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Author Topic: Corrected national polling data shows Trump in the lead  (Read 378 times)

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Offline SirLinksALot

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Corrected national polling data shows Trump in the lead
« on: June 14, 2016, 04:29:45 pm »
SOURCE: AMERICAN THINKER

URL: http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2016/06/corrected_national_polling_data_shows_trump_in_the_lead.html

by: Sierra Rayne


The Guardian and SurveyUSA have released a new poll on the general election matchup among Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Gary Johnson, and Jill Stein.  The polling results claim that Trump trails Clinton by 3 percentage points, 39% to 36%, with Johnson at 6% and Stein at 4%.

Then we look at the demographic composition of the poll, and we find a massive liberal bias.

A full one third (33%) of respondents were Democrats, which is a 7% bias over the number of Republicans surveyed (26%), even though we know that on a national scale, the percentage of Democrats and Republicans is about equal.

Read the rest at-- http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2016/06/corrected_national_polling_data_shows_trump_in_the_lead.html
« Last Edit: June 14, 2016, 04:31:04 pm by AbaraXas »
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Offline bolobaby

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Re: Corrected national polling data shows Trump in the lead
« Reply #1 on: June 14, 2016, 04:48:34 pm »
Quote from: SirLinksALot on June 14, 2016, 04:29:45 pm
SOURCE: AMERICAN THINKER

URL: http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2016/06/corrected_national_polling_data_shows_trump_in_the_lead.html

by: Sierra Rayne


The Guardian and SurveyUSA have released a new poll on the general election matchup among Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Gary Johnson, and Jill Stein.  The polling results claim that Trump trails Clinton by 3 percentage points, 39% to 36%, with Johnson at 6% and Stein at 4%.

Then we look at the demographic composition of the poll, and we find a massive liberal bias.

A full one third (33%) of respondents were Democrats, which is a 7% bias over the number of Republicans surveyed (26%), even though we know that on a national scale, the percentage of Democrats and Republicans is about equal.

Read the rest at-- http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2016/06/corrected_national_polling_data_shows_trump_in_the_lead.html

Bullcrap.

1. Many republicans aren't interested in voting for Trump, ever. So oversampling Dems just helps normalize for that.

2. Trump was supposed to bring all these crossover votes, so they should be included in a Dem oversample as well, but it's just not there.

The truth is, we played this game the last two elections, believing that the republican was much closer than the polls showed. In Romney's case, there was even polls to suggest Obama was toast... then it turned out to be Romney was toast.

You can fiddle with the numbers all you want. When half of your base - the core voters you'd count on - thinks your candidate is a buffoon, you are going to lose. Badly.

Time will tell which one of us is right.
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Offline LMAO

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Re: Corrected national polling data shows Trump in the lead
« Reply #2 on: June 14, 2016, 04:58:47 pm »
November will confirm which poll is right.

Polls taken now cannot confirm either way what will happen in Nov. Events will determine. If we get more attacks such as the one in Orlando, or the economy continues it's slide, and Obamacare continues to falter, then Trump will have a huge opportunity.

Trump has a good chance to win in Nov. Not saying he will or wont. But his chances will increase if the things I've mentioned continue
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Offline andy58-in-nh

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Re: Corrected national polling data shows Trump in the lead
« Reply #3 on: June 14, 2016, 05:05:28 pm »
I have examined the polls for 2012 in great detail (an occupational hazard), and found that they were pretty much correct throughout in their sample assumptions - 31%-35% D, 24%-27% R.  The only thing that has changed since that time is a greater number of Independent "leaners".
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Online libertybele

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Re: Corrected national polling data shows Trump in the lead
« Reply #4 on: June 14, 2016, 05:07:11 pm »
Quote from: LMAO on June 14, 2016, 04:58:47 pm
November will confirm which poll is right.

Polls taken now cannot confirm either way what will happen in Nov. Events will determine. If we get more attacks such as the one in Orlando, or the economy continues it's slide, and Obamacare continues to falter, then Trump will have a huge opportunity.

Trump has a good chance to win in Nov. Not saying he will or wont. But his chances will increase if the things I've mentioned continue

All true.  Trump's chances of winning will increase IF he can get a solid conservative who is willing to run with him and IF he can become knowledgeable about the issues and give a good solid debate performance against Hillary.

If Hillary selects either Warren or Castro as her VP, Trump's chances of winning I feel are slim because of his alienation of Hispanics and women.
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