http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2591377?platform=hootsuiteByron York: In a red state, Donald Trump's enormous challengeBy BYRON YORK (@BYRONYORK) • 5/14/16 9:43 PM
Paul Ryan aside, Donald Trump has actually won the support — or at least the non-opposition — of a significant part of the national Republican power structure. But as Trump works to win over the rest of the GOP leadership, he still faces real problems in some unexpected places. For example, South Carolina — stalwart, deep-red South Carolina — has become a leading example of a solidly conservative state with Republican leadership still unreconciled to a Trump victory.
Of course, Trump is going to win South Carolina in the general election. But everything is easier if the state's governing establishment is on a candidate's side. And Trump's problems with that establishment were on painful display recently when the South Carolina GOP held its annual convention and fundraising dinner. Presidential politics is huge in South Carolina, and every May of every presidential election year, the dinner teems with presidential talk, with party officials leading the way. But not this year.
Gov. Nikki Haley gave two speeches, one on at the dinner on Friday, May 6 and one at the convention the next day. At neither did Haley mention the name Donald Trump, or refer to the party's presumptive nominee, or even take note of the fact that there is a presidential election this year.
"There's so much to talk about," Haley said at the dinner. She proceeded to pay tribute to members of the armed services. She paid tribute to the spouses of members of the armed services. She discussed big companies bringing business to the state — Boeing, Mercedes, tire manufacturers. She talked about welfare reform. Prison reform. But no mention of the presidential election.
In her remarks to the convention the next day, Haley focused on hyper-local matters: roads, ethics reform, rural development, taxes, flood recovery, and more. Haley talked about everything, it seemed, except the coming presidential election.
Other speakers, top Republicans in the state, referenced the election but did not utter the name Donald Trump. (State GOP chairman Matt Moore was one exception.)
The situation was far different four years ago. At the party dinner on May 19, 2012, when Mitt Romney was the presumptive Republican nominee, Haley was all about presidential politics. "We are so thrilled, because we all come here united," Haley said. "United on what South Carolina is going to do in November and united on what our country is going to do in November."
"We know a lot of things," Haley continued, "but what I know is, I need a partner in Washington." Haley went on to explain that she needed a partner — a Republican president — who would work with her on illegal immigration, voting reform, health care, and other issues." She spoke effusively of Sen. Marco Rubio, who had come to the dinner to speak on Romney's behalf.
The night, in other words, was about presidential politics. But that was 2012. This is the year of Trump.
The crowd this year was filled with the kind of party people who would never have considered supporting Trump. Actually, not filled; attendance was noticeably lower than past presidential years. "I talked to 100 people," said one veteran state politico. "It was pretty somber. A lot of it was Trump."
Yes, the dinner took place just days after Ted Cruz stunned Republicans by pulling out of the GOP race. But where were the Trump supporters? "Most of the Trump people have never done the party stuff," noted the politico. "You would have had to be involved at the precinct level a year ago." What Trump support there was — and a number of attendees sported Trump hats — was mostly people who had gotten gotten behind the presumptive nominee in recent days.
To the degree that establishment types followed Haley's leadership, the dinner was a reminder that they were hoping for an entirely different outcome this year. In the week before the February 20 South Carolina primary, Haley endorsed Marco Rubio, joining Sen. Tim Scott and Rep. Trey Gowdy in supporting the Florida senator. Haley and the others spent the final days of the race crisscrossing South Carolina campaigning for Rubio. But Haley was talking about more than just Marco Rubio; she proposed a new vision for South Carolina Republicanism.
Haley, who is Indian-American, has made no secret of her desire to move beyond the old, white GOP. Campaigning with the Hispanic-American Rubio, the African-American Scott, and the white Gowdy, Haley showcased the group's ethnic and racial diversity. "I'm going to invite up my friends Tim Scott, Trey Gowdy, and you're going to look at what the new conservative movement looks like," Haley said at a campaign event with Rubio in Columbia on election eve. "Because it looks like a Benetton commercial. Look at this!"
At another Rubio event that day, in North Charleston, Haley discussed the healing process after last year's racial murders. Voting for Rubio, she suggested, would be another step in that process. "We went through a lot in 2015," Haley said. "And you showed your strength. And you showed your grace. And tomorrow we have a chance to continue to show that's who we are…This is the new look of the conservative movement. Help us take Marco Rubio to Washington!"
As Haley and Rubio stood together, Rubio's pollster, Whit Ayres, happened to walk by. "I love this picture," he said, nodding toward the stage. "That's the new America, and it's Republican and conservative."
But that wasn't the GOP in South Carolina. According to exit polls, the electorate in the Republican primary was 96 percent white. Trump won by ten points. The South Carolina Republican electorate was not the new America, at least not yet.
So what now? What next for those South Carolina Republicans who were not #NeverTrumpers but who strongly felt Trump was the wrong candidate? "Most people are going to realize their choice is Trump or Hillary, and they're going to get on board," said the veteran politico.
"People will come around," said another state pol. "You've got your choice now. Elections are about choices, and four Supreme Court justices are going to be important to people."
But coming around goes just so far. "Will they be passionate, will they be writing checks, will they be knocking on doors?" asked the pol. "Probably not."
Donald Trump could likely make a huge difference in the enthusiasm gap if he reached out, even at this late date, to the local political world not just in South Carolina but in other states. In a recent conversation, a TrumpWorld source said the campaign realizes the task is both urgent and daunting: reach out to all the former candidates, their major supporters, 50 state Republican chairman, 168 members of the Republican National Committee, statewide elected GOP leaders — "literally thousands of people."
It's unclear whether Trump is willing or able to make that kind of effort. But if he did, it would do him a world of good. The day before the South Carolina dinner, I got an email, unsolicited, from a longtime Bush supporter and donor in the state. "My wife asked me what the Bush folks will do now," the supporter said. "I told her we felt like a young couple with a new, not-so-pretty baby. We are proud he is ours, pretty or not."
