Author Topic: Swing-state stunner: Trump has edge in key states  (Read 354 times)

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Offline mystery-ak

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Swing-state stunner: Trump has edge in key states
« on: July 13, 2016, 01:19:26 pm »
http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/07/trump-has-edge-in-key-states-225442


Swing-state stunner: Trump has edge in key states

By Steven Shepard

07/13/16 06:00 AM EDT

Updated 07/13/16 08:52 AM EDT

Did Donald Trump really just surge past Hillary Clinton in two of the election's most important battlegrounds?

New swing-state polls released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University show Trump leading Clinton in Florida and Pennsylvania — and tied in the critical battleground state of Ohio. In three of the states that matter most in November, the surveys point to a race much closer than the national polls, which have Clinton pegged to a significant, mid-single-digit advantage over Trump, suggest.

The race is so close that it's within the margin of error in each of the three states. Trump leads by three points in Florida — the closest state in the 2012 election — 42 percent to 39 percent. In Ohio, the race is tied, 41 percent to 41 percent. And in Pennsylvania — which hasn't voted for a Republican presidential nominee since 1988 — Trump leads, 43 percent to 41 percent.

Clinton's campaign responded to the surveys by cautioning that while the swing states were always expected to be close, the urgent stakes of a possible Trump election remain high.

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Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Swing-state stunner: Trump has edge in key states
« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2016, 01:35:33 pm »
http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/clinton-morality-honesty-quinnipiac/2016/07/13/id/738376/


Newsmax
Quinnipiac Poll: Clinton Loses Ground on Morals, Honesty in Swing States
Wednesday, July 13, 2016 07:07 AM

By: Sandy Fitzgerald

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton had lost serious ground to her GOP rival, Donald Trump, in three major swing states following a hit to her ratings on moral standards and honesty, according to a new Quinnipiac University survey, but pollsters said there appears to be no "definite link" between the drop in honesty points and the U.S. Justice Department's decision not to prosecute her over her use of a private email server while secretary of state.

According to the new poll, released early Wednesday morning, Clinton and trump are in a dead heat in Ohio, while Trump leads her in Florida and Pennsylvania in numbers that show a definite drop since the last poll on June 21:

    Florida: Trump 42-39 percent, compared to 47-39 percent for Clinton on June 21;
    Ohio: Clinton 41 - Trump 41, compared to a 40-40 percent tie on June 21;
    Pennsylvania: Trump 43-41 percent, compared to Clinton, 42-41 percent on June 21.


The poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, because no candidate has won the presidency since 1960 without winning at least two of the three states.

When third-party candidates added in, Trump continued to hold a lead in all three states:

    Florida: Trump over Clinton 41-36 percent, with 7 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 4 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein;
    Ohio: Trump, 37-36 percent, with Johnson at 7 percent and Stein at 6 percent;
    Pennsylvania: Trump, 40 - 34 percent with 9 percent for Johnson and 3 percent for Stein.


"While there is no definite link between Clinton's drop in Florida and the U.S. Justice Department decision not to prosecute her for her handling of e-mails, she has lost ground to Trump on questions which measure moral standards and honesty," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

In state breakdowns:

Florida:

    Men: Trump, 50-29 percent;
    Women: Clinton 48 - 36 percent, compared to 52 - 34 percent in June;
    Independents: Trump, 44-35 percent; compared to 44 - 35 percent for Clinton in June;
    Republicans: Trump, 82 - 6 percent;
    Democrats, Clinton, 87 - 4 percent;
    White voters: Trump, 54 - 30 percent;
    Non-white voters, Clinton 56 - 21 percent.
    Favorability ratings: Trump, 38-54 percent; Clinton, 35-59 percent;


And in a comparison of other traits:

    53 - 37 percent, Clinton is better prepared to be president;
    42 - 42 percent tie on who has higher moral standards, wiping out a 47 - 36 percent Clinton lead on this measure June 21;
    52 - 35 percent that Clinton is more intelligent;
    50 - 37 percent that Trump is more honest and trustworthy, up from 43 - 40 percent.
    54 - 39 percent that Trump would be better creating jobs;
    49 - 45 percent that he would do better on immigration;
    57 - 35 percent that Trump would be more effective against ISIS.


In Ohio:

    Men: Trump 47 - 33 percent;
    Women: Clinton 48 - 35 percent.;
    White voters: Trump, 46 - 35 percent;
    Non-white voters: Clinton, 69 - 15 percent;
    Republicans: 77 - 6 percent, Trump;
    Independents: 43 - 31 percent, Trump;
    Democrats: Clinton, 90-4 percent.
    Favorability ratings: Clinton, 35 - 60 percent; Trump, 34 - 59 percent.


Comparing other traits, voters say:

    57 - 34 percent that Clinton is better prepared to be president;
    43-42 percent, Clinton has higher moral standards;
    52 - 35 percent that Clinton is more intelligent;
    47 - 37 percent that Trump is more honest and trustworthy.
    Better creating jobs, Trump, 54 - 39 percent;
    Immigration ,Clinton, 48-45;
    More effective against ISIS: Trump, 51-40 percent;
    Responding to an international crisis: Clinton, 50-43 percent.
     

Pennsylvania:

    Men: Trump;, 48-37 percent;
    Women: Clinton, 43 - 39 percent;
    White voters: Trump, 51-33 percent;
    Non-white voters: Clinton, 72-12 percent;
    Republicans, Trump, 82-5 percent;
    Democrats: Clinton, 82-9 percent;
    Independent voters: Trump, 39-36 percent.
    Favorability ratings: Clinton, 31-65 percent; Trump, 38-57 percent.


