Pollster Zogby: 'Back to a close race,' Clinton 38%, Trump 36%
By Paul Bedard (@SecretsBedard) • 8/16/16 2:57 PM
The convention polling bumps for Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton and Republican Donald Trump are over, and they are practically even, according to a new poll of likely voters.
A Zogby Analytics survey provided to Secrets Tuesday shows:
Hillary Clinton 38%
Donald Trump 36%
Libertarian Gary Johnson 8%
Green Party Jill Stein 5%
Not sure 13%
"It seems the convention bumps are behind us and we are back to a close race!" said the analysis.
What's new in the online poll is that older millennials are starting to trend to Trump.
Trump's team believes that online polls more accurately show the horserace because more and more voters prefer to give their opinions anonymously.
Pollster John Zogby is a specialist in digging into specific voting blocks, some of which he has given names like NASCAR and Weekly Walmart voters. Zogby revealed in the new poll analysis that those two groups of voters trended Democratic under President Obama, but are now behind Trump.
Overall, Zogby said that Clinton leads middle income voters, blacks, women and Hispanics. Trump leads among independents, men and older voters.
The takeaways from Zogby Analytics' analysis:
— Donald Trump continues to lead among his core groups, which are men, he leads Clinton 41% to 35%. He also leads Clinton among older likely voters such as 50-64 year olds (41%-36%), and those 65+ (44%-36%).
— Trump's numbers have dipped a little among middle income voters, Hillary Clinton now leads among those voters who earn $35k-50k (38%-37%), $50k-75K (37%-34%) and $75-100k (45-35%). Clinton also leads big among her core base-Millennials 18-29 years old (36%-26%), 18-24 year olds (59%-22%), Hispanics (51%-18%) and African Americans (81%-8%), which is not a big surprise. She has also won back the support of women voters, which Trump had narrowed the gap in our last poll; Clinton is winning among women 42% to 32%.
— Trump has kept the race close by winning Independents. He is winning Independents 32% to 26% and has also closed the gap among older Millennials. Trump is tied with Clinton at 30% among 25-34 year old voters.
