Donald Trump swept last week's primaries with commanding margins, looking for the first time like a solid front-runner rather than a plurality favorite. With his opponents' room for strategic maneuvering dwindling rapidly—rendering tomorrow's Indiana primary a make-or-break win for Cruz—Trump must turn his attention to the general election.
Trump's primary performance has been remarkable. He has leveraged his reputation, his celebrity, and the sheer force of his personality to convince more than ten million Americans that he would be a great president. By June, that number will likely fall between twelve and thirteen million. Every poll of Trump's supporters suggests that their enthusiasm is real and their commitment unwavering.
In each of the past three presidential elections, however, the losing candidate has received over fifty-nine million votes; the 2016 winner will need at least sixty million, likely many more than that.
To win in November using only his primary strategy, Trump will thus have to retain all of his supporters (which seems likely), and add four times as many new voters who appreciate his innate greatness, but did not participate in a Republican primary (which seems unlikely)...
More at:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/02/donald-trump-vs-hillary-clinton-the-candidate-who-stinks-less-will-win-commentary.html
