SOURCE:
HOTAIR.COMURL:
http://hotair.com/archives/2016/07/05/nbc-poll-three-different-republicans-fare-better-against-hillary-than-trump-does/by: AllahPundit
Is it worth analyzing polls that are now destined to change after what Jim Comey said this morning? Probably not. But screw it. Let’s do it anyway!
Does anyone believe these numbers? Specifically, does anyone believe that these are the numbers we’d see if Trump were unceremoniously dumped in Cleveland and Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, or John Kasich was nominated instead? NBC asked people who they’d vote for in a match-up between each of them and Hillary Clinton but I think most probably interpreted the question as who they’d vote for in a match-up between each of them and Hillary if each had won the Republican primary fair and square.
The fact that the numbers for these alternative nominees are as high as they are even in that scenario is noteworthy because it suggests that there aren’t as many hardcore Trump fans as you might think who would have boycotted the general election had Trump lost. But the fact remains that that’s not the world we’re in now.
They didn’t win the primary fair and square. Trump did. If you want to test how other Republicans would do against Clinton, you’re duty bound, I think, to emphasize in your phrasing of the question the “Dump Trump” mechanism by which it would happen; after all, there’s no way around the fact that a convention coup would alienate some Republican voters by ousting Trump in a way some would view as undemocratic and illicit. (Especially with Trump complaining loudly and often afterward about how rigged the Republican system is.) That’s a number that would be useful to know — how many GOPers who might otherwise vote for a Romney or a Ryan or a Kasich would stay home on principle to protest Trump being overthrown overboard in Cleveland? NBC didn’t ask that, though.
This week’s poll asked how Clinton would do against former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, current House Speaker Paul Ryan and former presidential hopeful John Kasich. In the case of a Romney and Clinton match-up, voters are evenly split [at 45 percent each]. Romney, an outspoken Trump dissenter, has publically denounced the GOP’s nominee in favor of a more presidential candidate…
In a Clinton match-up against Ryan, the race is close, but Clinton is slightly behind. Though the House speaker has repeatedly said he has no interest in a White House bid, if the election were today and he were on the Republican ticket, Ryan would barely edge out the presumptive Democratic nominee by 2 points—47 percent to 45 percent…
Perhaps most surprising are the results of a Clinton vs. Kasich November match-up. Though the Ohio governor was only able to secure enough support during the primaries to win his home state of Ohio, he leads Clinton by 8 points [50/42]—the same margin as Clinton’s lead over Trump last week.
Kasich fares better than Romney or Ryan because he wins more Democrats and more independents — although Romney and Ryan also win indies against Clinton with 52 percent each. As for Trump, he trails 48/43, a few points better than last week (possibly due to his speech on protectionism?) but still weaker than the other three Republican candidates.
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