The Biggest Danger for Donald Trump: FLORIDA

[SirLinksALot]

SOURCE: NEW YORK TIMES

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/07/upshot/the-biggest-danger-for-donald-trump-florida.html?_r=0

by: Nate Cohn


If demographics are destiny, Trump's political fate could very well be sealed in Florida.

The big demographic threat to the Republican Party isn’t a “blue” Texas or Arizona or Georgia, but the possibility that Florida will follow Nevada and New Mexico to the left. It’s extremely hard for a Republican to win the presidency without Florida’s 29 electoral votes.

The polls suggest that Hillary Clinton might capitalize on huge demographic shifts to an extent that Barack Obama never did. She might even lead by the same margin in Florida that she does nationally, about five percentage points — even though the state has been more Republican than the country in every presidential election since 1976.

To understand why Florida could shift so abruptly, consider this: The demographic changes in Florida over the last decade rival or even exceed those in states like Nevada or Virginia, but the Democrats haven’t gained nearly as much as they have in those states. When Al Gore and George W. Bush fought to an effective tie in the state 16 years ago, 78 percent of registered voters were non-Hispanic whites. When Barack Obama edged Mitt Romney in 2012 by less than a point, just 66.5 percent of registered voters were.

Other changes have also helped Democrats. Back in 2000, the state’s Hispanic voters, disproportionately Cuban-Americans, leaned Republican. The state’s Hispanic vote now clearly leans Democratic. The newest generation of Cuban voters is far more Democratic than earlier generations, who came of age in the Cold War.

At the same time, growing numbers of non-Cuban Hispanics, particularly those from Puerto Rico, have pushed the state’s Hispanic vote further to the left.

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[Vulcan]

Not everyone's buying what the jackass is selling.

[geronl]

The big demographic threat to the Republican Party isn’t a “blue” Texas or Arizona or Georgia, but the possibility that Florida will follow Nevada and New Mexico to the left.

Trump hopes they move left and votes for him. If they don't move to the left, they'll vote third party or write-in.

[NavyCanDo]

Trump hopes they move left and votes for him. If they don't move to the left, they'll vote third party or write-in.

That's why he would rather cater to the Sanders voters than to the hold-outs in his own party, namely us.  FOX cut him off when he was started going off on NeverTrumps, did you notice?

[Fantom]

Ah... but remember trump is going to put Kali in play...... 

Even though Scam Wowo can't win his home State.

[RoosGirl]

Given all the NY, NJ creeps that live here now this is not a surprise.  Just look at 2008 & 2012 elections.

[ScottinVA]

This election will be finished and Hillary sitting at 270+ electoral votes before most of the MDT states are even called.  It'll be over early.

Here's how it'll likely look by midnight on election night..

http://www.270towin.com/maps/MQDEK

[Mechanicos]

NYT has no motivation to lie here.

[SirLinksALot]

NYT has no motivation to lie here.

Please refute the author's arguments instead of the usual argument that if it is the ___________ (fill in the blanks with your favorite paper/magazine to bash ) publishing it, it is by definition wrong.

[Just_Victor]

Please refute the author's arguments instead of the usual argument that if it is the ___________ (fill in the blanks with your favorite paper/magazine to bash ) publishing it, it is by definition wrong.

When defending Trump, "attack the messenger," is about the best that can be done.

[Hoodat]

I have been saying for months that Trump will choose Rick Scott to be his VP.

[cato potatoe]

We do business with many Puerto Ricans in Florida that have always claimed to be Republicans.  They fear and hate Trump.  If what they are telling me is true, some are staying home but most say they are voting for Hillary.

The Vietnamese say the same.

I can count on one hand the people I know that claim to be Trump supporters.  You can guess what class they fall in. 

Trump is going to lose in a landslide.

The driving factor behind the Trumpster delusion is their social apartheid.  They refuse to make acquaintances from different backgrounds, and so they are unaware of what most people think.  If they remain in the party, this is going to make it very difficult for us to nominate viable candidates in the future.

[Mechanicos]

Please refute the author's arguments instead of the usual argument that if it is the ___________ (fill in the blanks with your favorite paper/magazine to bash ) publishing it, it is by definition wrong.

The last post you made to me on another thread showed that your brain is closed to any discussion on the issue of Bogus polls despite having been shown more then enough evidence of the games they play. So tell me -since you will not listen and ignore facts/evidence why should I tilt at this Windmill? The fact its NYT alone gives the presumption of dishonesty.

[SirLinksALot]

The last post you made to me on another thread showed that your brain is closed to any discussion on the issue of Bogus polls

The last post I gave to you showed you that the polls cannot simply be dismissed as inaccurate pointblank because past data show that they DO CUMULATIVELY predict voter sentiment.

You have not refuted that argument. All you do ( as in this particular post ) is use adjectives like BOGUS without showing how it applies.

despite having been shown more then enough evidence of the games they play. So tell me -since you will not listen and ignore facts/evidence why should I tilt at this Windmill? The fact its NYT alone gives the presumption of dishonesty.

1) You have not shown that ALL ( some do maybe but not all ) polls taken cumulatively are un-serious.

2) I asked you to refute the Washington Post regarding Trump's charity donations and I was willing to hear your side of the story. I'm still waiting.

3) Here's another sweeping statement you make -- not distinguishing between ALL and SOME.

Yes, some reporters and columnists are dishonest, but ALL?

So, if you feel that Nate Cohn is being dishonest in his analysis, why not tell us in what way?

As usual, we're willing to listen.

[RoosGirl]

I have been saying for months that Trump will choose Rick Scott to be his VP.

He's been a decent governor for Florida.  I'm still ticked about him signing to allow illegals to get in-state college tuition rates.  But, I thought Scott already said no thanks?

[Wingnut]

I live in LA part of FL. By all rights this place should be a stronghold of support for a conservative GOP candidate.  Since Trump is neither a conservative  nor a Republican it reflects in his lake of support in the area.

[HonestJohn]

NYT has no motivation to lie here.

Mechanicos has no reason to lie here.