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Author Topic: Handicapping the Odds of a Clinton Landslide  (Read 3092 times)

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Offline thatcher

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Handicapping the Odds of a Clinton Landslide
« on: June 28, 2016, 03:04:53 pm »
Handicapping the Odds of a Clinton Landslide

Based on evidence from the last three decades, polarization in American politics has eliminated landslide presidential victories.

But could Donald J. Trump trigger one again?

His extraordinary White House bid has raised the question. For Hillary Clinton, now leading solidly in the polls, it looms over strategic choices ranging from selection of a running mate to how she contrasts herself with the presumptive Republican nominee.

In theory, Mr. Trump’s message of change, iconoclastic background and stances on issues from taxes to trade create the possibility of appealing broadly across a divided electorate.

In practice, his tempestuous persona, harsh rhetoric and thin preparation have repelled important segments of his own Republican Party as well as Democratic constituencies.

In a Washington Post/ABC News poll last week, nearly one-third of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, and two-thirds of voters over all, characterized Mr. Trump as unqualified.

Mrs. Clinton led by 12 percentage points, larger than any Election Day margin in the past seven presidential contests. In the New York Times polling average, she leads Mr. Trump, 45 percent to 39 percent.

For more than three decades after World War II, lopsided presidential victories occurred regularly. In the 1950s, Dwight Eisenhower twice reached 55 percent or more of the popular vote.

Lyndon Johnson, in 1964, and Richard Nixon, in 1972, topped 60 percent. Ronald Reagan won in 1984 with 59 percent, matching Mr. Nixon by carrying 49 states while harvesting a record 525 electoral votes.

Election outcomes have narrowed since. Information Age realignment hardened party lines, making Republicans and Democrats more ideologically distinct and reducing the ability of nominees to lure crossover votes.

No one since Mr. Reagan has reached 54 percent. No one since George H. W. Bush in 1988 has reached 400 electoral votes.


Read more:  http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/29/us/politics/handicapping-the-odds-of-a-clinton-landslide.html?_r=1
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Offline thatcher

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Re: Handicapping the Odds of a Clinton Landslide
« Reply #1 on: June 28, 2016, 03:06:00 pm »
Quote

‏@JohnJHarwood

lowest post-WWII vote for major-party nominee: 37% (McGovern '72/GHWBush '92). recent Trump polling range: 34%-41%

7:44 AM - 28 Jun 2016

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Offline Chieftain

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Re: Handicapping the Odds of a Clinton Landslide
« Reply #2 on: June 28, 2016, 03:22:50 pm »
Still waiting for the results of the FBI Primary.

 :smokin:
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Offline ScottinVA

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Re: Handicapping the Odds of a Clinton Landslide
« Reply #3 on: June 28, 2016, 04:57:45 pm »
Quote from: Chieftain on June 28, 2016, 03:22:50 pm
Still waiting for the results of the FBI Primary.

 :smokin:

Oh... right.   :silly: :silly:
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Offline MACVSOG68

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Re: Handicapping the Odds of a Clinton Landslide
« Reply #4 on: June 28, 2016, 05:10:17 pm »
Quote from: Chieftain on June 28, 2016, 03:22:50 pm
Still waiting for the results of the FBI Primary.

 :smokin:

Unfortunately for Trump, that may be his only hope, and even then the timing would be the paramount issue.
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Offline austingirl

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Re: Handicapping the Odds of a Clinton Landslide
« Reply #5 on: June 28, 2016, 05:16:02 pm »
Quote from: thatcher on June 28, 2016, 03:06:00 pm


John Harwood is one of the worst shills in politics. He called it a "vote" when it is a poll months before the election.  **nononono*
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Offline ScottinVA

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Re: Handicapping the Odds of a Clinton Landslide
« Reply #6 on: June 28, 2016, 05:24:10 pm »
IMO, how things will shake out by the end of election night.  Texas (yes, Texas) and Georgia will be too close to call.  It will not be a pretty sight for Trump and his followers.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/MQDEK
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Offline ScottinVA

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Re: Handicapping the Odds of a Clinton Landslide
« Reply #7 on: June 28, 2016, 05:27:41 pm »
Quote from: MACVSOG68 on June 28, 2016, 05:10:17 pm
Unfortunately for Trump, that may be his only hope, and even then the timing would be the paramount issue.

