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CNN Poll of Polls Puts Clinton at 10 Points Over Trump
Monday, August 8, 2016 08:05 AM
By: Sandy Fitzgerald
The CNN Poll of Polls, which tallies the results of six major polls conducted after the two political parties wrapped up their conventions in late July, gives Hillary Clinton a 10-point lead over Donald Trump, even when third party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are included.
Without Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, and Stein, representing the Green Party:
Clinton: 49 percent;
Trump: 39 percent.
With Johnson and Stein:
Clinton: 45 percent;
Trump: 35 percent;
Johnson: 9 percent;
Stein: 5 percent.
The new average show a huge boost from the previous, pre-convention CNN Poll of Polls, which put Clinton ahead of Trump by 45-41 percent.
Trump was ahead of Clinton by a small margin between the two convention, reports CNN, based on live-interview telephone polls, as there was not enough polling between the two events to conduct a full Poll of Poll analysis.
However, Clinton has gotten a large bump in almost all the polls after the Democratic convention in Philadelphia wrapped up, pushing her numbers above Trump's.
The poll is significant, CNN reports, as the candidate who holds the lead after both major party conventions almost always goes on to become president, with the exception of Al Gore in 2000.
That year, Gore was ahead by four points after a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, and did go on to squeeze a popular vote win by a half a percentage point, but he lost the White House in the Electoral College to George W. Bush.
The conventions this summer, though, were held earlier than they had been at any point since 1960, leaving voters over three months to change their minds.
Johnson's numbers showed an unusual bump after the two major conventions. Usually, third-party candidates' support tends to drop after the major party nominations become final, but his support is still holding on. However, he still does not have the 15 percent threshold he would need to join Clinton and Trump on the debate state this fall, CNN reports.
The Poll of Polls covered all polls that were conducted between July 29 and Aug. 4, all fo which were done by telephone by live interviewers.
CNN's roundup includes the CNN/ORC Poll, the CBS News Poll, the Fox News Poll, the NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll, the Marist/McClatchy Poll and the ABC News/Washington Post Poll, and did not carry a margin of error.
