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Game of Thrones Thread
Maj. Bill Martin:
--- Quote from: INVAR on May 23, 2016, 06:14:19 am ---I do not recall that being said. All I heard was that Blackfish gathered what was left of House Tully and retook Riverrun.
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You're right -- I was thinking Riverrun but typed Winterfell. GOT dyslexia, I suppose. Still, retaking Riverrun is a huge deal.
--- Quote ---I would not be surprised that he sends the Knights of the Vale to attack Blackfish in the hopes that Sansa is there.
--- End quote ---
Well, he told Robert right in front of Bronze Yohn Royce that Sansa was in the North, and Robert said to march north to rescue her, so LF told Royce they were marching to Winterfell. If LF subsequently changed his mind and ordered an attack on Riverrun instead, I can't see why Royce would do it -- the Arryns and Tullys were close, and that's not what Robert said. Also, LF specifically said that the Vale knights were already at Moat Cailen, heading north. He hadn't been rejected by Sansa at that point, so there's no reason to believe he's lying about that, and there would have been no reason to attack Riverrun at all.
I guess my point is that LF said, in two separate places in front of two different groups of people, that they were marching to Winterfell. I see no reason why they'd change at this point. I suspect LF will just keep the army going north anyway, figuring that his best chance with Sansa is to pull a Jorah, and stay loyal even after rejection. Attacking Riverrun doesn't seem to do much for him. He'd turn Sansa from someone who doesn't like him into an out and out enemy, he'd strain to perhaps the breaking point his authority over the Lords of the Vale, and there's a good chance he couldn't take Riverrun anyway. The Blackfish is a legendary commander, and Riverrun is a very difficult fortress to besiege.
Also, geographically, It's pretty unlikely that Sansa -- even if she had chosen to make the journey herself -- would be able to get to Riverrun before the besieging Vale Lords anyway.
INVAR:
Well, if I recall - Baelish did tell Cersei that he would attack Winterfell and that he would not rest until the Lion's banners flew over Winterfell.
I still think LF is fulfilling what he told his whores, to set the whole kingdom against itself and tear it down.
I also think Sansa sending Brienne to Riverrun was a big mistake. The Men Without Banners are there also - and if the show picks up some of what is in the books, Brienne is going to meet a bad end at the hand of someone you would not expect.
Maj. Bill Martin:
--- Quote from: INVAR on May 23, 2016, 05:15:13 pm ---Well, if I recall - Baelish did tell Cersei that he would attack Winterfell and that he would not rest until the Lion's banners flew over Winterfell.
I still think LF is fulfilling what he told his whores, to set the whole kingdom against itself and tear it down.
--- End quote ---
But didn't he also say the reason he was fomenting chaos was because it gave a chance for others -- namely himself -- to rise? I think the "chaos" part of his plan is pretty much over, and he's now trying to build a real power base. Let's say he's on the up and up with Sansa -- at least now. He's setting up an alliance -- Arryn-Tully-Stark. I think one of the reasons he pointed out that Jon was only a unlegitimized half-brother is because he wants Sansa to hold Winterfell in her own name. That gives him Robert in the Vale, Sansa in Winterfell (assuming he can win her back at some level), and the Blackfish at Riverrun, who likely will be besieged at some point by the Freys or Lannisters. Presumably, the Freys still hold Edmure Tully, though what it going to happen when the Freys find out about Walda will be interesting.
Anyway, I think LF's plan is to use the Vale's forces to tip the scales in favor of both the Tullys and the Starks. That, coupled with his influence over Robert, might (in his plan) give him the support of three Great Houses. The Lannisters are discredited because of the bastardy, the Dornish hate the Lannister and likely dislike the Tyrells for supporting the Lannisters, and the Baratheons are virtually gone. LF may think he is setting himself up to be chosen as the next King. I'm guessing that's his master plan.
One potential wrinkle -- that has to keep him up late at night -- is if Sansa were to ever spill the beans about him murdering Lysa Arryn. The whole thing would come crashing down at that point.
--- Quote ---I also think Sansa sending Brienne to Riverrun was a big mistake. The Men Without Banners are there also - and if the show picks up some of what is in the books, Brienne is going to meet a bad end at the hand of someone you would not expect.
--- End quote ---
Good point. Not sure ol' Stoneheart will come into play, but the Brotherhood without Banners running into her definitely seems a possibility, and sending her to the Riverlands then becomes a plot device for more conflict.
The show is really picking up. I think the pacing is much better than last season, but I also think there's been a decline in the quality of dialogue. They've been able to truncate GRRM's plots, but for the first time, can no longer rely on his prose.
How legit do you think the Umber alliance with Ramsay really is? Osha and Shaggy are both dead, and Bolton does have Rickon. But I'm still wondering how loyal the Umbers are. They were supposedly reknown for their loyalty -- at least in the show -- and the repeated refusal of that Umber to swear an oath to Ramsay is interesting.
I'm guessing that last battle between Ramsay and Jon is going to find Ramsay with far fewer allies than he imagined.
INVAR:
--- Quote from: Maj. Bill Martin on May 23, 2016, 05:56:33 pm ---Presumably, the Freys still hold Edmure Tully, though what it going to happen when the Freys find out about Walda will be interesting.
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Find out what about Walda Frey? Last time we saw him was his smirking over the carnage at the Red Wedding.
