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WASHINGTON POSThttps://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/22/why-democrats-could-regain-state-legislatures-in-2016-and-its-not-just-trump/by: Amber Phillips
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Conventional wisdom says Donald Trump is going to be a nightmare for Republicans on the ballot this November. His extraordinary unpopularity could help Democrats take over the U.S. Senate this fall and chomp into or even erase Republicans' historic majority in the House of Representatives
People who study this kind of thing are projecting Democrats will also have a good year at the state legislative level -- an area where the party has been absolutely bludgeoned in the past four or so elections.
But here's the rub: It's not necessarily because of Trump. It's because Democrats have lost so many state legislatures in recent years they may have nowhere to go but up.
Republicans control 68 (or 69 when you count the nonpartisan-but-conservative Nebraska unicameral legislature) of 99 chambers, a near total reversal from six or so years ago. And this year, Democrats could stop their losing streak, predicts Louis Jacobson, a senior correspondent at PolitiFact, a Governing Magazine columnist and the senior author of the political-junkie must-have 2016 "Almanac of American Politics."
In other words, this guy knows politics. And after talking to political operatives in all 50 states, he's predicting Democratic gains in at least half a dozen state chambers -- because of Trump's unpopularity, yes, but also because Democrats are simply so far behind that they have nowhere to go but up.
Gaming out state legislative races might sound arcane, but here's our pitch for why it's something to pay attention to: These are the lawmakers who, in many states, will be redrawing the boundaries for congressional districts in 2020. These are also the people who tend to run for higher office.
So The Fix caught up with Jacobson to chat about his predictions and what they mean for the broader political narrative about Trump's effect on down-ballot races. Our conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
THE FIX: Let's back up for a minute and talk about how Democrats got to such a sorry state at the state legislative level.JACOBSON: The big story of recent years is that the Democrats have fallen on hard times in the state Houses and state Senates. In the run-up to the 2010 election, the Democrats had a 62-to-36 advantage in terms of chamber control. Now, it's 68 for the GOP and 30 for the Democrats. That's a total reversal; 2-to-1 turning 1-to-2.
THE FIX: Can we trace why Democrats lost so much ground?JACOBSON: A couple reasons. The sort of minor reason is that a whole bunch of chambers in the South that were historically Democratic are really almost entirely gone now. Leading up to 2010, those that have switched to the GOP just aren't coming back for the Democrats anytime soon.
But the bigger, national reason is that it's a long-term pattern that the party that holds the White House tends to lose stature down-ballot. This is true for every party, though it's been particularly bad for Democrats during the Obama years; the losses are a bit bigger in the congressional, gubernatorial and state legislative ranks, but it's hardly unprecedented. It's almost guaranteed at least going back to the Reagan years.
THE FIX: And why does the party in the White House tend to do worse at the state legislative level?JACOBSON: I think it's at least in part because voters see one thing at the White House level and they aren't that happy with it; they try to do a course correction at different levels. It's a check-and-balances kind of thing.
Democrats could probably do better at the lower levels if a Republican candidate won the White House, though I'm not sure they would want to make that trade off. But that would be the fastest way to get back to a competitive state for the Democrats.
THE FIX: So if, say, Donald Trump wins in November, can Democrats expect the next few state legislative elections to go great for them? Like, will it all even out in the end?JACOBSON: Well, just because it's a historical pattern doesn't mean it's not worrisome for Democrats. One of the biggest issues for them is redistricting is coming up in 2020, so if you have Republicans in control of a lot of states, they can draw the lines and sort of keep spiraling out of control in terms of Democrats.
It also hurts them in terms of the farm team: If you don't have state legislators, you don't get a good choice of candidates for governor, for Senate and House and for the president. So the longer you go with a weak team down-ballot, the harder it gets to climb out of that hole.
THE FIX: So what's the good news for Democrats this year?JACOBSON: A key reason why the Democrats have reason for optimism in 2016 is that they're already kind of at rock bottom. You can only go up from there. Combine that with the fact it's a presidential election year, so the turnout tends to be more Democratic, as opposed to midterm years.
But then the wildcard is Trump. It looked like a few weeks ago he'd be toxic all the way down the ballot, but recent polls are showing me that's not the case anymore. I think we don't know what the answer to that is; we have a lot way to go.
I did factor in the possibility that Trump could have a negative down-ballot impact in at least certain purplish states. So on the margins, that could help with Democrats. But really, fundamentally, it's that Democrats are already in a bad position and can't help but go up.
THE FIX: But even if they gain half a dozen chambers or so, that's not going to get Democrats close to reversing the 2-to-1 trend Republicans have over them.JACOBSON: Right. Getting to parity is going to take a couple of cycles. And it could go faster for them if Republicans win the White House. But we're talking changes on the margin here. And some of the chambers that changed Republican in recent years are not going to change back.
THE FIX: So what states should we be watching to see if there is indeed a Trump trend swinging even more state races in favor of Democrats?JACOBSON: There are a whole bunch of states where the Democrats do well in the presidential level and should have a shot because they are strongly competitive -- Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio.
It could be the same for state legislative races out West like in Arizona and Nevada. If the possibility of a Trump candidacy can energize Latino voters, then those are the kinds of places where Democrats picking up seats in the legislature is a possibility.
But in most of these states, it doesn't look like Democrats can actually take over one or two of those chambers in this cycle alone; it's a multi-cycle effort.
