SOURCE:
EMERSON COLLEGE POLLING SOCIETYURL:
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_ce9f61436f9b420dbb5ef12240d1424a.pdf
September 2, 2016
Media Contact: Prof. Spencer Kimball
Emerson College Polling Advisor
Spencer_Kimball@emerson.edu
617-824-8737
BOSTON, MA - A new Virginia poll conducted by Emerson College finds Hillary Clinton just one point
ahead of Donald Trump, 44% to 43%, with Libertarian Gary Johnson taking 11% and the Green Party’s Jill
Stein at 3%. The poll of 800 likely voters was August 30- September 1.
In Iowa, a new poll finds Trump leading 44% to 39% with Johnson at 8% and Stein at 1%. Eight percent
(8%) were undecided. In the US Senate race, Senator Chuck Grassley leads Patty Judge 51% to 40% with
6% undecided. This poll of 600 likely voters was conducted from August 31- September 1.
VirginiaAlthough Clinton’s running mate is Virginia Senator Tim Kaine, he does not seem to be aiding her
favorability numbers. Under water, Clinton has a 15-point favorability deficit, with 41% viewing her
favorably and 56% unfavorably. Trump’s scores were even worse with 37% favorable/60% unfavorable
(-23).
Consistent with other Emerson polls conducted during the past week, both candidates have very high
rates of loyalty in Virginia—96% for Trump, 92% for Clinton—meaning voters who approve of a
candidate also plan to vote for the individual. By a substantial margin, 55% to 33%, respondents expect
Clinton to win the presidency over Trump, while 8% are undecided.
Independents favor Trump to Clinton, 47% to 28%, with 19% voting for Johnson. Among Democrats,
85% plan to vote for Clinton while 9% are crossing over to Trump and 5% to Johnson. The crossover
pattern is similar among Republicans, with Trump receiving 81% of the vote, Clinton 7% and Johnson
10%.
Trump holds a wide lead over Clinton among white voters, 54% to 31%, with Johnson at 13%. Clinton’s
strongest support lies in the minority and female vote. African-Americans heavily favor her (79% to
15%) as do Hispanic voters (61% to 25%). Men are supporting Trump 53% to Clinton’s 32%, while Clinton
is winning 54% of the female vote to Trump’s 34%.
Clinton is winning in the Northern area of the state 43% to 34% and in the Southeast region 47% to 42%
while Trumps’ stronghold is in the south western portion of the state, where he is pulling away 57% to
39%.
It appears bad blood between Trump and his primary opponents are carrying over to the General with
only 36% of Kasich supporters voting for him, 56% of Rubio voters and 73% of Cruz voters. Clinton is
having a similar issue with Bernie Sanders voters as 63% say they will vote for Clinton, 16% for Trump,
15% for Johnson and 6% for Stein.
Eight in 10 respondents (81%) say they have made up their mind and won’t change their vote before the
election.
IowaIowa voters do not appear happy with either Presidential candidate. Trump holds a 37% favorable
opinion and a 58% unfavorable while Clinton is even further behind with a 35% favorable and 62%
unfavorable. In the Senate race the voters have a positive opinion of Grassley 48% to 39% but Judge
finds herself underwater with a 34% favorable and 36% unfavorable opinion.
Clinton is having difficulty securing the Democrat vote as currently she is at 78% while Trump is taking
86% of the GOP vote. Independents are breaking for Clinton 34% to 33% with 16% voting for Johnson.
Once again 34% of Sanders voters are supporting another candidate other than Clinton.
Gender continues to be a significant variable as women are breaking for Clinton 47% to 39% but males
are breaking for Trump 51% to 30%.
Clinton wins the younger vote (18-34 year olds) 47% to 37% but Trump continues to hold his lead with
voter 35-54 at 47% to 32%. Clinton is doing better with the white voter losing 44% to 41%. Clinton is
doing well in the Northeast (39% to 32%) and the Southwest (46% to 43%) but is losing in the Southeast
59% to 31% and in the Northwest (43% to 40%).
CALLER ID:The Emerson College Polling Society Virginia poll was conducted August 30-September 1. The sample
consisted of 800 likely general election voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4%. Data was weighted by
2012 election results, party affiliation, age and gender. The Emerson College Polling Society Iowa poll
was conducted August 31-September 1. The sample consisted of 600 likely general election voters with a
margin of error of +/- 3.9%. Data was weighted by 2012 election results, party affiliation, age and
gender. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age and party breakdowns carry with
them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive
Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only