If that is truly Trump's only hope, this is over.  There will be no indictment.
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Offline RedHead

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Re: Handicapping the Odds of a Clinton Landslide
« Reply #8 on: June 28, 2016, 05:30:02 pm »
Define "landslide".  I can see her getting the kind of numbers Obama got in 2008, but if we're talking LBJ or Reagan numbers then I don't see it.
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Offline LMAO

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Re: Handicapping the Odds of a Clinton Landslide
« Reply #9 on: June 28, 2016, 05:31:47 pm »
Quote from: RedHead on June 28, 2016, 05:30:02 pm
Define "landslide".  I can see her getting the kind of numbers Obama got in 2008, but if we're talking LBJ or Reagan numbers then I don't see it.

She would have to be nationally loved to get those type of landslides and she's not. Voters usually don't go to the polls to vote against someone.

No landslide either way
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Offline MACVSOG68

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Re: Handicapping the Odds of a Clinton Landslide
« Reply #10 on: June 28, 2016, 05:34:52 pm »
Quote from: ScottinVA on June 28, 2016, 05:27:41 pm
If that is truly Trump's only hope, this is over.  There will be no indictment.

Probably true, given that charges and indictment will only result after the report of investigation is complete.  I can see it sealed by DOJ while it is being "studied". 
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Offline MACVSOG68

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Re: Handicapping the Odds of a Clinton Landslide
« Reply #11 on: June 28, 2016, 05:50:13 pm »
Quote from: LMAO on June 28, 2016, 05:31:47 pm
She would have to be nationally loved to get those type of landslides and she's not. Voters usually don't go to the polls to vote against someone.

No landslide either way

The only problem I see with that is that yes, both candidates are seen pretty negatively by the general public.  The Democrats have already indicated a coming together... Kumbaya, so to speak; the GOP is horribly split with no indication the convention will change that.  Hillary's campaign won't even have to do research on Trump.  The anti-Trump movement will do it for her.  Heck, only a third here say they would vote for Trump, and some would even vote for Hillary.  And given Trump's personality I don't see him changing personas during or after the convention to bring anyone together on the GOP side. 
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Offline Eowyn

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Re: Handicapping the Odds of a Clinton Landslide
« Reply #12 on: June 28, 2016, 05:59:08 pm »
Even though I absolutely despise Trump, I'll be voting for him.  Hillary Clinton is evil, and there is no way I'll sit by and not do what I can to prevent her ever setting foot in the Oval Office.  That means voting for the #NeverHillary candidate.  That means voting for Trump.  Besides, it'll be fun watching the liberal media's heads explode if their girl Hillary is defeated by their her trojan horse candidate.
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Offline sinkspur

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Re: Handicapping the Odds of a Clinton Landslide
« Reply #13 on: June 28, 2016, 06:05:14 pm »
What do anti-Trumps think of Reince spending money on stuff like this?

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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Handicapping the Odds of a Clinton Landslide
« Reply #14 on: June 28, 2016, 06:14:11 pm »
Quote from: Chieftain on June 28, 2016, 03:22:50 pm
Still waiting for the results of the FBI Primary.

 :smokin:

Speaking of handicapping ......   Odds of an Obama AG indicting Hitlerly?    1 in 100.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2016, 06:14:39 pm by catfish1957 »
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Re: Handicapping the Odds of a Clinton Landslide
« Reply #15 on: June 28, 2016, 06:55:23 pm »
Trump will probably do worse than McCain or Dole.
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Offline Cyber Liberty

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Re: Handicapping the Odds of a Clinton Landslide
« Reply #16 on: June 28, 2016, 07:36:13 pm »
Quote from: MACVSOG68 on June 28, 2016, 05:34:52 pm
Probably true, given that charges and indictment will only result after the report of investigation is complete.  I can see it sealed by DOJ while it is being "studied".

That's my opinion as well.  Obama got all the excuses he needed the day the first vote was cast in the Dem Primaries.  "Don't want this to affect the election."
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Offline Cyber Liberty

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Re: Handicapping the Odds of a Clinton Landslide
« Reply #17 on: June 28, 2016, 07:38:46 pm »
Quote from: geronl on June 28, 2016, 06:55:23 pm
Trump will probably do worse than McCain or Dole.

Considering how poor a predictor polls have become, a dart thrown blindfolded at a wall has as much chance of being accurate as either your or my guess.  I am sorry, but I scoff at people from either side who assure me they know what the results will be in November.  No offense....

Edited to add:  I would not bet against your prediction in this quote.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2016, 07:39:21 pm by Cyber Liberty »
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Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: Handicapping the Odds of a Clinton Landslide
« Reply #18 on: June 28, 2016, 07:40:56 pm »
I don't think polarization in politics is the problem, so much as the convergent political evolution of the Parties.

