SOURCE:
REUTERSURL:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-reutersipsos-idUSKCN10910T BY MAURICE TAMMAN
In a presidential campaign notable for its negativity, the option of “Neither” candidate appears to be an appealing alternative, at least to participants in the Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll.
Many voters on both sides have been ambivalent in their support for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump, complicating the task of the pollsters trying to track the race.
That sentiment may help explain an apparent skew that recently emerged in the Reuters/Ipsos poll results. Given the choice, a relatively large group of voters opted for “Neither/Other” candidate compared with other major polls, leading to an underreporting of several percentage points for one or other of the two major contenders at times in the race.
As a result, Reuters/Ipsos is amending the wording of the choice and eliminating the word “Neither,” bringing the option in line with other polls.
The amended Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll will be published later Friday, available at polling.reuters.com.
GAPS FOR TRUMP, CLINTON
From the beginning of June until the middle of July, the Reuters/Ipsos survey showed consistently lower support for Trump than other polls were capturing. At times, the Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Clinton with a lead over Trump as wide as about 12 percentage points among registered voters - five percentage points higher than Clinton’s lead in some other comparable polls.
To determine the cause, the pollsters examined what made the Reuters/Ipsos poll different. Their conclusion: By giving respondents the option of "Neither/Other," the survey appears to have captured greater numbers of ambivalent voters unwilling to commit to either candidate than other major polls, which only offer the choice of “Other.”
During the period analyzed, the historically high antipathy for both major candidates, paired with the option of selecting “Neither/Other,” meant the Reuters/Ipsos poll probably underreported Trump’s support before the Republican convention, perhaps by 3 to 5 percentage points.
More recently, the “Neither/Other” option appeared to lead to an underreporting of Clinton’s support in the run-up to the Democratic convention, said Cliff Young, pollster and president of Ipsos Public Affairs, which partners with Reuters on the poll. The pollsters estimated the Clinton shortfall at 2 to 4 percentage points.
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