Trump most likely only has a one in sixteen chance of winning

[Oceander]

Based on analysis of current trends, the WSJ has an article stating, in brief, that there are four battleground states that Trump must win - i.e., win all four - if he is to have even a chance of winning overall.  That assumes the "safe" states for each party stay as they are. 

That means that if Clinton wins just one of those states, Trump loses.  If you do the combinatorics on four states with two options for each state, you end up with 16 unique combinations, only one of which has Trump winning all four states.  That means that Trumps chances, based on current data and the assumption that all the other states will remain the same, are one in sixteen. 

Yes, that looks worse than the opinion polls alone indicate, but there's a reason for that:  the electoral college, the way that electoral college votes are assigned, and the state-by-state nature of the presidential election.  Basically, a nation wide opinion poll is almost meaningless because it does not take these factors into account. 

So, as I've said repeatedly before: dear Trumpkins, thank you for picking the one candidate who will guarantee that Clinton is the next president. 

[Resp3]

Trump’s Narrowing Path As the traditional Labor Day kickoff of the fall presidential race approaches, Donald Trump faces an increasingly narrow path to the White House. A Trump victory over Hillary Clinton likely would require a sweep of a set of battleground states where he is competitive but trailing in recent opinion polls—Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Mrs. Clinton, by contrast, could win with just one of them, partly because Democrats start with a larger number of states that historically side with them. Meanwhile, Mr. Trump has been asking for support from African-American voters and said he was open to “softening” immigration laws to accommodate law-abiding people who are in the country illegally, if they “contribute to society.” We also report that both candidates are facing questions over transparency for conducting their fundraisers behind closed doors. And questions are piling up around Mrs. Clinton’s emails and what they tell us about links between the Clinton Foundation and her tenure at the State Department.

[mystery-ak]

Link please

[Night Hides Not]

I'm only posting this to keep from crying.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

If Trump wins the popular he will almost certainly win the election. He's 4.3 points behind Clinton at this point in the RCP polling average, which is very accurate.

Not great but but certainly doable.

Of course Trump is a jackass who can't keep his mouth shut, which is why he's struggling so much against such an unpopular candidate like Clinton.

Both sides are wrong: Trump will probably not face a Mondale like loss, nor will he beat Hillary. He'll do about the same as McCain in 2008.

Had we choose Ted Cruz, I believe that Cruz could've won people over. Trump has no chance, the people know he's a jackass.

[Night Hides Not]

If Trump wins the popular he will almost certainly win the election. He's 4.3 points behind Clinton at this point in the RCP polling average, which is very accurate.

Not great but but certainly doable.

Of course Trump is a jackass who can't keep his mouth shut, which is why he's struggling so much against such an unpopular candidate like Clinton.

Both sides are wrong: Trump will probably not face a Mondale like loss, nor will he beat Hillary. He'll do about the same as McCain in 2008.

Had we choose Ted Cruz, I believe that Cruz could've won people over. Trump has no chance, the people know he's a jackass.

I maintain my opinion that no matter who wins, there will not be a honeymoon for the new President. The lingering stains of 25 years of Clinton Family Corruption will not wash out, no matter how hard the MSM tries. When over 60% of the American people deem a candidate "untrustworthy", there will be no mandates.

To be an effective leader, one's word must be their bond. Neither Trump or Clinton can be effective. The only way they'll be able to do anything is via Executive Orders, as Congress at worst will be divided. Both the House and Senate will not enjoy commanding majorities by either party. Republicans know they can expect primary opponents in 2018 should they stray too closely to the Democrats.

Just my $.02.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

I maintain my opinion that no matter who wins, there will not be a honeymoon for the new President. The lingering stains of 25 years of Clinton Family Corruption will not wash out, no matter how hard the MSM tries. When over 60% of the American people deem a candidate "untrustworthy", there will be no mandates.

To be an effective leader, one's word must be their bond. Neither Trump or Clinton can be effective. The only way they'll be able to do anything is via Executive Orders, as Congress at worst will be divided. Both the House and Senate will not enjoy commanding majorities by either party. Republicans know they can expect primary opponents in 2018 should they stray too closely to the Democrats.

Just my $.02.

Economy is due for a correction next quarter, and whoever is in office will be the "hot potato". Clinton is going in as an unlikable candidate, so I doubt she'll be able to pull off any charm offensive.