--- Quote from: Maj. Bill Martin on May 23, 2016, 05:56:33 pm ---LF may think he is setting himself up to be chosen as the next King. I'm guessing that's his master plan.
--- End quote ---
He has got to know that will never happen, anymore than Tywin Lannister could legitimately claim the throne, even though he ran it from behind the scenes. Baelish has no legitimate claim to the throne, unless he thinks he can subjugate the 7 kingdoms himself and claim himself king - which is not out of the realm of thinking in terms of his plans. He did set this whole thing in motion by getting Lysa to poison her husband's wine and then write a letter to Caitlyn Stark that blamed the Lannisters for it - thus setting the stage for the war he wanted between the Starks and the Lannisters. Chaos as you recalled him telling Varys, is a ladder.
--- Quote from: Maj. Bill Martin on May 23, 2016, 05:56:33 pm ---One potential wrinkle -- that has to keep him up late at night -- is if Sansa were to ever spill the beans about him murdering Lysa Arryn. The whole thing would come crashing down at that point.
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Doubtful. Sansa lied for him upon questioning by the Lords of the Vale. She would be held complicit in his treason if she admitted that.
--- Quote from: Maj. Bill Martin on May 23, 2016, 05:56:33 pm ---The show is really picking up. I think the pacing is much better than last season, but I also think there's been a decline in the quality of dialogue.
--- End quote ---
Oh I don't know. Tyrion's discussion about 'conversations in elegant rooms' was pretty good prose IMO.
--- Quote from: Maj. Bill Martin on May 23, 2016, 05:56:33 pm ---How legit do you think the Umber alliance with Ramsay really is?
--- End quote ---
That I do not know. I'm still trying to figure out why they decided to back Ramsay at all in the first place.
Maj. Bill Martin:
--- Quote from: INVAR on May 23, 2016, 06:15:44 pm ---Find out what about Walda Frey? Last time we saw him was his smirking over the carnage at the Red Wedding.
--- End quote ---
Walda -- the Frey married to Roose that Ramsay murdered. Not Walter.
--- Quote ---He has got to know that will never happen, anymore than Tywin Lannister could legitimately claim the throne, even though he ran it from behind the scenes. Baelish has no legitimate claim to the throne, unless he thinks he can subjugate the 7 kingdoms himself and claim himself king - which is not out of the realm of thinking in terms of his plans. He did set this whole thing in motion by getting Lysa to poison her husband's wine and then write a letter to Caitlyn Stark that blamed the Lannisters for it - thus setting the stage for the war he wanted between the Starks and the Lannisters. Chaos as you recalled him telling Varys, is a ladder.
--- End quote ---
Well...are there really any legitimate claimants in Westeros period? As I recall from the books, if there is no legitimate heir, then the Great Lords are free to choose a new King. Didn't Ned even propose that at some point? I think they could choose whomever they'd want. LF's plan may be to arrange things so that no member of any Great House will be acceptable to the rest, so he'd be a logical compromise choice. Nobody is going to want a Lannister in charge, Edmure is goofy, Robert is sickly, and Sansa may be disqualified because she's a girl/and/or doesn't want to leave the North. Dorne is out of it, there's no Baratheons, so....who? Maybe Mace Tyrell, but they're also tainted somewhat by their support of the Lannisters, and Mace is a doofus.
But if you have a crown that is massively in debt, and a very smart guy who is a wizard with money and has been on the Small Council...I think he may see himself as a plausible compromise candidate. The guy who can "hold things together" without alienating other Houses and who can get the Crown out of debt isn't a bad choice. And he is now technically the Lord of Harrenhal as well -- which is a major title that might make him a more acceptable contender. Otherwise...where is his ladder going? Being on the Small Council wasn't enough for him, and being Lord of Harrenhal isn't enough. So if he's still scheming, what is left for him other than the Crown? Sure, it's a tough play, but I think it's the only thing that makes sense as his ultimate goal.
--- Quote ---Doubtful. Sansa lied for him upon questioning by the Lords of the Vale. She would be held complicit in his treason if she admitted that.
--- End quote ---
Given the circumstances -- "he told me I was wanted for the death of Joffrey and that you'd turn me over to Cersei Lannister" -- her being merely a witness isn't something I think they'd hold against her. After all, all the Lords of the Vale were manipulated by him to some extent, and so I think they'd have some pity on a teenage girl who had her family murdered, and who did eventually tell them the truth. She didn't kill Lysa herself -- she just covered for LF because she was terrified.
After all, what would they do to her if she told them? She's still Sansa Stark, and I doubt they'd try to punish her and go to war with the Starks. In any case, she'd certainly get off more lightly than LF would, so if she had the cojones to rat him out, he'd be sunk. I do think you're right in that "she wouldn't dare tell" is what LF is telling himself, but I also think he knows it isn't a certainty.
--- Quote ---Oh I don't know. Tyrion's discussion about 'conversations in elegant rooms' was pretty good prose IMO.
--- End quote ---
That was pretty good.
--- Quote ---That I do not know. I'm still trying to figure out why they decided to back Ramsay at all in the first place.
--- End quote ---
It makes sense for the Karstarks - they're complicit in the murder of Robb and other Northern Lords, so they're kind of stuck with the Boltons. The Umber explanation was that Jon was a traitor who let the wildings in, so they need help to defeat the wildings and put in a better Lord Commander. Just not sure I buy it.
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