http://www.wsj.com/articles/voter-influx-appears-missing-for-trump-1471912460Voter Influx Appears Missing for TrumpRegistrations in battlegrounds show modest rise from 2012, analysis finds; whites make up larger share of new-voter pool
By BYRON TAU
Aug. 22, 2016 8:34 p.m. ET
This year’s presidential primaries produced a slight increase in new voters compared with 2012, but not in numbers that suggest a major influx that might benefit Republican candidate Donald Trump, a new analysis of voter registration data finds.
The study by the Democratic firm Catalist, which analyzed records from 10 battleground states this year through June, suggest that the record-breaking turnout seen in the Republican primaries was the result of general election voters becoming motivated to show up for the party’s turbulent primary season, rather than a big inflow of new supporters into the Republican Party.
But in potential good news for the Trump campaign, Catalist found that white voters accounted for a larger share of the new-voter pool in the first half of this year compared with 2012, and that the number and share of African-Americans was down. Mr. Trump has been trying to capitalize on his strong support among working-class whites, while his hold on African-American voters is weak, polling shows.
Mr. Trump has said that his candidacy during the primary season was drawing large numbers of new voters to the GOP, who would carry him to victory in November. The Catalist findings, from a large analysis of registrations, suggest that the pool of new voters in 10 of the most competitive states is so far relatively stable compared with previous election cycles, barring any major new spikes in fall voter registration.
Similarly, a Republican firm, Øptimus, concluded in a two-state analysis that the GOP primaries were activating general-election voters to participate in primaries rather than adding large numbers of new voters to the rolls. In Ohio, for example, the firm found that 46.4% of primary voters this year had never before voted before in a party primary, but only about 6% had never voted before in any election, its study found.
“It appears Trump has created new Republican voters, but what remains to be seen is if the modest increase is enough to overcome losses among the longtime Republican voting electorate,” said Scott Tranter, a co-founder of Øptimus.
In its study, Catalist found that about 1.4 million people joined the voter rolls in 10 battleground states this year through June, compared with about 1.3 million in 2012.
New registrations compared with 2008 were lower in nine of the 10 states studied. Ohio was the only exception.
“The data covers the period of the Republican primaries, when Donald Trump was proclaiming that he was going to change the electorate and bring lots of new people in,” said Mike Podhorzer, co-chairman of Catalist’s board of managers, who also is the AFL-CIO political director.
He said the data show that “the Trump effect in the primaries was to energize a lot of people who were Republican voters in the first place’’ and who voted in general elections but had tended to skip primaries.
The share of white voters in the new-voter pool rose by nearly 16% in the first half of this year compared with 2012, the Catalist study found. The share of African-Americans fell by 12% and also was down from 2008, when President Barack Obama’s presence on the ticket helped drive black turnout.
The share of Hispanics among new voters this year rose by more than 40% compared with 2012.
Ohio, a state that is crucial to Mr. Trump’s efforts, is one state that has seen an influx of white voters. About 20,000 more new white voters registered this year than in 2012.
Mr. Trump is hoping to maximize his turnout among white voters without a college degree in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, among other states.
Historical patterns show that voter registration rises in the weeks leading up to Election Day, and so it remains possible that Mr. Trump could energize new voters before the general election. About 90 million Americans who are eligible voters don’t cast ballots at all, in either primary or general election campaigns.
Catalist’s analysis covers voter registrations in Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia, and runs between January through the end of June. The analysis used data on race from states that collect that information; for others, the firm creates models to assess the race of voters based on data taken from other sources.
Donald Trump’s approximately 13.3 million votes represents the high-water mark of Republican primary votes in any modern campaign. It bests a record set by George W. Bush in 2000 when he captured 12.1 million votes on his way to the GOP nomination and eventually the White House.
A spokesperson for the Trump campaign didn’t respond to a request for comment.
