Trump performs better among independents–Reuters/lpsos pollhttps://sharylattkisson.com/trump-performs-better-among-independents-reuterslpsos-poll/sattkisson
August 20, 2016
Clinton leads Trump by 8-points– in poll that interviewed 16% more Democrats
The following is a media news analysis
Because this feature is proving popular, here’s another installment of my look at the media’s reporting on presidential polling. This article reports “Clinton leads Trump by eight points” in the latest online Reuters/lpsos poll.
Like the other polls I’ve recently highlighted, the Reuters/lpsos poll appears to have interviewed significantly more Democrats than Republicans. This is not disclosed in the news articles.
According to data on p. 14 of the poll, 46% of the respondents identify as Democrats (strong, moderate or leaning) and 30% identify as Republicans (strong, moderate or leaning).
Read the Reuters/lpsos poll
Assuming 16% more Democrats than Republicans turn out to vote in the November general election, the results may correlate with the poll. But what if an equal number from each party turns out? What if more Republicans than Democrats vote? Obviously, that could change the results, the same way this poll would likely read differently had it interviewed 16% more Republicans. There’s no indication that the poll has adjusted for this factor (though it has adjusted for factors such as gender, age and education).
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