Once again, I am looking for a clear choice, and once again, the degrees of separation between the candidates have decreased, not increased. It isn't because the Liberals have become more Conservative. Rather, it is because the GOP has systematically abandoned its moral and constitutional Principles, shedding voters who will vote along those lines with the assumption they will have no choice but to vote against even more liberal policy. The flaw in that thinking is that we are down to selecting which flavor of crap goes in the sandwich.

Not much of a choice, and certainly not enough to get my vote.

Reagan represented a clear and contrasting choice, politically. The current candidates do not. But those pushing this entire slide to the Left will blame the Right rather than their own flawed policy and failure to meaningfully oppose the Left when they foist this disaster on the GOP and America.
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Offline MajorClay

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Re: Handicapping the Odds of a Clinton Landslide
« Reply #19 on: June 28, 2016, 10:45:40 pm »
Quote from: ScottinVA on June 28, 2016, 05:24:10 pm
IMO, how things will shake out by the end of election night.  Texas (yes, Texas) and Georgia will be too close to call.  It will not be a pretty sight for Trump and his followers.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/MQDEK

Ouch!
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Offline Eowyn

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Re: Handicapping the Odds of a Clinton Landslide
« Reply #20 on: June 29, 2016, 02:14:31 am »
Quote from: cuky on June 28, 2016, 11:16:30 pm
Yes Hillary is evil, but trump is the epitome of what I have always despised and is equally evil and probably more dangerous for the future of our country.

#nevertrump but hoping there will be another option in the fall than voting for none of the above.

Trump lacks a moral compass and is a phony, but I would not call him evil.  Hillary is evil.  Benghazi is reason enough for me to vote for Trump over Hillary.  Trump is a bad person, but he doesn't have American blood on his hands.  He didn't look grieving families in the eyes and lie to to them with false sympathy.  That woman is cold as ice.  She is totally evil.  That's why I will bE voting for Trump even though I can't stand the sight of him.
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Re: Handicapping the Odds of a Clinton Landslide
« Reply #21 on: June 29, 2016, 02:16:22 am »
This why Trump is in this race:  to throw it to Clinton.
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Offline Chieftain

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Re: Handicapping the Odds of a Clinton Landslide
« Reply #22 on: June 29, 2016, 02:24:59 am »
Quote from: catfish1957 on June 28, 2016, 06:14:11 pm
Speaking of handicapping ......   Odds of an Obama AG indicting Hitlerly?    1 in 100.

The odds FBI Director strong-armed Attorney General Loretta Lynch into convening a secret Grand Jury??  I think Comey's way smarter than Obama or the Hildebeest, and knows how to get his way when he needs to.

We shall see.  I give it 50/50 Comey announces multiple unsealed indictments against them all.

 :beer:
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Offline Luis Gonzalez

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Re: Handicapping the Odds of a Clinton Landslide
« Reply #23 on: June 29, 2016, 04:34:02 am »
Quote from: cuky on June 29, 2016, 02:41:57 am
This guy can look anyone in the eye and tell any lie that he thinks benefits himself....sounds just like Hillary.

From The Art of the Deal:


"The final key to the way I promote is bravado. I play to people's fantasies. People may not always think big themselves, but they can still get very excited by those who do. That's why a little hyperbole never hurts. People want to believe something is the biggest and the greatest and the most spectacular.

I call it truthful hyperbole. It's an innocent form of exaggeration — and a very effective form of promotion.+
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Offline DB

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Re: Handicapping the Odds of a Clinton Landslide
« Reply #24 on: June 29, 2016, 05:49:11 am »
Quote from: Eowyn on June 29, 2016, 02:14:31 am
Trump lacks a moral compass and is a phony, but I would not call him evil.  Hillary is evil.  Benghazi is reason enough for me to vote for Trump over Hillary.  Trump is a bad person, but he doesn't have American blood on his hands.  He didn't look grieving families in the eyes and lie to to them with false sympathy.  That woman is cold as ice.  She is totally evil.  That's why I will bE voting for Trump even though I can't stand the sight of him.

Evil is the father of lies. It is leading people astray. Trump took other worthy people out of the primary through lies. Lies to the basic character/morality of his opponents. He has shown no remorse for what he did. The ends justify the means for him. Trump lies to his supporters to get their vote with no actual intention of doing the things he says as made obvious by all the back peddling when pressed. Trump says he's never asked for forgiveness from God yet he says he's a "Christian". His modus operandi is deception even on the most serious of things.

As far as I'm concerned, the above fits the definition of evil.
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