http://www.nationalreview.com/node/438189/print Trump Reshapes the Republican Party
Vice-presidential nominee Mike Pence bows to Trumpism.
By George Will — July 23, 2016
Crucial political decisions often concern which bridges to cross and which to burn. Donald Trump’s dilemma is that he burns some bridges by the way he crosses others. His campaign depends on a low-probability event, and on his ability to cause this event without provoking a more-than-equal and opposite reaction.
Extrapolating from recent elections, the turnout of non-college-educated whites this November would be expected to be 3 percent smaller as a portion of the total turnout than in 2012, and college-educated whites a 1 percent larger portion. The core of Trump’s support consists of non-college-educated whites, a cohort whose 2012 turnout was 60.4 percent. There is a low probability that Trump can motivate recent non-voters in this cohort to increase the turnout to 67 percent. There is, however, a high probability that the way he stimulates such people — still more insult oratory and fact-free “policy” expostulations — will cause other groups to recoil.
For the first time since at least 1952 — the first election for which ample data is available — Democrats probably will win a majority of voters with college degrees — a large and growing group (In 1952, 6.4 percent of Americans had completed college; today, about 33 percent have.) Consider, particularly, women with post-bachelor degrees. This fast-growing group — the percentages of women in law, medical, and business schools’ enrollments are 48.7, 46.9, and 36.2, respectively — is already approximately 65 percent Democratic. Can Trump ignite a spike in the non-college white vote without causing a more-than-commensurate increase in the Democratic propensity of the college-educated?
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