After Brexit: U.K. Breakup Back in Play as Scotland Weighs New Independence Vote

[SirLinksALot]

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG

URL: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-24/u-k-breakup-back-in-play-as-scots-weighs-new-independence-vote

by: Rodney Jefferson


The mantra from the U.K. campaign to leave the European Union was that the country can survive perfectly well on its own. The question now after its triumph in the Brexit vote is whether the U.K. can survive at all.

The Scottish National Party government said that the majority U.K. decision to leave the EU justified another vote on Scots independence. Results of Thursday’s EU referendum showed Scotland voted to remain in the 28-member bloc, while England and Wales opted to leave, setting up another showdown between London and Edinburgh. In Belfast, Irish republicans Sinn Fein called for a referendum on Irish reunification.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said a second referendum on independence is “on the table” less than two years since the last one. The SNP leader said she wanted to make it clear to European leaders that Scotland has voted to stay.

“Scotland faces the prospect of being taken out of the EU against our will. I regard that as democratically unacceptable,” she said. “There’s no doubt that yesterday’s result represents a significant and material change in the circumstances in which Scotland voted against independence in 2014.”

EXCERPT ONLY, CLICK ABOVE LINK FOR THE REST

[SirLinksALot]

The Scots Vote to Leave the UK Once Again? NOT A CHANCE. Just look at the result of the Brexit referendum below. It was the Scots who opted to Remain. Let's face it, the Scots WANT power to be centralized, be it in Brussels or in London. It could be even possible that they'd vote to leave the UK and then vote to JOIN the EU.

[Oceander]

I doubt very seriously this will come to fruition. Scotland is to the UK what Quebec is to Canada: a perpetual thorn in the side that never quite has the courage of its own supposed convictions.  in order to get back into the EU a newly independent Scotland would have to apply for admission to the EU, which would require it to meet a number of conditions that would require it to cut down on its debt and its spending.  I highly doubt the Germans are going to agree to bring in another little basket case country now that they've been coerced into bailing out Greece. 

I give low odds on this happening; there may be a vote, but I don't see it succeeding. 

[truth_seeker]

Based solely on "nationalism" Scotland would leave the UK in a heartbeat. But they are an economic basket case, sucking on the English teat, so to speak.

Hence they chickened out last time, and did not exit the UK.

Now they will very probably vote to exit the UK, in hopes of catching hold of the EU teat.

[truth_seeker]

From inception, the European Common Market was warned against admitting poor countries. But they have nevertheless done  so.

Case in point, Spain, Portugal, Greece, admitted in 1981. From there it was down hill.

Overall the EU has grown from 6 founding countries (1957), to 28 at present.  They may soon admit Turkey.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

in order to get back into the EU a newly independent Scotland would have to apply for admission to the EU, which would require it to meet a number of conditions that would require it to cut down on its debt and its spending.  I highly doubt the Germans are going to agree to bring in another little basket case country now that they've been coerced into bailing out Greece.

I recall reading some stuff a couple of years ago about how difficult it would be a for an independent Scotland to gain admission to the EU.  I think they'll stay with the UK if the prospect is to be completely on its own, outside both the UK and the EU.  There's also the chance that Brexit may be repeated by some of the other countries of Northern Europe, which will make EU membership more problematic as wealthier countries exit.

[geronl]

From inception, the European Common Market was warned against admitting poor countries. But they have nevertheless done  so.

A "European Common Market" made some sense, but a political union makes no real sense.

[SirLinksALot]

There's also the chance that Brexit may be repeated by some of the other countries of Northern Europe, which will make EU membership more problematic as wealthier countries exit.

I was playing word games just last night and here's what I'd like to see ---

After Brexit, I'd like to see ...

ITALEAVE
CZECHOUT
FINISH
SLOVAKOUT
BYEGIUM
LUXEMBYE
PORTUGONE
DONEMARK
OUSTRIA
POLEND

the only one left in the EU will be Remainia   

[Mechanicos]

I doubt very seriously this will come to fruition. Scotland is to the UK what Quebec is to Canada: a perpetual thorn in the side that never quite has the courage of its own supposed convictions.  in order to get back into the EU a newly independent Scotland would have to apply for admission to the EU, which would require it to meet a number of conditions that would require it to cut down on its debt and its spending.  I highly doubt the Germans are going to agree to bring in another little basket case country now that they've been coerced into bailing out Greece. 

I give low odds on this happening; there may be a vote, but I don't see it succeeding.

I agree with your analysis here. What is the wild card however is what will happen to their Economy now with Brexit happening?

[truth_seeker]

A "European Common Market" made some sense, but a political union makes no real sense.

Correct. It is a long way from six nations in 1957, dropping trade tariffs, and 28 nations in 2016 planning to admit Turkey.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

I was playing word games just last night and here's what I'd like to see ---

After Brexit, I'd like to see ...

ITALEAVE
CZECHOUT
FINISH
SLOVAKOUT
BYEGIUM
LUXEMBYE
PORTUGONE
DONEMARK
OUSTRIA
POLEND

the only one left in the EU will be Remainia   

You have absolutely no shame.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

I agree with your analysis here. What is the wild card however is what will happen to their Economy now with Brexit happening?

Well, it's kind of a Catch-22.  If the Scottish economy gets stronger, then leaving the UK would be a major risk.  And if it gets worse, they'd never qualify for EU admission.

[geronl]

the only one left in the EU will be Remainia   

lol

[Sighlass]

Please Scotland do leave, so England can be done with your Socialist butt. You can start supporting yourself for once.

[truth_seeker]

Please Scotland do leave, so England can be done with your Socialist butt. You can start supporting yourself for once.

Thanks for the info:

"If Scotland were independent or fiscally autonomous, it would face a budget deficit this year of around 10% of GDP,..."

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21664219-year-after-independence-referendum-scotlands-unexpectedly-strong-economic-performance

The EU makes sense to Scotland, for they need teats to feed from. EU, UK, both?  Anybody?

[EC]

On the bright side, if Scotland leaves we can round up and deport the 6,000 or so drunk and druggie Scots living rough on the streets in London. 

Leaving is going to leave a huge hole in the naval defenses though - and not only with the RN having to relocate southwards. The USN will have a VERY hard time renegotiating a lease on Holy Loch, as the subs based out of there are nuclear (and nuclear armed) and the Scottish Nationalists are 100% anti nukes.

[sinkspur]

Meanwhile, everyone, I'm sure, has been waiting on Sarah Palin's perspective which is totally idiotic, as usual.

[HonestJohn]

If Scotland can stay in the EU, there will be more foreign investment into the country as it would replace England as a 'stepping stone' into the EU proper. 

In other words, investors currently use England (ie: London) as a hub for trade with the EU.  As England has decided to cut themselves off from that, foreign investors will have to look elsewhere.  Scotland would be the closest replacement.

[sinkspur]

If Scotland can stay in the EU, there will be more foreign investment into the country as it would replace England as a 'stepping stone' into the EU proper. 

In other words, investors currently use England (ie: London) as a hub for trade with the EU.  As England has decided to cut themselves off from that, foreign investors will have to look elsewhere.  Scotland would be the closest replacement.

The risk of a major recession in the entire UK has risen dramatically.

[HonestJohn]

The risk of a major recession in the entire UK has risen dramatically.

They'll have to cut their pensioners benefits to keep the deficit at bay.  Karma at it's finest.