http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/287706-poll-gop-senators-leading-in-key-swing-statesJuly 14, 2016, 10:04 am
GOP senators leading in key swing states
By Harper Neidig
Three vulnerable Republican senators hold significant leads over their Democratic challengers, a new Quinnipiac University poll found.
In Florida, Sen. Marco Rubio leads Rep. Patrick Murphy, the leading Democratic candidate, 50 to 37 percent. Rubio also holds a 12-point lead over Rep. Alan Grayson, another Democrat vying for the seat, outpacing Grayson 50 to 38 percent.
Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) also holds a double-digit lead against his Democratic opponent, Katie McGinty, leading her 49 to 39 percent.
And in Ohio, Sen. Rob Portman is up 7 points over former Gov. Ted Strickland, 47 to 40 percent.
The numbers seem to push back against those who say that presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump is imperiling vulnerable down-ballot Republicans with his divisive rhetoric and campaign style.
"Many talking heads have suggested that with Donald Trump at the top of the GOP ticket, Republican Senate candidates might suffer," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll.
"But at least in these three key states, the Republican Senate candidates are running ahead of Trump and don't seem to be hurt by their shared party label."
In each of the Senate races, the GOP candidates lag among minority voters, though all perform significantly better than Trump.
Rubio and Toomey are also outpacing their party's presumptive nominee among female voters, with Portman being the only incumbent trailing in the demographic, falling behind Strickland, 46 to 41 percent.
When Quinnipiac released a survey on Wednesday showing Trump up by 3 points over Hillary Clinton in Florida after a double-digit surge in less than a month, some strategists publicly questioned the poll’s reliability.
“There is no reason for Trump to have an 11-point swing in Florida in a month. No reason whatsoever, so I would really consider the Quinnipiac poll an outlier and would be very hesitant to seriously analyze it,” GOP strategist Matt Mackowiak told The Hill on Wednesday.
