What is staggering is that the 535,000 bopd lost decline of the past two years will be more than made up by next year.
535,000 is a questionable number.
The average of 2015 production is 9,415,000 bpd.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbblpd_a.htmThe peak monthly production in 2015 was 9,627,000 bpd in April.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=MThe latest oil production numbers are 8,512,000 bpd.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_epc0_fpf_mbblpd_w.htmSo our production numbers have dropped by 1.1 million bpd. That has been the trend.
As for Shale field specifically, it is not looking to be our savior in the near future.
In the Bakken, the drop in production per month has averaged:
2.5% drop in the last 9 months
2.6% drop in the last 6 months
3.3% drop in the last 3 months.
In the Eagle Ford, the drop in production per month has averaged:
4.3% drop in the last 9 months
5.1% drop in the last 6 months
5.2% drop in the last 3 months.
In the Permian Basin, they have held their own, actually a slight gain averaging 0.1% to 0.5% gains over the same time period.
In the Niobrara, the drop in production per month has averaged:
2.8% drop in the last 9 months
3.2% drop in the last 6 months
2.9% drop in the last 3 months.
http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/xls/dpr-data.xlsxI don't look at these trends and see any way that our domestic shale field oil production is going to be more than made up next year.