In a weird way nominating Trump might have been a good decision for the GOP, as they won't be blamed when the economy collapses.

[geronl]

In a weird way nominating Trump might have been a good decision for the GOP, as they won't be blamed when the economy collapses.

Yes they will, they always are.

[Night Hides Not]

Economy is due for a correction next quarter, and whoever is in office will be the "hot potato". Clinton is going in as an unlikable candidate, so I doubt she'll be able to pull off any charm offensive.

In a weird way nominating Trump might have been a good decision for the GOP, as they won't be blamed when the economy collapses.

Including "charm offensive" in any sentence with HRC gives me the same vibe as a description of her husband as an "alleged philanderer." The twain shall never meet.

[Jazzhead]

It's less than a one in sixteen chance, because Trump is likely to lose a few states that Romney and McCain won, such as Utah and Georgia. 

Trump's problem is that while he courts less-educated whites,  he is losing the traditional GOP support provided by college- educated whites.  Romney won college-educated whites by 16 points in 2012,  but this time around polls indicate Trump may actually lose this group.  While he may well motivate less-educated whites to vote in greater numbers,  it's unlikely those gains will offset the losses from college-educated whites.

The reasons for these losses are clear enough - college-educated whites don't subscribe to Trump's dark vision of American decline, they are more likely to understand how free trade has helped grow the economy, and they are more likely to be appalled at Trump's naked appeals to racial identity and xenophobia. 

[Night Hides Not]

It's less than a one in sixteen chance, because Trump is likely to lose a few states that Romney and McCain won, such as Utah and Georgia. 

Trump's problem is that while he courts less-educated whites,  he is losing the traditional GOP support provided by college- educated whites.  Romney won college-educated whites by 16 points in 2012,  but this time around polls indicate Trump may actually lose this group.  While he may well motivate less-educated whites to vote in greater numbers,  it's unlikely those gains will offset the losses from college-educated whites.

The reasons for these losses are clear enough - college-educated whites don't subscribe to Trump's dark vision of American decline, they are more likely to understand how free trade has helped grow the economy, and they are more likely to be appalled at Trump's naked appeals to racial identity and xenophobia.

For me, it's simpler than that, though your observation is spot on. As a former military officer, there is no way I can vote for a man with the petulance of a 9 YO boy to be the next CinC. 

And that was before his remarks on the Purple Heart.

[CSM]

Based on analysis of current trends, the WSJ has an article stating, in brief, that there are four battleground states that Trump must win - i.e., win all four - if he is to have even a chance of winning overall.  That assumes the "safe" states for each party stay as they are. 

That means that if Clinton wins just one of those states, Trump loses.  If you do the combinatorics on four states with two options for each state, you end up with 16 unique combinations, only one of which has Trump winning all four states.  That means that Trumps chances, based on current data and the assumption that all the other states will remain the same, are one in sixteen. 

Yes, that looks worse than the opinion polls alone indicate, but there's a reason for that:  the electoral college, the way that electoral college votes are assigned, and the state-by-state nature of the presidential election.  Basically, a nation wide opinion poll is almost meaningless because it does not take these factors into account. 

So, as I've said repeatedly before: dear Trumpkins, thank you for picking the one candidate who will guarantee that Clinton is the next president.

Well, what are the 4 states in the article?  @Oceander

[Jazzhead]

For me, it's simpler than that, though your observation is spot on. As a former military officer, there is no way I can vote for a man with the petulance of a 9 YO boy to be the next CinC. 

And that was before his remarks on the Purple Heart.

That's my basic problem, too, NHN.   My disagreements with Trump on, say, trade policy, wouldn't make me vote to defeat him in November, especially given the alternative.   Hillary's terrible, but Trump is, ultimately, worse because his petulance and megalomania will cause him to act recklessly, in ways that will endanger the security of the nation and the lives of our fighting men.   

[Night Hides Not]

Well, what are the 4 states in the article?  @Oceander

I'll hazard a guess: Florida, PA, Ohio, North Carolina.

[NavyCanDo]

If Trump wins the popular he will almost certainly win the election.

