My model shows Donald Trump has an 87 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton

[mystery-ak]

http://www.newsday.com/opinion/my-model-shows-donald-trump-has-an-87-percent-chance-of-beating-hillary-clinton-1.12102905

My model shows Donald Trump has an 87 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton

Updated July 28, 2016 9:08 AM
By Helmut Norpoth


THE BOTTOM LINE

    Donald Trump may be lucky to have picked an election in which change trumps experience.
    When voters demand change, they are willing to overlook many foibles of the change candidate.

To be sure, Donald Trump, is a long shot in betting markets to win in November. PredictIt, a popular legal wagering website, gives Hillary Clinton a 66 percent chance to win the presidency. She has consistently led Trump in that market for three months, as well as in the Iowa Electronic Markets. And Trump has trailed Clinton — with rare exceptions — in the poll averages by RealClearPolitics and The Huffington Post.

So how can a reasonable person predict that Trump will be the next president?

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[sinkspur]

This year, Trump has wound up as the stronger of the two presidential nominees. He won many more primaries than did Clinton. In fact, this was apparent as early as early March. Trump handily won the first two primaries, New Hampshire and South Carolina, while Clinton badly lost New Hampshire to Sen. Bernie Sanders before beating him in South Carolina.

Yet Hillary got many more votes than Trump in her primaries.  True, Trump was running against multiple candidates,  but he got a smaller PERCENTAGE of primary voters than any GOP nominee in recent times.

Other election models (with much more visibility) predict Clinton to win.

http://thehill.com/policy/finance/economy/prediction-hillary-clinton-easily-wins-beats-donald-trump-moodys-presidential-election-model

http://money.cnn.com/2016/05/26/news/economy/hillary-clinton-beat-donald-trump-moodys/