Here’s What We Know About A Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton General Election

[Free Vulcan]

Donald Trump became the presumptive Republican nominee with Tuesday’s win in Indiana and the departure of Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. Assuming Hillary Clinton sews up the Democratic nomination, we can turn to the general election. So what would a Trump vs. Clinton race look like?

If the general election was tomorrow, Trump would get trumped. HuffPost Pollster’s polling average shows him losing to Clinton, 47 percent to 40 percent, with 9 percent undecided.

Trump would lose to either Clinton or to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, according to the general election polls so far. But Sanders has no clear path to the Democratic nomination. Yes, he won Indiana, but not by anywhere near the margin he needed to stay competitive. Clinton is 10 percent ahead of Sanders in the delegate race — that’s more than Barack Obama had over Clinton at this point in 2008. Even Sanders’ most fanatical supporters seem to acknowledge he doesn’t have a path to getting a pledged delegate majority.

So we’re looking at Trump vs. Clinton. HuffPost Pollster has been tracking the matchup since the first poll testing these two candidates against each other in May 2015. The early polls meant nothing — Trump hadn’t even announced his candidacy yet — but it’s there on our chart, with Clinton leading 50-32.

Astonishingly, there have been 139 more polls pitting Trump against Clinton since then. Most of those didn’t mean anything when they came out. Polls on the general election are widely regarded as unreliable until about April or May of the election year — at which point they become about halfway reliable. And this year, with more candidates and longer primary contests than usual, the early polls could be even more unreliable than in the past.

Fortunately, there have been 26 Clinton vs. Trump polls since April 1. So, even assuming that polls before then were meaningless, we have a lot of data.



Trump hasn’t come close to Clinton in those polls. The shaded bands around the trend lines mean that 95 percent of the time, that candidate’s share would be within the shaded range. Those bands don’t overlap, so we can be pretty certain that Clinton leads in the polling average.

More at:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-polls_us_57295dd9e4b096e9f08faf18

[R4 TrumPence]

Huffington Post????

Use the NBC poll 

[Free Vulcan]

Huffington Post????

Use the NBC poll 

Actually they're taking 26 recent polls and averaging. Good data set there even if it's the Huff.

[EC]

Remove the two Ramunsen outliers and it goes from looking bad to looking horrific. As many of us have insisted since January, to no avail.

Still, we'll see. It's going to be treated as a done deal now, so peoples heads will get set on November soon enough to give way more accurate results.

[elhombrelibre]

Remove the two Ramunsen outliers and it goes from looking bad to looking horrific. As many of us have insisted since January, to no avail.

Still, we'll see. It's going to be treated as a done deal now, so peoples heads will get set on November soon enough to give way more accurate results.

Republican voters have committed suicide in backing Trump.  He's created a cult that admires his irrational and dishonest statements and believes that ideas do not matter.  Once you get past Trump's putative Republican affiliation, you end up with a narcissist like Obama, a dishonest person, like Hillary, and the most unpopular man to run for president in modern times.  The misstatements and contradictions, the ignorance of policy and the US Constitution, and the egomania are all risible at best and going to lead to a slaughter.  How in the world did we manage to pick a candidate that is even less popular than Hillary?  We did it by turning off critical thinking and believing a lifelong, self-serving charlatan. 

[EC]

Nah. trump didn't create the cult. That's ALL on his supporters.

[A-Lert]

Nah. trump didn't create the cult. That's ALL on his supporters.

Trump supporters have been called almost everything imaginable, What next axe murderers and puppy killers? Sheesh!

[Free Vulcan]

Trump supporters have been called almost everything imaginable, What next axe murderers and puppy killers? Sheesh!

Politics is a tough dirty business. Better get a thicker skin.

[EC]

Stop whining. You sound like Donny.

[A-Lert]

Politics is a tough dirty business. Better get a thicker skin.

I didn't throw my name in that hat this cycle. I just get a kick out of all the "civility". 

[Free Vulcan]

I didn't throw my name in that hat this cycle. I just get a kick out of all the "civility". 

Yeah we know Trump did what he had tdo do. Politics is a dirty nasty business. You gotta do and say what it takes to get the win, civility be damned.

[A-Lert]

Yeah we know Trump did what he had tdo do. Politics is a dirty nasty business. You gotta do and say what it takes to get the win, civility be damned.

All the candidates did what they had to do. One was more efficient, the  winner.

[John W]

All the candidates did what they had to do. One was more efficient, the  winner.

Based on his grass roots disorganization he'll have great difficulty in November.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Now begins the great 6 month effort on part of his foolish supporters of denying the polls and claiming they're biased or "skewed".

It was disastrous in 2012 and it will be disastrous in 2016.

[John W]

Now begins the great 6 month effort on part of his foolish supporters of denying the polls and claiming they're biased or "skewed".

It was disastrous in 2012 and it will be disastrous in 2016.

Afraid of more disastrous. We think current GOP Senate & House haven't been on our side? We'll find out how much has been stymied with Dem Senate, House, Govs and lib SCOTUS for generations. So idiotic.

[A-Lert]

Based on his grass roots disorganization he'll have great difficulty in November.

Wait until Mark "Oz" Geist, John "TIG" Tiegen and Michael T. Flynn hit the campaign trail for Trump.

[eartick]

Afraid of more disastrous. We think current GOP Senate & House haven't been on our side? We'll find out how much has been stymied with Dem Senate, House, Govs and lib SCOTUS for generations. So idiotic.

Yes Yes what to do what to do...... 

This presidential race will be pitting two left leaning liberals against each other both who could give a tinkers damn about the Constitution or the peoples freedoms and only interested in their own self interest and POWER.

Yes Yes what to do what to do......

[MBB1984]

You have three choices.  1.  You can defecate and urinate in your panties  2.  You can support that moral paradigm Hillary Clinton or you can do what I am going to do:

3.  Support the GOP nominee

[kartographer]

Trump supporters have been called almost everything imaginable, What next axe murderers and puppy killers? Sheesh!

Lumping Axe Murdereres and Puppy Killers in with Trump supporters seems a bit harsh on Axe Murdereres and Puppy Killers, don't you think?

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

You have three choices.  1.  You can defecate and urinate in your panties  2.  You can support that moral paradigm Hillary Clinton or you can do what I am going to do:

3.  Support the GOP nominee

Based on Trump's transgender support I would say it's his supporters who are doing the micturating in the panties.

[cato potatoe]

[sinkspur]

You have three choices.  1.  You can defecate and urinate in your panties  2.  You can support that moral paradigm Hillary Clinton or you can do what I am going to do:

3.  Support the GOP nominee

4. Support neither Hillary nor Donald.   That's where most of us are, it seems to me.

[sinkspur]

[geronl]

You have three choices.  1.  You can defecate and urinate in your panties  2.  You can support that moral paradigm Hillary Clinton or you can do what I am going to do:

3.  Support the GOP nominee

4. Vote for someone else.

[Frank Cannon]

You have three choices.  1.  You can defecate and urinate in your panties  2.  You can support that moral paradigm Hillary Clinton or you can do what I am going to do:

3.  Support the GOP nominee

I'll pick #2 with a side of fries because we have just found out that there is actually someone worse that Hitlary Clintoon. His name is Donny Trump.