Dukakis Lead Widens, According to New Poll (Published: July 26, 19880

[truth_seeker]

Dukakis Lead Widens, According to New Poll

Published: July 26, 1988

In the aftermath of the Democratic National Convention, the party's nominee, Michael S. Dukakis, has expanded his lead among registered voters over Vice President Bush, the probable Republican nominee, according to a Gallup Poll.

This was among the findings of a national public opinion poll of 948 registered voters conducted late last week for Newsweek magazine by the Gallup Organization. The telephone interviews took place on July 21, which was the last night of the convention, and on the night after that.

Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred to see Mr. Bush win. The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

This represented a shift in Mr. Dukakis's lead from the 47 percent to 41 percent advantage he held in the last pre-convention Gallup Poll, taken by telephone July 8-10. In that poll, 1,001 registered voters were interviewed.

SNIP

http://www.nytimes.com/1988/07/26/us/dukakis-lead-widens-according-to-new-poll.html

[jmyrlefuller]

In the aftermath of the Democratic National Convention

So this is about a post-convention bounce, which is always fleeting anyway.

Oh, by the way, as the Republican party was the incumbent, their convention came later, which brought its own post-convention bounce, hence how Bush was able to rally. This year, with the Democrats the incumbent party, they go last.

Seeking the truth? There it is.

[cato potatoe]

Ever notice how people have stopped making the 1980 comparison?  That's because Reagan took the lead in the latter part of May.

[truth_seeker]

Ever notice how people have stopped making the 1980 comparison?  That's because Reagan took the lead in the latter part of May.

False

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111451/late-upsets-rare-happened.aspx

Carter 47 Reagan 39 (RV) Oct 1980

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110548/gallup-presidential-election-trial-heat-trends.aspx

Carter 40 Reagan 32 in May 1980 (RV).

[cato potatoe]

This is the polling average, similar to RCP.  Gallup was a pro-Carter outlier.  The other polls showed a competitive race or "leans Reagan" going into the final weekend.

1988: Bush took the lead right after the convention.  So, Trump has a few more weeks before he is in no mans land.

[LMAO]

I wouldn't dismiss polls outright. We have a couple on this forum that dismiss all polls that show Trump behind as propaganda. What are they going to say if, at some point, the polls move in Trump's direction?

However, citing polls in July as proof positive of what will happen in Nov is also just as foolish. Having said that, there are differences between 1980 and 1988 and 2016