In other traits:

    56 - 36 percent, Clinton is better prepared to be president;
    43-41 percent, Clinton has higher moral standards;
    51 - 37 percent, Clinton is more intelligent;
    49 - 34 percent, Trump is more honest and trustworthy;
    Better creating jobs, Trump, 54-39 percent;
    Immigration, Trump, 49-47 percent;
    More effective against ISIS, Trump, 52 - 40 percent;
    Responding to an international crisis, Clinton, 52 - 43 percent.


For the poll,conducted between June 30-July 11, Quinnipiac surveyed 1,015 Florida voters with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points; 955 Ohio voters with a margin of error of 3.2 points; 982 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

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Offline Axel

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Re: Swing-state stunner: Trump has edge in key states
« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2016, 02:05:48 pm »
What great news to wake up to this morning!
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Offline WAC

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Re: Swing-state stunner: Trump has edge in key states
« Reply #3 on: July 13, 2016, 02:17:06 pm »
Trump continues to give Hillary more than a run for her money.......

Watch Manford make her "spend" lots of her money early on by creating environments she has to defend herself............it's a great play in elections people don't often notice.....

Offline kevindavis007

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Re: Swing-state stunner: Trump has edge in key states
« Reply #4 on: July 13, 2016, 04:39:37 pm »
Guess Trump doesn't need my vote then. Frack Trump
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Re: Swing-state stunner: Trump has edge in key states
« Reply #5 on: July 13, 2016, 04:56:12 pm »
@WAC

Am I supposed to be glad that Fascism might prevail over Marxism?

How about neither, with a decent GOP candidate who takes commanding lead over Hillary?
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Offline WAC

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Re: Swing-state stunner: Trump has edge in key states
« Reply #6 on: July 13, 2016, 11:27:24 pm »
@WAC
Am I supposed to be glad that Fascism might prevail over Marxism?
How about neither, with a decent GOP candidate who takes commanding lead over Hillary?

 Well....looking at it from your viewpoint it looks like neither is the only way you can go...and since there is no GOP candidate as you hoped I guess you're kind of stuck....must be a bummer. I wouldn't be happy in your shoes either. Sorry about that......

Offline WAC

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Re: Swing-state stunner: Trump has edge in key states
« Reply #7 on: July 13, 2016, 11:36:26 pm »
Guess Trump doesn't need my vote then. Frack Trump

Well you already stated if Jesus was running with him you still wouldn't vote for him...so that pretty much does knock you out of the equation I would think....if Jesus couldn't get you to vote...then I suspect there  isn't anything else that would move you.

However.....


Offline skeeter

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Re: Swing-state stunner: Trump has edge in key states
« Reply #8 on: July 13, 2016, 11:46:16 pm »
http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/07/trump-has-edge-in-key-states-225442


Swing-state stunner: Trump has edge in key states

By Steven Shepard

07/13/16 06:00 AM EDT

Updated 07/13/16 08:52 AM EDT

Did Donald Trump really just surge past Hillary Clinton in two of the election's most important battlegrounds?

New swing-state polls released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University show Trump leading Clinton in Florida and Pennsylvania — and tied in the critical battleground state of Ohio. In three of the states that matter most in November, the surveys point to a race much closer than the national polls, which have Clinton pegged to a significant, mid-single-digit advantage over Trump, suggest.

The race is so close that it's within the margin of error in each of the three states. Trump leads by three points in Florida — the closest state in the 2012 election — 42 percent to 39 percent. In Ohio, the race is tied, 41 percent to 41 percent. And in Pennsylvania — which hasn't voted for a Republican presidential nominee since 1988 — Trump leads, 43 percent to 41 percent.

Clinton's campaign responded to the surveys by cautioning that while the swing states were always expected to be close, the urgent stakes of a possible Trump election remain high.

more

I guess more people were listening to the Comey report than I expected.

It just may be that Hillary is SO bad that Trump slips in. I still think he's quite a longshot.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2016, 02:02:41 am by skeeter »

Offline jmyrlefuller

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Re: Swing-state stunner: Trump has edge in key states
« Reply #9 on: July 14, 2016, 12:08:30 am »
I guess more people were listening to the Comey report than I expected.

It just may be that Hillary is SO bad that Trump slips in. I still think he's quiet a longshot.
Yeah, that's Trump's best shot of making it to the Presidency: if Hillary is so reviled that people will do anything they can to stop her by coalescing around him. It's really something that would stroke his ego. Even his caucus members here have tried desperately to take this tack.

Of course, if there were a way to stop both of them, I'm sure there would be a sizable portion of the population who would support that, because really, both of them are pretty widely reviled.

With all that being said—I am immediately suspicious of any poll that shows any Republican winning Pennsylvania in a Presidential election.
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Offline cato potatoe

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Re: Swing-state stunner: Trump has edge in key states
« Reply #10 on: July 14, 2016, 03:24:55 am »
The thing about state polling ... it's a long shot for a candidate to lose the popular vote by more than 2 points and still collect 270 electoral votes.  Our population is transient these days.  A popular vote disparity would need to be overcome by narrow Trump victories in a majority of states.  So as of today it's possible, I guess, if Trump runs the table in every state where he is losing by a point or three.  Possible, but very unlikely.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2016, 03:27:34 am by cato potatoe »