SOURCE:
HOTAIR.COMURL:
http://hotair.com/archives/2016/08/04/granite-state-crash-trump-trails-hillary-in-new-wbur-poll-by-15-points/by: Ed Morrissey
It’s been a tough couple of weeks for Donald Trump, and the new WBUR/MassINC poll of New Hampshire brings that home — almost literally. In the last iteration in this series in early May, Hillary Clinton had a two-point edge over Trump, 44/42. Since then, Hillary has picked up three points … while Trump has lost ten:
According to a new WBUR poll of New Hampshire voters, Hillary Clinton is enjoying a dramatic post-convention bump and now leads Donald Trump by 15 points. Our poll also shows Democrat Maggie Hassan with a big advantage in her bid to unseat Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte.
The last time we polled in New Hampshire, three months ago, the presidential contest was virtually tied. Our new poll (topline, crosstabs) of 609 likely New Hampshire voters, conducted July 29 through August 1, shows Clinton leading Trump 47 percent to 32 percent. When Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are omitted, Clinton’s 15 point lead swells to 17 points [51/34 – Ed].
MassINC’s president chalks this up to Democratic unity:
“After all the hand-wringing about whether Bernie Sanders supporters would end up supporting Hillary Clinton, she’s now getting 86 percent of the Democratic vote,” explained Steve Koczela, president of MassInc Polling, which conducted the WBUR survey. “Donald Trump, on the other hand, has slipped a bit among Republicans. He’s now getting a bit less than two-thirds of the Republican vote.”
That doesn’t explain the topline results very well, though. Democratic unity might explain going from 44% to 47%, but that could also just be a margin-of-error difference in the status quo. It doesn’t explain why Trump took a ten-point fall in three months. It’s not as if Bernie Bros were forming ten points of Trump’s support in New Hampshire in May.
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