From the original article:
There are methods for projecting and allocating undecided voters based on complex attitude structures, based on many questions that tell the pollster that this person is in movement to support someone, he said. “Sometimes, they are hiding. That happens. Particularly in the past, or in racially-sensitive cases.”
I posted about this a few days ago, but I'll reiterate.
There's another factor why the polls could be "less predictive" of the results this time around.
That's because there is an increasing percentage of the electorate that refuses to deal with pollsters. And the lion's share of this cohort are tradtionally-minded Americans, many older, mostly white.
It's more than simply "attitude", it's technology as well that is making it increasingly difficult to sample "the old white guy vote". (Disclaimer -- I -am- an "old white guy").
Caller ID in paticular has helped.
I simply don't answer the phone anymore. I wait for callerID to pop up the info on who's calling. If the call is coming from someone I can easily identify and know, I -might- answer the phone. Otherwise it "goes to the machine". Even then, I rarely give a callback.
Truth be told, I just don't want to talk to you, and that means YOU.
But now there are ever-more-easily-accessible means to thwart unwanted calls before they even get to callerID.
I recently signed up with a service (free at the consumer level) called "nomorobo".
How you get it working depends on which ISP/VOIP provider you're with. In my case, I had to activate the "voicemail" features of my internet VOIP account, and set up a "simultaneous ring" feature that rings nomorobo whenever my own phone rings.
Nomorobo "catches" the call at the first ring and compares the incoming number against a database of known robocallers and spammers. If the number matches, the call is immediately cut off (no second ring) and the callerID is displayed.
I was impressed at how well this works.
Now, I gather than -some- calls can get through, such as "politically-based" calls (i.e., from campaign boiler rooms, etc.).
I'm not sure how "polling calls" are handled.
But in any case, I wouldn't answer them, so I never talk to pollsters.
The other "old white guys" I know probably act similarly.
And I'll reckon that there are many more of us "out there" -- perhaps millions.
I predict that this is going to skewer the results come Election day...