You do know Bush in 2000 lost the popular vote?   Along with 3 other presidents in history. If Trump wants any chance his ground game must be focused on swing States with large electoral votes like  FL, OH, PENN, VA

[Night Hides Not]

That's my basic problem, too, NHN.   My disagreements with Trump on, say, trade policy, wouldn't make me vote to defeat him in November, especially given the alternative.   Hillary's terrible, but Trump is, ultimately, worse because his petulance and megalomania will cause him to act recklessly, in ways that will endanger the security of the nation and the lives of our fighting men.   

Apologies for retelling a story, but I was a staunch advocate for Reagan during the '80 election. My German neighbors were convinced that Reagan would start WWIII. Over an 8-10 week period leading up to the election, I engaged them 2-3 times a week in the neighborhood gasthaus (restaurant). It really wasn't difficult, because Reagan had been a governor, and had a longstanding record on key positions. I used my training and knowledge of history and American civics to explain (in German) why Reagan was better than Carter. Checkmate occurred on Inauguration Day, when the hostages were released.  I was in my last year in Germany, at the ripe old age of 26.

I cannot imagine advocating for Trump in the manner I did for Reagan.

[libertybele]

During the primary Trump supporters were warned that among ALL the candidates he had the lowest favorability rating and he also was the least likely of the candidates to beat Hillary.  His supporters assumed since he could draw a large crowd that it would equate to him winning the general.  LIV don't take into account the electoral college.  Nor did the LIV understand that he did better in mostly open primaries and there's a reason why.  Secondly, and perhaps the realization has finally hit them alongside the head; Trump was never in this to win.  We had Cruz, Rubio or Kasich who would have beaten Hillary ... and we wind up with the worst candidate in history; an orange baboon with the temperament of a 3rd grade bully and the only thing he cares about is lining his pockets.  Trust me and Believe Me!

[CSM]

I'll hazard a guess: Florida, PA, Ohio, North Carolina.

I suspect that you are correct, I'd just like to know the "money quote" from a posted article!

 

[Night Hides Not]

I suspect that you are correct, I'd just like to know the "money quote" from a posted article!

 

Full disclosure: I knew the first three, forgot about NC, found it in an WSJ op-ed.

[CSM]

I think the reality is that it all comes down to PA.  If Trump doesn't win there, then the election is Hillary's.  That's just my gut....

[ScottinVA]

If Trump wins the popular he will almost certainly win the election. He's 4.3 points behind Clinton at this point in the RCP polling average, which is very accurate.

Not great but but certainly doable.

Of course Trump is a jackass who can't keep his mouth shut, which is why he's struggling so much against such an unpopular candidate like Clinton.

Both sides are wrong: Trump will probably not face a Mondale like loss, nor will he beat Hillary. He'll do about the same as McCain in 2008.

Had we choose Ted Cruz, I believe that Cruz could've won people over. Trump has no chance, the people know he's a jackass.

Just imagine if a viable candidate received the GOP nomination... we'd be seeing "media" stories about "how Hillary Clinton can beat the odds and win in November."

[Suppressed]

I think the reality is that it all comes down to PA.  If Trump doesn't win there, then the election is Hillary's.  That's just my gut....

I have exactly the same gut feel.  And I see odd patterns of support in PA.  Many Dem areas have lots of Trump signs; many GOP areas have lots of Hillary signs.  But I think that's because Trump is drawing in the low-education voters who've tended to go Dem before, and the highly educated suburban Country-Club Republicans are crossing over to Hillary.

[geronl]

You do know Bush in 2000 lost the popular vote?   Along with 3 other presidents in history. If Trump wants any chance his ground game must be focused on swing States with large electoral votes like  FL, OH, PENN, VA

I don't think Hillary needs any swing states to win.

[Frank Cannon]

You do know Bush in 2000 lost the popular vote?   Along with 3 other presidents in history. If Trump wants any chance his ground game must be focused on swing States with large electoral votes like  FL, OH, PENN, VA

Trump is finished in PA. He is 10 down and has absolutely no ground game. You would be hard pressed to see a Trump sticker on a car here. Not that many Hitlary stickers though.

[Suppressed]

Trump is finished in PA. He is 10 down and has absolutely no ground game. You would be hard pressed to see a Trump sticker on a car here. Not that many Hitlary stickers though.

What part of PA?

Has the GOP ever had any ground game where you are?!