and postgraduate degrees. The pooled battleground states include North Carolina and Pennsylvania here, and also a look at Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Iowa, Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin. In recent weeks, including surveys done since the conventions, Arizona and Georgia have shown Trump with narrow leads, all the rest with a Clinton lead, including some even in double digits, except Iowa, which was recently tied.

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METHODOLOGY:

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED AND THE MARGIN OF ERROR CALCULATED

The CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker is a panel study based on interviews conducted on the internet of registered voters in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire,Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin, California, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, New York, South Carolina, and Texas.

The poll was conducted by YouGov, an online polling organization.The most recent wave interviewed registered voters on August 30-September 2, 2016 in thirteen bat-tleground states (Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire,Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin) and combined single state polls in North Carolina and Pennsylvania.The first wave was fielded between September 3-10, 2015, with 4860 respondents, and the second wavefieldwork was completed between October 15-22, 2015, with 3952 respondents and the third wave between November 15-19, 2015. The fourth wave was fielded between December 13-17, 2015.

The majority of the2nd-4th wave respondents are recontacted panelists. The first 4 waves consist of interviews in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina only. The fifth wave added new interviews in Florida, Georgia, and Texas,and was completed between January 17-21, 2016. The sixth wave was fielded only in South Carolina, with interviews completed February 10-12, 2016. The seventh wave was fielded also in February, among panelists in Georgia, Texas, and Virginia.

The eighth wave fielded February 22-26, 2016, and recontacted panelists from the January wave in Georgia and Texas. Virginia respondents were all new to the panel. The ninth wave was fielded to new respondents in Michigan from March 2-4, 2016, and in addition, respondents in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio were contacted March 9-11, 2016. Respondents in New York, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were contacted March 29-April 1, 2016 for the tenth wave. In the eleventh wave of our primary surveys, respondents in California, New York, and Pennsylvania were contacted April 13-15, 2016. The twelveth was conducted April 20-22, 2016 and interviewed panelists in Indiana and Pennsylvania.

The thirteenth wave was the first general election poll, and was conducted of registered voters in Florida and Ohio May 16-19, 2016. The fourteenth wave was fielded May 31-June 3, 2016, and consists of registered voters in California and New Jersey, interviewing both those likely to vote in the November general election and the upcoming Democratic primary election.

The fifteenth wave of the Battleground Tracker interviewed registered voters in Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Wisconsin from June 21-24, 2016.The July waves were conducted before and after the conventions. These waves interviewed registered voters on July 13-15, 2016 in eleven battleground states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina,New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin) and combined single state polls in Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio.

 All YouGov respondents were recontacted July 15-16, 2016 for a follow-up survey on the Trump Vice Presidential announcement, were recontacted again July 22-23, 2016 for a follow-up survey at the conclusion of the Republican National Convention, and finally recontacted July 29-30, 2016for a follow-up survey at the conclusion of the Democratic National Convention.The seventeenth wave interviewed registered voters in Arizona, Nevada, and Virginia on August 2-5,2016. The eighteen wave interviewed registered voters in Florida, Georgia, and New Hampshire on August10-12, 2016. The eighteenth interviewed registered voters in Iowa and Ohio on August 17-19, 2016.Respondents were selected from YouGovs and two other online panels. These are “opt-in” panels which are open for anyone to join. However, YouGov also randomly selected persons from voter registration lists who had previously voted in primary elections and contacted them by phone. A total of 24017 registered voters were contacted by phone and the YouGov sample includes 1821 phone recruits.Recontact rates ranged from 34% to 75% for each state for the reinterview waves. In addition, new respondents were selected from the YouGov panel each wave.For the October, November, and December waves, all respondents from previous waves were contacted to participate. In the January wave, all respondents from previous waves in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina were contacted to participate. Florida, Georgia, and Texas are completely new interviews. In the February wave, all respondents from previous South Carolina waves were contacted to participate. In the March wave, all respondents from the previous Florida wave were invited to participate. All respondents from the New York survey in late March were invited to participate in the April wave. In the June 21-24

[Chosen Daughter]

To me the fact that this woman can even run for president shows the stupidity of the nation.  Stupidity to say that we will not charge a woman who has endangered the safety of it citizens and the security of the nation.  How is it possible.  The whole election is a choice of excrement or excrement.

What have we become?